Chiefs vs Bills Free Pick: Buffalo is Hot But is KC Still Better?

Back the Chiefs Given The Current NFL Lines

The Buffalo Bills get another shot at the Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL Playoffs with one caveat: they now host them. Previously, the Chiefs beat the Bills twice in Arrowhead Stadium. Now, Buffalo could finally beat the Chiefs. They have not played in Orchard Park since 2020 when the pandemic was happening. Given the home-turf advantage, Buffalo is slightly favored. But we remain steadfast with our Chiefs vs Bills free pick: bet Kansas City.

Early Support is on Buffalo

Buffalo opened at -2.5 per the NFL point spreads. As of this Wednesday evening, most of the bets are on the Bills – around 60 to 65% in terms of action. The Bills and Chiefs are split 3-3 in their six meetings with quarterbacks Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. Buffalo has won the last three regular-season games but the Chiefs are 2-0 against them in the playoffs.

The total of 45.5 is also the lowest the bookies have set since these star quarterbacks faced each other. This may be an overreaction to their last NFL game, which had a 37-point total. Buffalo and Kansas City are typically explosive on offense. But it’s their defense that is getting things done. Still, nearly two-thirds of betting action is on the ‘over’.

Bills Face More Adversity Against Chiefs

The Bills have won six straight and appear to be peaking at the right time. But lost in all the “good times” are the growing NFL injuries on the team. Buffalo already has three key defenders injured. Now it adds another five. Linebackers Tyrel Dodson and Terrel Bernard got hurt against Pittsburgh along with three from the backend – cornerbacks Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford and safety Taylor Rapp. And this is just the defense.

On offense, the Bills could be without wide receiver Gabriel Davis. They handily beat Pittsburgh without him. But he was the hero against the Chiefs two seasons ago. His absence could surely impact our Chiefs vs Bills free pick.

Buffalo has overcome plenty of adversity throughout this season. It fell to 6-6 and fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey into the season. Star cornerback Tre’Davious White was lost for the season along with four other starters. The Bills have dug themselves out of tough spots. But at some point, these tribulations will catch up with them.

The Chiefs are Finding Ways to Score

Kansas City, on the other hand, has struggled with its offense throughout the season. This NFL team fell from having the top-ranked offense (29.2 points per game) in 2022 to 15th Chiefs vs Bills Free Pick (21.8) this season.

And against Miami, Kansas City’s issues with its passing game did not exactly get fixed. But the team still found a way to score 26 points and win in a rout.

The team rushed for 147 yards with Isiah Pacheco accounting for 89 of it. He also scored a touchdown. The Chiefs are 6-2 when they hit the 100-yard mark in rushing. And they are 4-2 when Pacheco (or Clyde Edwards-Helaire) finds the endzone. They need them now with the team’s issues at receiver.

Rashee Rice came up big for the Chiefs as he caught eight passes for 130 yards and a touchdown against Miami. But Mahomes’ passer rating is below 82 when he targets his receivers this season. He’s been one of the few dependable targets. And if he can keep it up, the Chiefs should advance deep into the NFL playoff picture as they have done previously.

Cold But Snow-Free in Buffalo

We can’t make our Bills vs Chiefs free pick without talking about the weather. So far, the forecast expects a clear albeit chilly (low of 16 degrees Fahrenheit) evening in Orchard Park. There is a lake-effect snow warning beginning this Wednesday until early Saturday.

But the clear forecast could contribute to a higher-scoring game as the public expects. Still, Buffalo and Kansas City played to a 20-17 score when it was clear in Kansas City earlier in the NFL schedule.

And the Pick is…

We hate to be “casual” here but we are not picking against Mahomes and the Chiefs in the playoffs. He is 5-0 in the Divisional Round and 8-5 as an underdog since he started in 2018. Meanwhile, the Bills are just 21-18-2 ATS as a home favorite since 2019. Buffalo is 4-4 straight-up when they are no wider than a three-point favorite (including being an underdog).

Most notably, the Chiefs have the second-best scoring defense while Buffalo’s is riddled with injuries. As an underdog, our Bills vs Chiefs free pick is on KC to win. Either bet them straight or tease them +6.5 points along with another of our NFL teaser picks during this NFL Divisional Round. Bet: Kansas City (+125).

For NFL betting news, NFL football scores, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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