The Baylor Bears visit the No. 25 Kansas State Wildcats on Saturday in a game that could get ugly. Kansas State is better on both sides of the ball and needs a victory after last week’s 33-30 loss to the Texas Longhorns. The Bears are having a rough go of things and saw their bowl hopes take a massive hit last week in an overtime loss to Houston. Baylor would need to win out to finish 6-6 to become bowl-eligible, which isn’t likely to happen. The Baylor vs Kansas State matchup odds have the Wildcats favored by 20.5 points, and the total on the game is 55.5.
Day/Time: Saturday, November 11, 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, Kansas
Streaming: Big 12 Network/ESPN+
Line: Kansas State -20.5 | Total: 55.5
Baylor Offense Struggles at Times
The Bears will enter the game, scoring 21.8 points against teams that allow 24.7. Baylor doesn’t rush the ball well, gaining just 3.0 yards per carry and 95.1 yards per game. The Bears throw the ball pretty well, averaging 296.8 yards and 7.5 yards per attempt. But Baylor needs 18 yards to score a point, well above the 14.9 yards per point average of the defenses its played.
That’s the main reason why Baylor scores fewer points than their foes allow. The Bears average 25 more yards of total offense than their foes allow on average. But second-leading receiver Ketron Jr. missed last game with a head injury. He’s listed on the college football injuries report as questionable.
Baylor isn’t as bad as its numbers look defensively. The Bears are allowing 32.3 points per game, but their foes average 29.1. And Baylor’s 5.0 yards allowed per rush doesn’t look as bad when you see Baylor’s opponents average 4.7 yards per carry. The pass defense allows 8.3 yards per pass, but Baylor doesn’t see as many passes as a lot of defenses. But that’s because teams are running the ball more often at the Bears’ defense.
Baylor’s struggles on the scoreboard has also led to a dismal showing against the NCAA football betting lines. The Bears are 2-5-1 against the point spread and 4-4 in totals.
Kansas State Making the Plays
The Wildcats are 6-3, with all three losses close ones against teams currently ranked No. 15 or better this week. Kansas State is 6-2-1 against the point spread and 5-4 in totals. The Wildcats are scoring 36.6 points against teams, allowing 26.4 points per game. Kansas State owns a punishing rushing attack that gains 204.7 points and 5.1 yards per carry. But the Wildcats can move the ball through the air, gaining 248.4 yards per game and 7.7 yards per attempt.
But Kansas State is pretty strong defensively, allowing 17.8 points per game to teams averaging 26.9 points. The Wildcats are decent against the run, allowing 4.1 yards per carry to teams averaging 4.4 yards. But the pass defense is especially strong. The Wildcats allow 6.4 yards per attempt, which is below the 7.5 yards their opponents average. Teams complete 57.4% of their passes against Kansas State.
What to Expect
Baylor is going to have to throw the ball to have any success offensively. That’s something the Bears don’t do as often as they should. Despite a lackluster running NCAAF game, Baylor still runs 31.3 times per game and throws 39.6 times. Even though pass defense is Kansas State’s strong point defensively, the passing game is Baylor’s strength offensively. The passing game is the Bears’ best chance of doing anything to put points on the scoreboard.
Kansas State is going to run the ball and run it often. The Wildcats have had success against rushing defenses that are better than Baylor’s. They’ll make the Bears show they can stop the run, and it won’t be easy. Kansas State will still mix in some passes, but the rushing attack will be the key method of moving the football.
This is one of the college football matches today that could get ugly in the second half. Kansas State defeated Houston 41-0 two weeks ago and beat TCU 41-3 three weeks ago. So, the Wildcats are capable of winning big.
Who to Bet On?
The Baylor vs Kansas State matchup odds have Kansas State as solid favorites, and you can’t say it’s undeserved. The Wildcats covered the spread after their two earlier losses and should be able to cover the number here. The value is on Kansas State -20.5, so take the Wildcats for your side wager even though the rivalry game with Kansas is on tap.
The Baylor vs Kansas State matchup odds on the total is a tough call. Kansas State can put up the points. But they can also prevent them. There’s little in the way of value against a pretty solid over/under number.