Arizona Bowl – Wyoming vs Toledo Free Picks
2023 Arizona Bowl: Toledo Drops to 4-Point Underdog
After losing in the Mid-American Championship Game, Toledo has a prime opportunity to bounce back when it faces Wyoming in the Arizona Bowl on Dec. 30. But to do so, the Rockets must overcome the absence of their most important player.
The Rockets opened as 1.5-point favorites on the college football betting line but have since dropped to 4-point underdogs. They’re also +154 on the moneyline, with Wyoming coming in at -185 to win outright. The projected total is 44.5, slightly down from 45.5.
Can Toledo pull off the upset? Read on as we break down both NCAAF teams and give our picks for the 2023 Arizona Bowl.
Arizona Bowl
Rockets vs Cowboys 
Day/Time:
Records: Toledo (11-2)/Wyoming (8-4)
Location: Arizona Stadium; Tucson, Ariz.
Streaming: CW Network, Barstool
Finn’s Departure Looms Large
Toledo dropped the Mid-American Conference Championship Game to Miami of Ohio, ending its 11-game winning streak. But the Rockets suffered an even bigger loss in the days to follow when star quarterback Dequan Finn entered the NCAA transfer portal. Finn, who has since committed to Baylor, threw for 2,657 yards, 22 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also ran for 563 yards and seven touchdowns, leading the Rockets to an 11-2 record.
Left guard Vinny Sciury, a three-year starter and All-MAC performer, also plans to transfer.
Finn was named the MAC Offensive Player of the Year after leading the conference in total offense. Toledo still has its share of capable playmakers, but without Finn the Rockets’ offense is greatly marginalized.
Backup Tucker Gleason, who appeared in three games this season, is expected to replace him for the 2023 Arizona Bowl. Gleason completed 14 of 21 passes for 199 yards and four touchdowns, with most of his work coming in garbage time.
The Rockets were a bit unpredictable for bettors despite reaching double-digit wins, going 6-7 ATS. They were favored in every game with the exception of their season-opening loss to Illinois, in which they were a 7.5-point underdog. Bettors should keep that in mind when making their NCAAF picks and parlays.
Last Hurrah for Bohl
Comparatively speaking, Wyoming’s roster is in good shape for the 2023 Arizona Bowl. The Cowboys have been able to retain most of their key players with the exception of cornerback Kolbey Taylor (transferred to Vanderbilt), who didn’t play in the final two games of the NCAAF regular season.
Craig Bohl, one of the winningest coaches in program history, is planning on retiring following the bowl.
Wyoming went 8-4 to gain college bowl eligibility for the third straight season and fourth time in five years. The Cowboys earned some impressive wins along the way, beating the likes of Texas Tech and Fresno State, which at the time had won 14 straight games and was ranked No. 24 in the AP poll.
The Cowboys were among the most profitable teams for bettors, going 7-4-1 ATS. That includes a 3-3 mark ATS (6-0 SU) as a favorite. They’ve covered in three of their last four games.
No Finn, No Chance? … Well
The Rockets averaged 33.6 points, ranking 27th in FBS. But again, they’re not nearly as dangerous without Finn. His absence makes this one of the tougher bowl games to peg.
That said, bettors shouldn’t be quick to rule out the Rockets. Jason Candle has elevated Toledo into one of the country’s best programs at the Group of Five level, enough so that he’s in the mix for some bigger head coaching jobs. This is the Rockets’ first double-digit win season since 2017, when it went 11-3 and lost in the formerly named Dollar General Bowl.
PICK
Toledo may have trouble beating Wyoming without Finn, but it’s better than some oddsmakers are giving it credit for. While we’re taking Wyoming outright at -185, Toledo’s our pick to cover the 4-point spread. We’d take the Rockets down to +3.
We’re also siding with Over 44.5 despite Toledo’s recent success against the Under. The Rockets have gone Under the total in five of their last seven NCAAF games.
For college bowl scores, betting odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
