Buffalo Favored For Second Straight Thursday Win
Thursday Night Football has been (mostly) a godforsaken night for football. But last week’s slate finally put together a watchable game. The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills played separate games that were decided by one score. New England came out on the wrong side and now hosts the Bills, who just did beat the Lions. The Bills vs Patriots betting odds favor Buffalo by 5 points with a total of 43.5. Can these archrivals extend the current run of watchable Thursday Night affairs?
Date, time (TV):
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Wounded Bills Must Continue Showing Mettle
Even though the Bills are on a two-game winning streak, they continue to struggle. Buffalo has not been the same powerhouse that demolished their opponents to the tune of an unstoppable offense and a merciless defense. Injuries are at the heart of their growing concerns beginning with quarterback Josh Allen.
Buffalo’s main man has a hurt elbow and it’s been affecting him. He’s tossed five picks versus four touchdowns with a completion rate of 61 percent in his last four games. That 75.9 passer rating is his worst stretch since 2019. Even if Allen can still make plays with his feet, the Bills’ offensive ceiling is limited.
“He and the team have been sloppy since his injury,” Jim Miller, a SiriusXM NFL radio analyst said about Buffalo as he covered their game versus the Lions. “He and the team have not practiced. The Bills played two games in five days. Both were wins but they were sloppy. But even with that, Josh Allen is the most talented player on the field even when injured.”
The defense also constitutes a big part of Buffalo’s NFL injury report. The team lost edge rusher Von Miller (knee). This is a big blow as the likes of linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (groin) and Gregory Rousseau (ankle) are injured. And that’s just at the front. On the secondary, 2022 first-round pick Kaiir Elam (ankle) is banged up.
Still, as the Bills vs Patriots betting odds have it, Buffalo is expected to win. After all, the Bills were the Super Bowl favorites heading to this season. Buffalo’s win over Detroit was only the second time they’ve won in a one-score game. This season, they’ve already dropped close decisions to Miami (two points) and Minnesota (three points in overtime).
Buffalo is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games and the total has gone under in their last five games. If there is a worthy bet to consider here, it would be for this game to be one of the lowest NFL scores this week.
Patriots Not Scaring Anyone Anymore
While the Bills can blame injuries for their chronically sloppy play, the Patriots can just blame themselves. New England may be 6-5 for the season but this team is as “mid” as they come. The Pats beat the teams they’re supposed to beat while losing to the legitimate contenders of the NFL.
New England has lost to Miami (8-3), Baltimore (7-4), and Minnesota (9-2) but has defeated Pittsburgh (3-7), Cleveland (4-7), and Indianapolis (4-6-1). On the spread, the Patriots are 4-1-1 ATS as chalk but only 2-3-0 as an underdog. The team’s defense, which is its bread and butter, tends to get exposed by any team with a decent quarterback.
Just look at the splits for the Patriots. In New England’s six wins, their defense held opponents to 17 points or fewer. The quarterbacks they faced? Jared Goff, two backups (Jacoby Brissett and Sam Ehlinger), and the two worst passers in the NFL: Zach Wilson (twice) and rookie Kenny Pickett.
Meanwhile, in New England’s losses, the defense gave up 20+ points – 27 or more four times to the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields, and Lamar Jackson.
Now, what group do Josh Allen and the Bills fall under? The Bills vs Patriots betting odds has already answered that question: the second one. Buffalo is 4-1 in its last five games against New England and that one win came via that infamous windy game.
But if you look at Buffalo’s last three wins, the Bills dropped 47, 33, and 38 against New England. With Allen and the Bills hurting, however, this may New England’s chance to snap this trend.Follow us on Twitter