Detroit Poised to Build on Thanksgiving Success Against Green Bay
Packers vs Lions Spread: Detroit Comfortable 8-Point Favorite
Sticking with tradition, the NFL’s Thanksgiving schedule will kick off Thursday (12:30 p.m. ET) with the Detroit Lions playing center stage to the Green Bay Packers. The Lions are 37-44-2 on Thanksgiving but 12-8-1 against the Packers. This is the first matchup between the division rivals on the holiday since 2013.
Detroit is an 8-point favorite (-105) and -365 on the moneyline, while Green Bay is +8 (-115) on the spread and +295 to win outright. The projected total is 47 (-110 Over, -110 Under).
Read on as we break down both NFL teams and assess the Packers vs Lions spread.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions 
Date/Time: Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET
Where: Ford Field; Detroit
Streaming: Fox
Betting Trends
The Green Bay Packers are 5-5 against the spread, including 2-3 away from home. Additionally, they’ve failed to cover their last five times when playing at Detroit. The total’s gone Under in five of Green Bay’s last six NFL games.
Conversely, the Detroit Lions are 7-3 ATS, including 3-2 at home. Their 70% cover rate is tied with four teams for the second highest in the NFL. The total has gone Over in five of the Lions’ last seven games.
That’s important to remember when assessing the Packers vs Lions spread.
Are the Lions for Real? You Bet.
The Detroit Lions are off to an 8-2 start, establishing themselves as one of the teams to beat in the NFC. Detroit is coming off a 31-26 victory over the Chicago Bears, in which it overcame a 12-point deficit over the final 4:15. David Montgomery, in his second game back from a rib injury, ran for the go-ahead touchdown with 29 seconds remaining. Although the Lions fell short of covering as 8-point favorites, they’re still 7-3 ATS. That includes a 4-2 mark against the NFC.
Oddsmakers are bullish on the Lions, raising their Super Bowl odds to +1200. They’re one of six teams at better than 18/1. They’re also +500 to win the NFC.
Detroit has already beaten Green Bay once this NFL season, 34-20 in Week 4 at Lambeau Field. Montgomery ran for 121 yards and three touchdowns in that win. Since then — especially when Montgomery was sidelined — the Lions have seen Jahmyr Gibbs become a bigger part of their offense. The rookie first-rounder out of Alabama has scored a touchdown in four straight games and is up to 512 yards rushing (5.2 per carry) on the season. His emergence has made the Lions’ second-ranked offense (399.6 yards per game) all the more dangerous. The Lions are the only NFL team besides the Miami Dolphins to rank top 5 in both passing and rushing.
The Lions have scored at least 20 points in seven of their last eight games with the exception of a 38-6 loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 7. Keep that in mind when analyzing the Packers vs Lions spread.
Inconsistency Continuing to Bog Down Green Bay
The Green Bay Packers pulled off an upset in Week 11, defeating the Los Angeles Chargers 23-20 as 3-point underdogs. The Packers covered the spread for just the second time in seven games and improved to 4-6 SU. Despite that, they continue to look up at the Lions in the NFC North standings.
This season, that’s not going to change. Jordan Love, once the deemed the heir apparent to Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, has been mediocre. In his first full season as a starter, Love is averaging just 6.9 yards per completion (tied for 21st in the NFL) and has been intercepted 10 times. Only Josh Allen and Sam Howell have thrown more picks (12).
As such, the Packers rank toward the bottom of the league in several offensive categories, including scoring. They’re averaging only 20.2 points. Sunday snapped a streak of seven straight games in which they failed to surpass 20 points. The Packers are also 21st in yards per game (319.6).
The Packers — projected for 7.5 wins — are currently +300 to make the playoffs. That seems like a tall order, especially if they can’t strike a better balance on offense behind Love. Four of their final seven games are on the road, where they’re just 1-4. Their only victory away from home came in Week 1 against the Chicago Bears, 38-20.
Handicapping the Game
The Lions are 37-43-2 when playing on Thanksgiving. That includes a 40-10 victory over Green Bay in 2013, one of the biggest point differentials in Thanksgiving history.
Unlike most of their recent history, the Lions are a contender for a change. They own a comfortable lead atop the NFC North and are one of four teams with 5/1 odds or better to win the conference. It’s only right that Dan Campbell has emerged as the favorite for NFL Coach of the Year.
Detroit already has one double-digit victory over Green Bay this season, and it’s likely to add to that total on Thursday. Look for the Lions to take care of business at home.
For more NFL odds and analysis on NFL matchups this week, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine
