Mississippi State Has Work Cut Out to Top Texas A&M For The Third Year in a Row
The Mississippi State matchup with Texas A&M is flying a bit under the radar, with the teams a combined 4-8 in the SEC this NCAAF season. The MS State vs Texas A&M Odds have the host Aggies as the heavy favorites.
Mississippi State has won the last two college football games against Texas A&M and five of the previous seven.
When looking at the college football betting lines, the Aggies are favored by 18.5 points, and that is the largest line since being listed as a 19-point favorite in the 2013 game in College Station.
Both the Aggies and Bulldogs have been eliminated in the SEC West Division race as a quick look at the NCAA conference standings shows that Texas A&M is in fourth place in the SEC West Division, with Mississippi State tied with Arkansas for last place in the division.
Running back Jo’Quavious Marks and quarterback Will Rogers are questionable for Mississippi State, as is receiver Freddie Roberson (8 catches, 102 yards).
For Texas A&M, defensive backs Tyreek Chappell and Deuce Harmon, receivers Raymond Cottrell and Evan Stewart (37 catches, 506 yards) as well as running back Le’Veon Moss (439 rushing yards, four touchdowns) are all questionable. Quarterback Max Johnson is expected to play while defensive lineman Enai White is out.
Texas A&M was priced at +5000 in the odds of winning the national title coming into the season, but those odds are off the board now.
Date/Time: Saturday, Nov. 11, 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Kyle Field, College Station, TX
TV & Live Stream: ESPN 2
Line: Texas A&M -18.5 | Total: 43
Bulldogs Stars Are Ailing
Mississippi State would have a hard time hanging with Texas A&M this season with a healthy roster, but the potential of playing another game without perhaps the team’s two best offensive players is increasing the degree of difficulty.
Quarterback Will Rogers has missed the last three games after he posted a season-high quarterback rating of 189.9 in a win over Western Michigan. Even before the injury, his days of leading the SEC in passing yards ended following the change in coaches after the death of Mike Leach.
Rogers has completed 61.4% of his passes for 1275 yards with 10 touchdowns and four interceptions. In the previous two seasons, Rogers threw for 3974 and 4739 yards with 35 touchdown passes in the 2022 and 2021 campaigns.
Marks has missed the last two games, and he has been held under 50 rushing yards in three of the last four games he did play in. Keep that in mind when looking at the MS vs Texas A&M odds.
The Bulldogs have covered in just one of their last eight games.
Aggies Flexing Their Muscles
Struggles on offense have led to Texas A&M failing to live up to the preseason expectations, but the defense has been outstanding.
In conference play, Texas A&M leads the SEC in allowing just 4.7 yards per offensive play to the opposing teams and is second only to Georgia in total defense. That could factor into the MS State vs Texas A&M Odds.
Texas A&M has gone from allowing 365 yards per game a season ago to 296.9 so far during the 2023 season.
It helps that the Aggies lead the SEC with 34 sacks and 81 tackles for loss. Junior linebacker Edgerrin Cooper leads the way with 16 tackles for loss and seven sacks.
When looking at the college football over and under trends, the total has gone over in five of the last seven games that Texas A&M played in November.
Mississippi State jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the first half and never trailed in handing Texas A&M the 42-24 in a 2022 matchup. The Bulldogs were four-point favorites in the game.
The contest went over the 45-point total on a Rogers touchdown pass with 7:03 to play.
Mississippi State was a seven-point underdog when the Bulldogs went into College Station in 2021 and returned home with the 26-22 win.
Mississippi State vs Texas A&M Betting Preview
Mississippi State has covered in two of the last three matchups versus Texas A&M when listed as a double-digit underdog. Defending the pass has been an issue for the Bulldogs as the 150.59 opposing passer rating is the worst mark in the SEC West Division. The total is 43, and it is just the fourth time in the last 12 games between the teams that the total was under 50 points.
Texas A&M has covered in three of the four games this season as a home favorite, while Mississippi State has failed to cover against the college football betting odds in two of the three games as the underdog on the road.
Mississippi State is 2-7 against the spread this season.
Mississippi State has lost its last five games outright as a double-digit underdog and has covered just once in those matchups.
The Aggies have won their last four games as a double-digit favorite but is 2-2 ATS in those games.
Mississippi State has covered in one of its last six matchups versus SEC teams.
This is a tough game to call due to the injuries to some key players for Mississippi State and the fact that Texas A&M is sixth in scoring offense in the SEC and seventh in total offense.