California Golden Bears 2023 Future Odds: National Championship, Conference, Regular Season Wins and Player Props

2023 California stats shows them finishing the NCAAF season 6-5 ATS (+52 units). It was the second straight season Cal produced a profit for bettors (7-4 ATS, +265 units in 2021). Since 2017, the Golden Bears are 35-27 ATS (+583 units). Justin Wilcox is heading into his 7th season at the helm, after a 4-8 / 2-7 campaign, that resulted in seven losses in their last eight games.

Another season like that and Wilcox will find himself on the hot seat. Heading into 2023, the offense will be the focus after averaging just 23.9 points per game. Quarterback Sam Jackson V will lead the Bears after transferring from TCU. Soon today’s College Football scores will grace our phones, but until then let’s see if we can cash some future tickets involving the Bears.

At A Glance

Cal: 10-18 Mark Over Last Three Seasons Under Wilcox

In 2017, the future looked bright for the California Golden Bears after the hiring of head coach Justin Wilcox. His Bears finished 5-7 but beat North Carolina, Mississippi, and #8 Washington State. In addition, three of their losses were by three points or fewer.

In 2018, Wilcox pushed his team into a bowl game after wins against Washington State and USC. In 2019, California was ranked 15th in the country after a 4-0 start. The Bears appeared in two straight bowl games for the first time since 2009. All looked great, that is until the pandemic. Since the program’s progress has slowed to a 10-18 mark over the last three seasons.

There is some leeway, but many have suggested that there must be improvement or Wilcox could find himself out the door despite a contract extension through the 2027 season. The son of all-pro linebacker Dave Wilcox is 30-36 in six seasons at Cal. To help, Jake Spavital is coming in to take over the OC duties with new QB Sam Jackson V.

Spavital was the head coach at Texas State from 2019-2022 where he was 13-35 in four seasons. The 38-year-old was fired after the 2022 season. He’ll have plenty of work to do with an offense that averaged just 23.9 points per game last season.

Although Jackson was a 4-star, dual-threat recruit,, managed to play in just seven games over the last two seasons for TCU. Defensively the Bears finished sixth in scoring defense last year after a second-place finish in 2021. 2023 California stats must and likely will show a massive improvement.

National Championship Odds: No Chance

There’s no way the Cal Golden Bears will compete for a national championship so we’ll just filter in some betting numbers instead of straining our brains to figure out how they could cash a +40000 future ticket. At home the Bears were 4-2 (+170 units), It was the third straight season they produced a profit on their turf with an overall record of 8-4-1 (+350) after two losing seasons in 2018 and 2019.

As a home dog in that three-year span, Cal is a sparkling 4-1-1 (+274 units). Against Washington, Stanford, and USC, the Golden Bears are on a combined 6-0-1 ATS streak. California’s ATS stats do show some promise and could lead to another bowl invitation if they can be competitive in their six-road games. BTW, since 2017, Cal owns a respectable 35-27 ATS record with 583 units won. Only 18 teams have a better ATS return in that span.

Conference Odds: Ground Game Desperate to Improve

The Bears, bring in talented quarterback Jackson and NC State transfer Ben Finley, but unless Cal gets more than 97 yards per game on the ground, California’s 2023 stats will be anything but balanced. Yes, Jackson, who is lightning quick, will help the ground game but Cal will have to rely on Jayden Ott to improve off of a freshman season of 897 yards.

Competing for reps with Ott are Bryon Caldwell, an Oregon transfer, and Justin Williams-Thomas from Tennessee. It could shape up to be an embarrassment of offensive options for Spavital, but we have to see each in a new system before we declare their season win total of 5.

We do like the parts coming in so it’s safe to say that they will be better on offense than 96th in points scored (23.9). To date, it appears bettors find value in the Bears with conference odds dropping to +7500 after opening as high as +10000 in the Spring.

Regular Season Wins: Over 6, The Intelligent Wager

When betting on regular season win totals, the strength of the schedule is always a reliable way to start our handicap. Unlike professional sports, usually, teams are right around where they’re expected to be, so it’s a decent gauge. Heading into 2023, California owns the nation’s 12th hardest schedule, with opponents owning a 93-62 record in 2022 (.600).

Of their 12 games, only two are against NCAAF teams they beat in their previous meeting (North Texas, Stanford). They face two teams they’ve never faced before when the Auburn Tigers come to town in week two. Followed by the Idaho Vandals. Of the 10 recurring opponents, they covered just four times in their last meeting. So why is over six an intelligent wager? The answer is simple, we think Wilcox has done an incredible job restocking the shelves with talent and depth.

The wins should come at North Texas, a home upset against Auburn, followed by a tough win against the Vandals. Already at three. We’re going to count a week four visit to Washington as a signature win, after heading into the fourth quarter tied at 14 last season. Better OL play this season and the addition of a mobile quarterback should quiet down Husky pass rushers.

Then they get Arizona State at home in a revenge spot after blowing a fourth-quarter lead last year, followed by the gauntlet of Pac-12 teams (Oregon State, Utah, USC, Oregon). We don’t see a win there, but if they do get at least one.

They’ll have to find just one more between Washington State, Stanford (27-20 winner in 2022), and UCLA who they lost to last year by a touchdown after being with a point with eight minutes left in the fourth in 2022. Almost all of California’s 2023 stats should show improvement from 2022 which is why we’re betting over 6 (-130) wins, making it one of our College Football best bets.

For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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