The Wyoming Cowboys (6-3 / 3-2) head to Vegas to face the UNLV Rebels (7-2 / 4-1 ) in a Mountain West clash that UNLV needs to win if they have any hope of catching Air Force, a team they play next week on the road. The Rebels rebounded in a big way last week, beating New Mexico 56-14 after dropping a 31-24 decision at Fresno the week before. Wyoming is 3-1 ATS in their last four game but is just 202 SU in that span. Live NCAAF odds show UNLV a 5.5-point home favorite with a total of 51. The Rebels are 8-2 ATS in 2023, the Cowboys are 5-3-2. Let’s begin our Wyoming vs UNLV free pick preview by looking at both teams from a betting perspective.
(6-3 / 3-2) | (7-2 / 4-1)
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
Day/Time: Friday, 10:45 p.m. ET / 7:45 p.m. PT
Cowboys Need Some Bounces
In their win last week against Colorado State, the Wyoming Cowboys forced three turnovers, helping Craig Bohl’s team to win the time of possession battle. Like UNLV, Wyoming are at its best when running effectively. This season the Cowboys average 152.4 yards per game on the ground, good for 75th in the nation. Bohl knows that in order to attack the Rebels weakness, their secondary, you must have a quarterback that’s capable of picking apart a secondary.
Andrew Peasley is good enough to keep his team close, but has thrown over 30 passes just once this NCAAF season and that was in game one against Texas Tech when he completed just 52.9%. Over the last two seasons, Wyoming is 11-7-1 ATS with an 8-4 ATS record as a dog, but just 3-3 ATS as a road dog. In their last 12 meetings, the Cowboys are 7-5 ATS against UNLV. We continue our Wyoming vs UNLV free pick preview but turning our attention to the Rebels.
UNLV In A Let-Down Spot
We are one week removed from what could possibly be a match-up for all the marbles in the Mountain West when UNLV goes to Colorado Springs to take on Air Force. Head Coach Barry Odem knows that he needs to keep his team focused on Wyoming because a home loss would likely make next week’s clash meaningless. UNLV is winning because they’re controlling the ground game with just under 200 yards rushing per contest (199.1), good enough for 16th in College Football.
Quarterback and Las Vegas product Jayden Maiava continues to improve after taking over for Doug Brumfield after an injury. This is a team that can hurt you in various ways, something the program has not been able to boast about in over 20 years. UNLV has been getting it done against the number for the last three college football seasons, covering 20 of their last 30 games.
That success has come as an underdog but the Rebels are a modest 5-4 ATS as a favorite in that time, and 7-6 ATS at home. This is a team that will no longer sneak up on their opponents. We conclude our Wyoming vs UNLV free pick preview by looking at some betting trends followed by our official selection.
Injuries and Numbers To Take Into Account
When anyone learns how to bet on College Football, knowing the injuries for both NCAAF teams is as important as knowing the actual game plan. The good news for Wyoming is they didn’t list any significant injuries on this week’s report, while UNLV will be without QB Doug Brumfield who may have played his last down in Las Vegas.
Brumfield’s Dad is very involved on social media when it comes to his son and with Maiava owning the spotlight, the writing is on the wall for Brumfield who hasn’t quite lived up to the hype. The favorite in this series is 5-4 ATS since 2005, but just 2-4 ATS as a visitor. Long-term results show Wyoming 102-108-4 ATS since 2005, while UNLV is 102-110-4, you can’t get much closer than that.
The Number Is Trying To Send A Message
As we mentioned at the top, there is no way UNLV isn’t more focused on their trip to Colorado than they are against a team they feel like they should beat. The oddsmakers think UNLV will have all they can handle, after making UNLV a 5.5-point favorite. We set the number at 3.5 making the current number more appealing.
This comes down to turnovers for us. We think Wyoming has a better chance of winning the turnover battle because no matter how good Maiava has been, the interception bug has bitten him a few times.
Our NCAA Football free pick is to take the Cowboys with the 5.5-points, and be sure to check out our NCAAF expert picks.