Buffalo Remains Wide Favorites in Short Turnaround
Despite three consecutive subpar performances, the Buffalo Bills remain heavy favorites at 8.5 points per the Buccaneers vs Bills odds. They return to Orchard Park after an upset loss against New England. The Bills have lost on the spread in three consecutive weeks, and its once-unstoppable offense averaged just 19.7 points in this span. Still, a home game against Tampa Bay in a short week may be just what the team needs.
Location: Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, NY
Record: Buccaneers (3-3)/Bills (4-3)
Streaming: Amazon Prime
Public Still Backing Buffalo
Despite being 3-4-0 against the spread (ATS) this NFL season, the public has thrown their lot in with Buffalo against Tampa Bay. Can’t say we blame them, as the Buccaneers have not been that great either. They have lost both games after their Week 5 bye and scored a total of 19 points. On top of that, they can’t run the ball, which is Buffalo’s weakness on defense.
Outside picking a side, there is also greater emphasis on the total, which now sits at 42. It opened at 43.5, and roughly 90% of the money has gone towards the ‘under’, hence why the line dipped by 1.5 points. Six of Tampa Bay’s last seven games have gone under the total per the NFL score and odds, and the same is true for two of Buffalo’s last three.
Bucs Left Their Mojo in the Bye Week
A bye week can be advantageous as it allows teams to recover and sort out their season. But in the Buccaneers’ case, it may have killed this team’s momentum. Tampa Bay was 3-1 on both NFL point spreads and moneylines heading to Week 5. Its only loss was to the then-undefeated Eagles. Now, Tampa is struggling.
The Buccaneers are getting bodied on both sides of the ball. The offense has not only barely managed to score but has also been turnover-prone. The running game has been held to 3.3 yards per carry, and the defense gave up 781 yards in two games. In comparison, the Bucs gave up just 802 in its three wins.
And Tampa gets just a few days to travel and prepare for Buffalo. Still, this NFL team is 7-6 both ways as a road underdog since 2019, Todd Bowles’s first season as the team’s defensive coordinator. So we can’t entirely count it out despite the Buccaneers vs Bills Expert Picks.
Bills Don’t Have Much Time to Sulk
The short turnaround can have disadvantages. After all, how is Buffalo going to correct most of its flaws in just three days before another game? But it has also an advantage in that Buffalo will not have time to brood over its unflattering live NFL stats.
“This is a very long season,” defensive back Jordan Poyer said. “4-3, maybe not where we wanted to be at the beginning of the year, but we have a short week this week. The games are gonna keep coming, no reason to sulk in this one and turn one loss into two.”
Buffalo’s main issue has been its slow start offensively. The Bills managed just 10 total points in their last three first halves. They failed to score in all the first quarters. Josh Allen has not been given designed run plays, and the wide receivers, outside of Stefon Diggs, need to get more involved.
The Bills have also turned the ball over twice in each of their last three games, while the defense, missing a quartet of star players, gave up more yards in each of the past three games than the offense mustered. But since 2020, Buffalo is 11-3 following a loss and is 24-5 as a home favorite. So the sky is not falling entirely.
Fade Which Team Now?
Given the Buccaneers vs Bills odds, it may be easier to fade Buffalo on the spread here. Buffalo will have to go back to its dominant form, which blew teams out by two or more touchdowns. Against a solid Bucs defense, which is the best at stopping opponents in the red zone (22.2%), Buffalo may struggle again. However, that does not mean Tampa Bay can pull off what New England and Jacksonville did.