2024 Goodyear 400 Odds: Favorites, sleeper picks for Darlington
A historically close finish in Kansas gives way to one of the unique tracks on the calendar
The NASCAR Cup Series took a cue from the Kentucky Derby last weekend in Kansas. After Mystik Dan won one of the closest Derbys in history, Kyle Larson held off Chris Buescher in the closest finish in Cup Series history.
Larson won his second race of the year by just 0.001 seconds. Now, the grid heads to South Carolina for the first Darlington race of the season, and the 2024 Goodyear 400 Odds favor a repeat winner.
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2024 Goodyear 400 Odds: Favorites this week
Kyle Larson (+400)
Larson’s win in Kansas opens up a gap at the top of the NASCAR standings. The Hendrick Motorsports driver now has a 29-point advantage at the top, powered by a series-leading 143 stage points.
He’s been one of the form drivers lately, with four top-three finishes in the last six events.
Darlington is a solid track for Larson. Twelve career Cup Series races there have yielded one win and another five top-five finishes.
He’s finished outside the top 10 just four times in his career and should at least be near the front once again.
Denny Hamlin (+425)
After winning his third race of the season in Dover, Hamlin managed fifth in Kansas. He won Stage One and led the most laps in the process.
It’s another solid result after two rough finishes in Texas and Talladega for the Joe Gibbs Racing driver.
No active driver can match Hamlin’s success at Darlington. He’s won four races there in his career and finished in the top 10 an incredible 16 times out of 23 events.
Last time out in Darlington was a tough result – 25th after starting second on the grid and leading 177 laps – but he should be in for a good finish. Wins in 2020 and 2021 reflect how good Hamlin can be at this track.
Martin Truex Jr. (+650)
Truex Jr. continues to be a picture of consistency on the NASCAR race schedule this season. He came home fourth in Kansas to continue his season-long run of never finishing lower than 18th.
No other driver can match that in the Cup Series this year.
But will he finally break through for a win this week? He’s had bad luck in Darlington lately, with DNFs in three of his last four races.
He started this race from pole position last year and led 145 laps before crashing out with 15 laps to go. A top-10 finish is a near-lock for Truex Jr. given his form but it’s hard to feel confident about a win considering his recent run here.
Tyler Reddick (+700)
Reddick’s fallen off slightly following his win in Talladega. Eleventh in Dover and 20th in Kansas ended his run of top-10 results. He’s still fifth in the Cup Series standings but a ways off from fourth-place Hamlin.
Darlington’s been a good track for Reddick so far. In just nine career races there, Reddick has the third-best average finish (11.3) on the grid behind only Hamlin and Larson.
He’s finished in the top 10 four times in that span, highlighted by his performance in the playoffs there last year. He led 90 laps en route to second place. His consistency there could help him bank a result and close the gap to the top four in the championship.
William Byron (+800)
Byron is one of just two drivers with three wins in 2024 (along with Hamlin). Things haven’t been great the last two weeks, with two of his worst finishes of the year in Dover (33rd) and Kansas (23rd).
But he’s turned things around quickly before this season. He classified 35th in Bristol before winning from pole position in Austin a week later.
Byron won this race last year from fourth on the grid despite leading just seven laps. In the playoffs, he climbed up the ranks from 23rd at the start to fourth by the chequered flag.
He’s finished in the top 10 in five of his last seven NASCAR races in Darlington. He’s well-positioned for a bounce-back race this weekend.
Sleepers in Darlington
Christopher Bell (+1000)
Bell’s first pole position of the year in Kansas only translated to sixth by the chequered flag, but that’s a good turnaround. Before that sixth-place finish, Bell had a run of four races outside the top 15.
Darlington hasn’t been especially good for Bell, with two top-10 results in nine career races there.
But his form earlier in the season gives confidence that he can string together top results again, including a potential surprise this weekend.
Chris Buescher (+2200)
Buescher came historically close to a win last week in Kansas. He won Stage Two and held on for one of his best finishes of the season. Oddly enough, his best results have been two second-place finishes behind a Larson win.
Buescher has been solid but unspectacular at Darlington historically. Thirteen career events there have yielded just four top-10 results. But he showed last year that he can get hot at the right time and bank multiple wins.
Even his second place in Las Vegas earlier this year preceded a strong run of top-10 finishes. A win wouldn’t be out of the question.
Joey Logano (+2500)
Logano’s odds are more of a reflection of his recent form. Kansas saw one of his worst finishes of the year so far in being classified 34th. That ended a run of six races in the top 20.
Yet no one can match Logano’s form in Darlington over the last 10 races. His average finish (ninth) is the best among active drivers. He won this race from pole position in 2022 and started on pole in the fall race there later that season.
Last time out in Darlington, he finished sixth after starting 12th. His recent form is off but his track record make him a high-reward choice for NASCAR predictions.
Erik Jones (+3500)
Talk about more high-payout picks with a good track record. Jones is quietly one of the best drivers in Darlington in recent history. He’s won twice in the last 10 events there.
That’s the same as Hamlin and one more than both Larson and Byron. He struggled in these races last year but with his history and these NASCAR odds makes for an ideal sleeper pick.
2024 Goodyear 400 Odds: Picks for Darlington
Cup Series history gives way to another unique track on the NASCAR calendar. Darlington’s a challenging circuit with its one-of-a-kind egg-shaped design and variable banking.
Of the favorites, we like Truex Jr. to break through and make amends for last year’s missed opportunity. Of the sleepers, we like Logano or Jones as high-reward flyers with potential.
For NASCAR betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
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