Falcons vs Buccaneers Odds: Tampa Bay Slight Favorites
Atlanta on Five-Game ATS Losing Streak
The Atlanta Falcons visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday for an NFC South game with first place on the line. The Falcons are 3-3 on the season, while Tampa Bay is in first place with a 3-2 record. But neither team has played all that well for most of the season. The Falcons are becoming their worst enemy, while the Bucks have had some good luck. The Falcons vs Buccaneers odds show Tampa Bay is favored by 2.5 points (-115), and the total on the game is just 37.
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
Day/Time:
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Streaming: FOX
Moneyline: Tampa Bay -2.5 (-115)
Total: 37
Falcons Costing Backers Cash
The Atlanta Falcons dropped to 3-3 on the season after giving one away last week against Washington. Atlanta had a 402-193 total yardage advantage and a 36:23 to 23:37 time of possession edge. The Falcons also had three Desmond Ridder interceptions, which turned out to be the difference in the game. Turnovers have hurt the Falcons this year, with the team now at -6 for the season. But Atlanta has hurt those using them as one of their NFL picks against the spread. The Falcons are on a five-game ATS losing skid and 1-5 ATS on the season.
The Atlanta offense is nothing to get excited about. The Falcons average 16.5 points per game and don’t run or throw particularly well. Atlanta averages 119 rushing yards per game and throws for 212 yards. The Falcons can move the ball but aren’t capitalizing on it. The turnovers play a part in their scoring struggles, but Atlanta’s 20.1 yards per point rating is No. 30 in the NFL. Bijan Robinson has lived up to expectations after being drafted No. 8 by Atlanta. He’s currently third in the NFL Rookie of the Year odds. But he can’t do it alone.
The Falcons’ defense has been solid so far. Along with Atlanta’s offensive struggles, the defense has helped the Falcons go 1-5 in totals in the early going. The Falcons are allowing 20 points per game and 278.2 total yards. Once again, the turnovers have helped too many teams have short fields. So the Atlanta defense is a little better than it looks merely by points allowed. The Falcons allow 99 rushing yards and 179.2 passing yards per game.
Tampa Bay Passing Defense Suspect
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers don’t score much themselves, averaging 18 points per game. The Bucs can’t move the ball on the ground, averaging 3.0 yards per carry and 78.8 yards per game. Tampa Bay’s plan is not to make turnovers and capitalize on its opponents’ mistakes. So far, the Bucs have done a pretty good job of doing just that, sitting at +6 in the turnover department. Tampa Bay is averaging just 4.9 yards per play.
On defense, the Buccaneers are allowing 17.6 points per game. Tampa Bay’s rushing defense is solid, allowing 83.8 yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry. The pass defense has sometimes been a little spotty, allowing 247 yards per game. They’ve allowed 270 yards or more on three occasions and are 1-2 straight-up and against the spread in those games.
The NFL scores show Tampa Bay is 1-4 in totals on the season. Three of the team’s founders have landed under the total by at least eight points.
What to Expect
For the Falcons, it will be a question of how much they trust Ridder after his showing against Washington. Tampa Bay has shown that they’re not easy to run against. But you can throw against them. It’s a matter of how much the Falcons are going to throw.
The Bucs haven’t been pretty. But they have won more than they’ve lost, which could be good enough to win the NFC South. Tampa Bay will run some and use some short passes to try and move the ball. As long as Baker Mayfield doesn’t make any bad decisions, the Bucs like their chances.
Who to Bet On?
The Falcons vs Buccaneers odds are basically right where they should be. You can’t make Tampa Bay -3, which would bring out too many Atlanta Bets. And it’s hard to say that one team is really better than the other at this point of the season. The sportsbook has basically said this game is a toss-up, but let’s make Tampa Bay the favorites since they’re at home.
The Falcons vs Buccaneers odds on the total is definitely low. But you can’t make the number any higher given both teams and their inability to score at times. Both defenses are playing well, so 37 is a pretty solid number.
The Falcons may be a little bit underpriced here after losing to the Commanders in a game they had no business losing. The Falcons have dominated the stats the past two weeks, but have just a non-covering win over Houston and the loss to Washington. Atlanta +2.5 (-105) is the way to bet this game.
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