Most Rushing Yards 2022: Josh Jacobs Running Away With Title

Jacobs Leads 2022 NFL Rushing Yards But…

With five weeks left in the 2022 NFL season, the Las Vegas Raiders’ Josh Jacobs leads all players in rushing yards with 1,303. At this point, his NFL betting odds of -150 indicate that it’s better than an 80 percent chance that he finishes with the most rushing yards for 2022. Jacobs is 184 yards clear of Nick Chubb, who is in second place. However, Jacobs and the Raiders face a tough stretch as they face some of the stingiest running defenses.

Facing the NFL’s Best Defenses

Jacobs has been on fire recently having rushed 482 yards in his last three games. But that came against Denver (19th in rushing yards allowed per game), the Chargers (29th), and the Seahawks (31st). It will be like day and night when Jacobs and the Raiders face five of the top-11 best rushing defenses.

The Raiders play the Rams (fourth), Patriots (11th), Steelers (seventh), 49ers (1st), and Chiefs (sixth) to close out their season. On top of looking to improve their NFL current standings, the Raiders will need to keep the game close to make the best use of Jacobs. Falling behind will lead to them airing it out per a typical NFL game script.

But if Jacobs rushes for 427 yards, which is 86 percent of the 497 yards these NFL teams will allow on average in total, that puts him at 1,730 for the season. That means that Chubb will need to rush for 612 yards (122.4 a game) to overtake him. At +350, the 2022 most rushing yards odds are bearish on Chubb’s (or anyone else’s) chances.

Chubb’s Browns face a softer slate of opponents compared to Las Vegas. Pittsburgh, Baltimore (second), and Washington (eighth) are in the top 10 in rushing yards defense while New Orleans (20th) and Cincinnati (15th) are generous in this regard. If you combine what they allow on average, it amounts to 540. And we have to factor in Kareem Hunt siphoning some attempts out of Chubb.

The King is Not Dead – Derrick Henry’s Odds

In a distant third place at +550 is the two-time rushing yards king: Derrick Henry. The workhorse has not been as dominant thanks to a few football injuries. But he has one edge over Jacobs and Chubb – he runs the ball a whole lot more. With 258 carries through 12 games, Henry is rushing the ball like the old days.

Tennessee also has the easiest schedule of the three teams when it comes to rushing defenses. It faces Jacksonville twice, which allows 113.6 rushing yards per game (13th). But opponents like Dallas (24th), Houston (32nd), and the Chargers are all giving 450.5 rushing yards. Add Jacksonville’s and that is around 677 rushing yards for Henry to munch on.

Henry might just accumulate yards by way of volume. He has an outside shot of catching Jacobs

If we also factor in Jacksonville’s recent rushing defense, this team allows 133.1 yards in its last nine games. Henry has lacked that explosiveness and his longest carry is 56 yards, which is his lowest since he became the starter. His 4.2 yards per carry is also his worst. Still, when Tennessee faces these porous rushing defenses, Henry might just accumulate yards by way of volume. He has an outside shot of catching Jacobs on the NFL player stats.

Better Luck in 2023: Keep an Eye Out For…

Other players on the table such as Tony Pollard (+10000), Miles Sanders (+2500), and last year’s winner, Jonathan Taylor (OTB) are interesting bets to win next year’s rushing yards crown. The trio has next-to-no shot at finishing 2022 with the most rushing yards. But they can be serious threats next season. In fact, we expect them to be in the top five in betting odds.

Pollard has also broken out for Dallas and is averaging 5.8 yards per carry. After a slow start, Pollard’s rushed for 690 yards in his last eight games. The presence of Ezekiel Elliott will make it tougher for Pollard to win, especially when Dallas just paid “Zeke” recently. Sanders will continue to lead Philadelphia’s run-heavy offense (third in attempts) while Taylor will look to bounce back for the Colts.
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