NFL Week 16 Games Odds Preview: The Replacements

Backup Quarterbacks Could Alter the NFC Odds

Is that your quarterback? If fans only began to tune in this weekend, they may be confused with four of the six signal callers for the three games. From Brock Purdy to Baker Mayfield, replacement quarterbacks are leading anywhere from Super Bowl contenders to also-rans. As such, they will not only impact the NFL Week 16 games odds but also the playoff picture.

“Mr. Irrelevant” Has San Francisco Rolling

Brock Purdy was not the top choice. In fact, he was only the 262nd in the NFL Draft and the third on his team as far as quarterbacks. But here he is now, keeping San Francisco’s seven-game win streak alive. Not only is San Fran (-340) crushing the moneyline, but it’s also covered five straight games. Now, the 49ers look to dominate the Commanders on the NFL betting lines Week 16.

Washington (+275) finally faces a team not named the Giants. Taylor Heinecke, a backup-turned-starter for the third straight season, has been solid for Washington. However, he did commit costly turnovers in his last start. That will be a recipe for disaster against the Niners, an NFL team that forces the fourth-most turnovers (22).

San Francisco with 7.5 points is the largest of a favorite it’s been since facing the Saints, a team it shut out 13-0. The total (38 in this game) has also gone under in 66.7 percent of its games as a favorite (4-8-0). That has more to do with its league-leading defense – in both scoring and yardage. With all that, Purdy does not need to do much although that has not stopped him from already tossing six touchdowns.

Eagles Rematch Cowboys With Quarterback Roles Reversed

The last time Philadelphia and Dallas faced each other, it was Philadelphia beating Dallas with their backup, Cooper Rush. Now, the tables have been turned and it will be Dallas hosting Philadelphia with their backup, Gardner Minshew. Jalen Hurts (shoulder) is sitting on the NFL injury report even if the team is hopeful it’s a short-term one.

With that, Dallas has gained a few points (-4.5) on the NFL Week 16 games odds. This is a team that is reeling and just lost to the Jaguars as a four-point favorite and is 2-4 ATS in its last six games. Philadelphia has won five straight and covered in three of its last four. It will be an underdog for the first time. That’s a role Minshew is all too familiar with.

Minshew went 7-13 as a starter for Jacksonville. While his record is unflattering, he tossed 37 TDs to just 11 interceptions with a 93.1 passer rating. Not bad for a guy playing on a bum Jaguars team. He is playing for a significantly better team now and one that is just 2-5 ATS as a visitor. But with plenty of firepower on his and Dallas’s side, expect the total (47) to trend upwards.

Low’s Angeles and Boring-Cos

A total that will not be trending up is this one between Denver (-1) and Los Angeles. Brett Rypien may continue leading the Broncos with Russell Wilson (concussion) listed as questionable. So far Rypien has allowed Denver to actually have “high-scoring” games. Denver’s last two games actually went over the total. Their game against Kansas City was the first time Denver went over the total since Week 4 against Las Vegas.

For over bettors’ sakes, Rypien should stay in the game. However, Denver’s defense may also force this one to be a struggle. The Broncos have allowed opponents to hit the 20-point mark just four times this NFL season. This defense gives up just 19.2 points on the road. And they have a perfect dance partner in the Rams with Baker Mayfield.

Nine of the Rams’ 14 games have gone under the total. Six of Mayfield’s last nine starts have also trended in this direction. The former first-overall pick, now on his third team in five months, will likely struggle along with the Rams’ battered team. With a total of 36.5 points, expect this football matchup to be one of the lowest-scoring NFL Week 16 games.
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