Cotton Bowl Classic – Ohio State vs Missouri Free Picks
2023 Cotton Bowl: Ohio State Falls to +2.5
Ohio State’s national championship hopes are over, but the No. 7 Buckeyes still have the opportunity to salvage a bittersweet end to their season. They’re headed to face No. 9 Missouri in the Cotton Bowl Classic on Dec. 29 at AT&T Stadium, home of the NFL’s Dallas Cowboys.
Because of potential transfers and opt-outs, Ohio State has gone from a 6.5-point favorite to 2.5-point underdog. The Buckeyes are also +114 on the moneyline, with Missouri priced -135 to win outright. Meanwhile, the Over/Under has dropped from its opening total of 51.5 to 48.5.
What can bettors expect? We update the statuses of both teams before giving our 2023 Cotton Bowl odds.
Cotton Bowl Classic
Tigers vs Buckeyes 
Day/Time:
Records: Missouri (10-2) at Ohio State (11-1)
Location: AT&T Stadium; Arlington, Texas
Streaming: ESPN, ESPN+
Statement Opportunity Awaits Mizzou
Missouri had a breakthrough season under head coach Eli Drinkwitz, winning 10 games and making a New Year’s Six bowl. But the Tigers aren’t done. A program-altering opportunity awaits.
Accordingly, Missouri is expected to have virtually its entire team available for the 2023 Cotton Bowl, with the exception of maybe cornerback Ennis Rakestraw. That’s certainly good news for those who watched quarterback Brady Cook throw for 3,189 yards and 20 touchdowns this NCAAF season.
Missouri ranked 25th in both yards per game (442.9) and scoring (34.1 PPG). The Tigers scored 30 points or more 10 times, with the exception of a 23-19 victory over Middle Tennessee and a 30-21 loss to Georgia.
Notably the Tigers were among the most profitable teams for bettors, covering the spread in eight of their 12 games. As a favorite, Missouri was 4-3 ATS and 7-0 OU. It also went Over the projected total eight times, matching the seventh highest rate (66.7%) in FBS. Bettors should keep that in mind when analyzing odds for the 2023 Cotton Bowl.
Transfers, Opt-Outs Loom Over Buckeyes
Ohio State went 11-1 but missed an opportunity to return to the College Football Playoff, losing 30-24 to rival Michigan on Nov. 25. The Buckeyes, 3-point underdogs, failed to cover the spread for the first time in four NCAAF games.
After climbing as high as No. 2 in the AP poll, the Buckeyes are surely feeling a bit disappointed. It’s NCAA title or bust for Ryan Day’s team, and they fell short of that goal this season.
As such, the Buckeyes are dealing with quite a few potential opt-outs and transfers. For starters, quarterback Kyle McCord transferred to Syracuse, leaving sophomore Devin Brown to take over for the college bowl game. Brown saw limited action in five games this season, completing 12 of 22 passes for 197 yards.
Close to a dozen Buckeyes have joined McCord in the NCAA transfer portal, including receiver Julian Fleming.
Fortunately for the Buckeyes, receiver Emeka Egbuka, defensive end Jack Sawyer and cornerback Denzel Burke have all announced they will play in the college bowl. But the status of All-American receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. remains unknown.
Harrison Jr. was a Heisman Trophy finalist after catching 67 passes for 1,211 yards and 14 touchdowns and could opt out to prepare for the NFL Draft, where’s he’s a projected top-5 pick. But he’s yet to decide.
Tigers a Unique Test
Ohio State won’t have its full roster, leaving oddsmakers to tab the Buckeyes as an underdog for only the second time this season. McCord’s absence certainly hurts, but the Buckeyes have enough playmakers on the outside — especially if Harrison Jr, decides to play — to help make up for that.
The Buckeyes were dominant defensively, allowing the second fewest points (132) in the country behind Michigan. But they’re facing a unique test in Missouri. They didn’t face many college football teams in the Big Ten Conference as explosive as the Tigers.
PICK
Missouri is having a special season, but are bettors in a rush to write off Ohio State? Perhaps. So long as Harrison Jr. plays, the Buckeyes are still incredibly skilled on the outside and should be able to make enough plays to expose the Tigers’ defense.
With that in mind, we’re going to fade Missouri and take the Buckeyes at +2.5. If bettors are looking for even better value, they can take Ohio State to win outright at +120.While we’re also leaning toward the Over of 48.5, that’s about as high as we’d go.
For college bowl projections, betting odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
