TCU vs Kansas State Odds: Horned Frogs Dogs For First Time This Season

After being favored for their first seven games this season, the TCU Horned Frogs will be underdogs when they visit Kansas State on Saturday. It’s been a dramatic drop for TCU. The Horned Frogs have gone from battling in the college football playoffs to fighting for a bowl berth.

Kansas State is coming off a key road win at Texas Tech and returns home, where it’s 3-0 straight-up and against the spread. The TCU vs Kansas State odds have the Wildcats as 6.5-point favorites, and the total on the game is 59 points.

TCU Good, Not Great This Season

TCU is 4-3 on the NCAAF season, having lost two games by three points each. That could be the difference between sitting at home over the holidays or playing in a bowl game. With their backs against the wall last week, backup quarterback Josh Hoover threw for 439 yards and four touchdowns against BYU in a 44-11 victory. Starting quarterback Chandler Morris is likely to miss this game.

The Horned Frogs have put up some solid numbers against an average NCAAF schedule, which Jeff Sagarin has rated No. 45 in the country. TCU is scoring 33.1 points per game against teams, allowing 27.3 points. The Horned Frogs are rushing the ball for 184.3 yards per game. The passing game is averaging 304.1 yards per game. But the team is still struggling to win.

You can’t blame the defense, as TCU allows teams to score 20.4 points per game, scoring 26.2. The Horned Frogs allow 3.4 yards per carry, although their opponents average just 3.5 yards per rush. TCU has defended the pass pretty well, allowing 54.7% completions and 228.9 yards per game.

Wildcats Using Ground Game to Win

Kansas State averages 36.2 points against teams that allow 27.5 points, and the rushing game is a big reason why. The Wildcats are rushing for 214.5 yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry on the season. The passing game complements the rushing attack by throwing for 241.7 yards per game. Kansas State runs 39.5 times per game and throws 32.7.

The Wildcats are far from being a one-dimensional team, but the running game, which is No. 9 in the NCAAF rankings, is the team’s bread-and-butter.

Kansas State is a decent defensive team, particularly against the run. The Wildcats allow 3.5 yards per carry and hold teams to 108.8 rushing yards. You can throw at Kansas State a little bit. Kansas State is allowing 265.5 passing yards per game, making pass defense the weak link of the team. The Wildcats have faced a few potent passing offenses, so their numbers may not be as bad as it looks at first glance.

The Wildcats are a different team at home, going 3-0 straight-up and against the college football betting lines this year. Over the last three years, Kansas State is 12-5 straight-up and ATS. The Wildcats have gone 4-2 in totals, but TCU is just 2-5.

What to Expect

The Horned Frogs have used a balanced offense all season and probably won’t stray from that too much. The Kansas State defense could dictate a few more passes than usual, but that’s about it. TCU runs the ball plenty and should do so here. But the Horned Frogs are 2-1 straight-up and 1-2 ATS when failing to rush for 150 yards or more. TCU has averaged 352 passing yards in those three games.

Kansas State is in much the same situation, as TCU’s rushing defense is also pretty solid. The Wildcats like to run the ball, and they’ll do so in this one, but aren’t afraid to throw. If the Horned Frogs can manage to bottle up the rushing attack a bit, KSU will go to the pass. The Wildcats have averaged 260 passing yards in the two games they failed to rush for at least 150 yards.

Who to Bet On?

The TCU vs Kansas State odds of Wildcats -6.5 could be a shade on the high side. But it’s hard to overlook how well KSU typically plays at home. TCU’s three losses have been by a total of 14 points, so the Horned Frogs aren’t a bad team and can stick around in this one.

The TCU vs Kansas State odds on the total might be the best way to go here. The number is on the high side, with the 59 being the highest total Kansas State has seen this season. The Horned Frogs have already had four games with higher totals this season but are just 1-3 in those games.

The total on this one opened at 56.5 and has been bet up to 59. The over is probably the way to go in this one.

For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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