2024 NCAA Tournament Second Round Preview: Dayton vs Arizona
Flyers Will Give Wildcats A Challenge
After pulling off one of the more improbable comebacks you’ll ever see, the Dayton Flyers are in the Second Round and will face off with the Arizona Wildcats in Salt Lake City on Saturday.
Dayton was down by 17 points to Nevada with 7.5 minutes left on Thursday and rolled off a 24-4 run to finish the game and stun the Wolf Pack in a 63-60 win. Now, they’ll take on an Arizona team that withstood a shaky first half to handle business against Long Beach State. The Dayton vs Arizona betting lines have the Wildcats as nine-point favorites.
The Flyers looked like they had no chance against Nevada until more than halfway through the second half when top scorers DaRon Holmes III and Nate Santos — who had quiet games up until that point — started getting hot at the same time Dayton’s defense completely shut the Wolf Pack down.
It was equal parts comeback by the Flyers and collapse by Nevada but, at the end of the day, Anthony Grant’s team will take it. Dayton’s comeback was tied for the fifth-biggest in the history of the Big Dance is one of those NCAA Tournament dates for remember for sure.
Arizona struggled a bit early on against Long Beach State, particularly on defense, but the Wildcats were able to lock in and pull away with a 44-point second half.
Led by Kylan Boswell’s 20 points, all five Arizona starters scored in double figures as Tommy Lloyd‘s team knocked down 13 threes, an usually high number based on their regular season.
Dayton Flyers vs Arizona Wildcats 
Day/Time:
Location: Delta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah
Streaming: CBS
Wildcats Will Push Pace
It’s tough to find two teams that play with such different offensive styles as Dayton and Arizona. The Flyers have Division 1’s 336th-fastest pace per KenPom, and, as a result, they’ve taken close to the fewest field goal attempts per game of any team in the country.
Their strategy is to slow the game down, limit the amount of possessions either team has and force the opposition to earn their points as Dayton rarely fouls and allows just 12.7 free throws attempt per contest — the second-fewest nationally.
On the flip side, Arizona has the 16th-fastest pace and is third in points per game. The Arizona Wildcats shoot early and, often and, critically, at a very high efficiency.
They’re 19th in the country in field goal percentage (48.7%) and 21st in three-point percentage (37.1%). Put all of that together and it’s not a surprise why the Dayton vs Arizona betting lines have the Wildcats as a solid favorite and why the over/under is 149.5 points.
If this game turns into a track meet, then Dayton has no chance because the Flyers just can’t keep up with Arizona’s scoring ability.
So, the Flyers will need to control the pace and avoid committing turnovers—which they’re good at—to keep Arizona off the free-throw line and off the fastbreak. If you can force Arizona to score in the halfcourt, you have a much better chance of pulling off the upset.
There’s a reason why the Wildcats have decent NCAA basketball odds to win the championship, and it’s because they’re good at dictating the type of game that they want to play.
Dayton Needs To Let It Fly
Another thing Dayton has to do if the Flyers are going to win is take and make a lot of threes. They have the third-best three-point efficiency (over 40%) in the country but only take around 23.5 threes per game.
That number will need to be much higher on Saturday for Dayton simply to keep up with Arizona’s tendencies. The Flyers aren’t comfortable shooting high volumes of shots, but with Arizona’s talent advantage, they’ll have to concede at least a little bit.
The Dayton vs Arizona betting lines don’t think Dayton Flyers can match Arizona’s output, and that’s probably true on an overall level. But, what Dayton can do is rein in the Wildcats’ tempo a bit by slowing down their own possession and taking care of the ball, which would then make it more challenging for Arizona to unilaterally speed the game up.
That would mean fewer breakout opportunities for the Wildcats and more halfcourt sets where they aren’t as comfortable. Dayton does like playing the halfcourt, so that type of game would be perfect for the Flyers.
Dayton needs to concede with shot selection. Of course, the Flyers won’t change their entire offensive system, which has worked all season. Still, they need to hunt three-point opportunities because shooting is their strength. In the tournament, you just need one or two guys to get hot—or even just one big spurt, like Dayton had against Nevada—to totally flip the tide of a game.
That’s Dayton’s formula for success on Saturday, and while it isn’t super-likely to work, it should be enough for them to cover nine points.
For NCAAB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
