MS State vs Arkansas Odds: Both Teams Struggling

The Mississippi State Bulldogs visit Arkansas on Saturday in a battle of struggling teams. The Bulldogs have dropped three of their last four and are on an 0-5 ATS run. The Razorbacks have dropped five straight games and are 2-5 on the season. Both teams have played tough schedules, so are likely a little better than their records indicate. The Sagarin NCAAF rankings have MS State as having played the 17th-toughest schedule in the country. Arkansas is No. 2, trailing only South Carolina. The MS State vs Arkansas odds have the Razorbacks favored by 7 points at home with a total of 50.5 points.

Bulldogs Battle Injuries Into Bye Week

Mississippi State is hoping the bye week will give some NCAAF injured players a chance to recuperate a bit. Quarterback Will Rogers was injured in the team’s last game against Western Michigan. MS State hasn’t said much about Rogers, except that he, along with running backs Jo’quavious Marks and Jeffrey Pittman and wide receiver Justin Robinson were being evaluated day-to-day. Marks is the team’s leading rusher. Bulldogs’ backup quarterback Mike Wright has played well and is the team’s second-leading rusher.

The Bulldogs will probably have more details later on in the week, although they’re probably not in any hurry to let Arkansas know their plans for the game. Mississippi State is averaging 30.2 points and allowing 290.5, which has helped the team post a 4-2 mark in totals against the college football betting lines. The Bulldogs run the ball well but are a little below average in the passing game.

The 29.5 points allowed by the Bulldogs don’t look that good. But their foes are averaging 28.9 points a game, so Mississippi State is pretty close to average. The team defends the run well, allowing 3.7 yards per carry. The Bulldogs haven’t been great against the pass, allowing 263.5 yards per game, which is basically what its foes average on the season. Mississippi State allows 74% passing, so needs to shore that up quickly.

Arkansas Dropping Down in Class

The Arkansas Razorbacks will be glad to see Mississippi State on the other side of the ball after a four-game stretch that saw LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and Alabama. Not that Mississippi State is a bad team. But the Bulldogs aren’t one of the college football powers the Razorbacks have been running into.

Arkansas is averaging 29.9 points against teams allowing 29.5 points. The Razorbacks are gaining just 3.0 yards per carry on the ground and are a little better than average passing the ball. But Arkansas has made the most of their yardage, scoring a point for every 10.8 yards of offense gained.

Arkansas is allowing 25.1 points per game to teams scoring 29.1, so the defense is doing its job. The Razorbacks are decent against the run and pretty average against the pass. Arkansas does make teams travel 14 yards to score a point on average.

What to Expect

Mississippi State won’t change things up too terribly much if Rogers is unable to go. Wright is a better runner, so there will be a few more designed running plays for the quarterback. Wright hasn’t thrown the ball often this season. But he’s seen significant action in the last two years, so he has some experience.

Arkansas likes to run the ball, even though they’re not particularly good at it. Still, the Razorbacks average 37.1 rushes and 27.1 passes per game. So you have to expect Arkansas to come out and run the ball, even though MS State’s pass defense hasn’t been anything special this season.

Based on the strength of the schedule and point differential, the NCAAF scores prediction would have Arkansas winning 30-24, which is fairly close to both the point spread and the total.

Who to Bet On?

The MS State vs Arkansas odds on the game reflect the difference in schedules between the two teams just a bit. Based on numbers alone, the Razorbacks would be about 6 points better than Mississippi State. After losing its last four as underdogs, the Razorbacks are now favored by 7, although there are really no trends one way or the other to come from that situation.

The MS State vs Arkansas odds on the total seems to be a bit low. Both NCAA teams are scoring close to 30 points a game and neither is really strong on defense. But the sportsbook knows what it’s doing here.

Arkansas looks to be slightly overpriced, but this could be a pretty favorable matchup for the Razorbacks. Arkansas -7 is the side to look at in this one.

For NCAAF betting news, college football spread, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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