NFL Odds Week 7: Unders Have Another Huge Week
Totals Drop to 36-53-1 on the Season
It was another banner showing for unders in Week 6, moving totals to 36-53-1 for the 2023 NFL season. The NFL scores are making it more challenging to pull the trigger on an over, although there is one game this week that is an exception. But until offenses show a bit more life, betting against the NFL spread or taking the under appears to be the way to go. The NFL odds Week 7 show five games with totals of 40 or less. There are just two games that have totals higher than 45.
Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles 
Day/Time:
Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Penn.
Line: Philadelphia -2.5 (-120)
Total: 51.5
Streaming: NBC
When people were looking at the NFL season schedule during the summer, this is one of the games they were looking forward to. It’s hard to blame them, especially if they happen to be fans of offense. The game features the top two offensive teams in the league, with Miami No. 1 in total offense and the Eagles at No. 2. The Dolphins lead the league in scoring, while Philadelphia is No. 5. This is one of the Sunday night games the league got right, so let’s enjoy it.
Miami’s offense has been a juggernaut this season, scoring 37.2 points per game. There are two games on this week’s schedule, with totals of 37. That’s how good the Dolphins have been offensively. Miami is averaging 6.5 yards per rush and is throwing for 316.8 yards per game. The Dolphins are gaining 8.1 yards per play.
Miami’s defense allows 26 points per game to teams who score 19.7 points. The Dolphins are pretty average against the run and a little bit worse than average defending the pass. They should see a decent mixture of both from Philadelphia, which runs 33.5 times and throws 35.5 times per game.
The Eagles haven’t been great at running or throwing, but they’ve been good in both areas, keeping the defense off-balance and guessing. Philadelphia averages 25.8 points per game and allows 20.7, but have seen both games at home easily go over the total with 62 and 65 total points.
If you’re going to bet just one game over the total against the NFL odds Week 7, this should be it. The number is high, but this game should see enough scoring by both NFL teams to go over the total.
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings 
Day/Time:
Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minn.
Line: San Francisco -7 (-120)
Total: 44
Streaming: ABC/ESPN
The San Francisco 49ers visit the Minnesota Vikings in the Monday night game, where the 49ers are favored by 7 (-120) and the total has dropped slightly to 44. The 49ers are coming off a surprising loss to Cleveland, while the Vikings are off a win against Chicago.
The key for both teams this season has been turnovers. San Francisco is +8 in the turnover department and is 5-1. Minnesota is -7 in turnovers and is sitting at 2-4 on the season.
The 49ers allow a league-low 14.5 points per game. But people expected San Francisco’s defense to be pretty strong this year. Maybe not quite as good as it’s played, but the defense was expected to be a team strength. The biggest surprise for the 49ers is the offense, which is scoring 30.7 points per game. The defense has helped in that regard, getting some short fields for the offense to work with. But San Francisco is gaining 371.3 total yards per game. It’s definitely carrying its weight this season.
After catching a number of breaks in last year’s 13-4 season, the Vikings have fallen victim to the football gods this season. Minnesota has dropped several NFL games where it probably deserved a better fate. But that’s all part of the game.
The Vikings throw the ball 39 times per game and rush 19 times. That’s typically not a recipe for success in the NFL. Minnesota is gaining 4.0 yards per carry, which isn’t bad, but haven’t really stuck with the running game in any contest this season. The Vikings can throw the ball, gaining 263.7 yards per game. But to win in the NFL, you have to show a little more balance. Minnesota can’t continue to leave its defense on the field for 33:45 per game and not expect them to allow some points.
The trends in this one point to the under. This season, games with road favorites are 12-25-1 in totals and the NFL odds Week 7 have a number of road favorites. But this looks to be one of the better games to play under the total.
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