Patriots-Broncos Odds Preview: Get Drunk on Eggnog To Bet This Game
This Matchup is a Lump of Coal For Christmas Eve
Broncos Laying a Touchdown Against the Patriots
The New England Patriots and Denver Broncos are your featured teams for Christmas Eve this Sunday evening. We know. This is an ugly matchup and one that could get worse with a forecast of snow in Denver. It’s tough to bet this online, with Denver favored by seven points, and a total is set at a low 34 points. These Patriots-Broncos odds are something Scrooge would come up with.
Patriots vs Broncos 
Records: New England Patriots (3-11), Denver Broncos (7-7)
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Day/Time:
Streaming: NFL+
Snow on Christmas Eve? Bet the Under
Let’s tackle the first thing here: snow in Denver. Early weather reports indicate a mix of “rain and now” for Denver. This is a chaotic combo, as it could make things slippery. We already have an offensively challenged team in New England and a Broncos team that was held to 17 points in two of their last three games. So, is it too early to bet ‘under’ on the total?
Light rain tends to have minimal effects on how the totals play out, in general. But if it starts to snow, it could make visibility a bit worse. As such, you can have more conservating play-calling: more run plays and “dink and dunk” approaches from either team.
Conversely, it could also be shrewd to wait on the NFL odds until we have a more precise forecast. Most of the public, nearly 90%, are betting on the ‘under’ here. More could bet on it closer to the game. It’s possible the total even goes below 34 to 33.5 or 33.
New England and Denver should be used to playing under wintery conditions. And while nine of New England’s 14 games have gone under the total, 10 have had 34 points or more. And Denver’s defense has been spotty all season.
The Broncos have given up 20+ points in four of their last six games. The two exceptions were games where their opponent’s starting quarterbacks got injured mid-game.
As such, these Patriots-Broncos odds may have a total set too low. At the same time, everyone is betting on it to go even lower. The best way to approach this is to fade the public and betting trends. Go over.
Only the Grinch Would Let Anyone Bet on the Broncos
The Patriots stink. But laying seven points on the Broncos is akin to swallowing some rotten eggnog. Don’t do it. Denver is 2-4-0 against the spread (ATS) as a home favorite. And given the wintery conditions and the matchup, the Broncos may labor to put away the Patriots. If they even do it.
Denver could be forced to throw the ball thanks to the Patriots’ tough running defense. New England gives up the second-fewest rushing yards (84.9) per game and the lowest yards per carry (3.1). It held all but four opponents to under 100 rushing yards. And Denver has struggled to throw recently.
The Broncos are ranked below average in most passing metrics. Russell Wilson has completed just 59.2% of his attempts for five TDs and four interceptions in his last four games. This is a steep decline from his overall 2023 NFL players stats. And to exacerbate matters, head coach Sean Payton was seen losing it on him against Detroit.
“Mistakes happen, and people get emotional — especially when, in the fourth quarter of a game, you’re getting your ass kicked,” Broncos right tackle Mike McGlinchey said. “So, I wouldn’t think anything of that. And nobody in this locker room does.”
With pressure mounting for Denver, this game against New England could be all-or-nothing. NFL playoff predictions are still leaning on Denver not to make it. Lined as a -350 favorite against a team with nothing to lose, our money is not on Denver.
Given the Patriots-Broncos odds, we’d rather bet Bill Belichick to stick it to Wilson one final time. It can be his parting Christmas gift.
For NFL betting news, NFL standings, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
