Purdue Is One Win Away From Competing For A National Title

The NC State Wolfpack became just the sixth team in NCAA history to get into the Final Four as an 11-seed.

While this is surprising to many, after NC State won the ACC Tournament, it was clear that the Wolfpack were playing their best basketball of the season. It’s just crazy to think that a team that finished the regular season 17-14 is now playing in the Final Four.

The Wolfpack have played against plenty of challenging teams. But this Final Four matchup against Purdue will be its most difficult. The Boilermakers have only lost two games since February 18 and have already knocked off Gonzaga and Tennessee in their last two games.

Purdue opened as a 9.5-point favorite but is now at -8.5, juiced to -120. Meanwhile, the total has since dropped from 146.5 at open to 145.5.

Let’s look at the NC State vs Purdue lines for this Final Four matchup. The winner of this game will head to the National Championship game! An 11-seed has never reached that stage in the Tournament’s history.

NC State vs Purdue Lines & Trends

The NC State Wolfpack weren’t profitable against the spread this season. However, they have had so much success in the NCAA Tournament that they’re now 20-19-1 against the spread this season. That’s still not a profitable record, assuming each line was at -110, but seeing how far the Wolfpack has come is fascinating.

Meanwhile, North Carolina State has hit the Over in 22 games this season. However, the Wolfpack’s last two games have gone Under against Marquette and Duke.

On the other hand, Purdue has covered all four games in the NCAA Tournament. The Boilermakers are now 21-15-1 against the spread and have also hit the Over in 23 games this year.

But like NC State, the Under has hit in two straight games. This could be due to the basketballs being a bit inflated this Tournament. Many teams have struggled to shoot the ball consistently from deep because of it.

Maybe the NCAA will listen and fix the balls for the Final Four.

Anyway, the last time Purdue and NC State played was in 2021. This was at North Carolina State, but Purdue earned an 82-72 win in overtime. Still, the Wolfpack won against the spread as 14.5-point underdogs, even at home.

DJ Burns To The NFL?

The NC State Wolfpack were seconds away from losing an ACC Tournament to Virginia. All Virginia had to do was make one of two foul shots to ice the game. Instead, Virginia missed both and gave NC State a chance, down three, with seconds to go. The Wolfpack scored a desperation three to tie the game in regulation and beat Virginia in that ACC Tournament game to move on.

The rest is history. NC State won the ACC and earned a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Some believed the run would finally end for the Wolfpack. But it hasn’t. NC State is now in the Final Four and plays some really impressive basketball every night.

DJ Burns has been the captivating star for the Wolfpack. He’s 6-foot-9 and 275 lbs. In the first four NCAA Tournament games, the left-hander has averaged more than 18 points per game. He’s also added five rebounds and 3.5 assists.

You’d think NBA scouts would be interested in Burns. But it’s actually NFL scouts that are salivating over Burns. The NFL scouts love his size and agility.

Zach Edey Proving All The Doubters Wrong

Many colleges overlooked Zach Edey before he landed at Purdue. He hasn’t forgotten those coaches who didn’t give him a chance.

At Purdue, some said he was only on a roster for his size. He debunked that myth with excellent footwork and defense and became a quality foul shooter.

But after last year’s loss to Fairleigh Dickinson in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year, many thought Purdue was a fluke.

He proved those doubters wrong too. After scoring 40 points against Tense, the Purdue big man shined to help lead the Boilermakers into the Final Four.

He’ll get a chance to take on DJ Burns in what should be an electric matchup between the two bigs on the second game of the Final Four schedule.

North Carolina State’s Run Will Finally End

Purdue has way more going for them than North Carolina State. Sure, the Wolfpack have a bunch of graduates on their roster. But Purdue? They have the best player in the nation, who has won the AP Player of the Year for two consecutive years.

The Boilermakers also have the best shot-makers in America. They’re second in the nation in three-point shooting, hitting 40.6% from downtown.

North Carolina State has only nailed 34.7% from three and 50.4% from inside the arc. That doesn’t compare to Purdue’s numbers on offense, where the Boilermakers have also shot 53.7%.

While Purdue won’t force a higher rate of turnovers, the Boilermakers have held NCAAB teams to 24% of offensive rebounds and rarely foul teams. That typically works out well for them because Edey and the Boilermakers get fouled at a very high rate.

Purdue should end up winning the foul-shot battle. It’s also very likely Purdue wins on the glass, as it earned 38% of offensive rebounds this season.

North Carolina State has been above-average defensively, but the Wolfpack have done nothing eye-popping defensively. Purdue is elite on both ends. North Carolina State has just been average throughout the year.

When it all began, NC State had +25000 March Madness odds to win the Tournament. That number has dropped significantly. However, the Wolfpack still has the lowest probability of winning the Tournament of the four teams.

That’s why we don’t mind laying the -8.5 (-120) with Purdue in the Final Four when looking at the NC State vs Purdue lines. Purdue will be one of our best bets today, so lock it in!

For NCAAB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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