The New England Patriots (2-5) visit the Miami Dolphins for a Sunday afternoon game in Miami. New England is coming off an upset win against the Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins were beaten pretty well by the Philadelphia Eagles in the Sunday night game. The sportsbook is expecting Miami to correct course in this game.
The Patriots vs Dolphins betting odds have Miami -9.5 (Even) at home, and the total on the contest is 46 points.
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Line: Miami -9.5 (Even)
Patriots Off Surprising Win Against Bills
Victories have not come easy for the New England Patriots this season. After knocking off the Bills as 7.5-point home underdogs last week, New England is still just 2-5. The Patriots aren’t any better against the NFL betting lines, going 2-5 ATS. The Patriots have covered the spread both times they’ve won. But that’s been it. New England is in last place in the AFC East NFL standings.
The Patriots are averaging just 14.4 points per game against teams, allowing 20.2 points per game. New England can’t run the ball at all, although its passing game is about average. The Patriots are tied for No. 24 in yards per play and are No. 30 in offensive yards per point. Being a -7 in turnovers hasn’t helped New England.
The defense has been average in the stats department. But the ineptitude of the offense is making it harder for the Patriots. New England allows 25.3 points per game to teams scoring 24.1 points. But the Patriots are No. 6 in defensive yards per play, so the defense holds its own. But it’s simply left with too many short fields and on the field too long.
Dolphins Thumped by Philadelphia
Miami’s game against Philadelphia received plenty of pregame hype. But it turns out it wasn’t warranted, as Philadelphia took it to the Dolphins. The Eagles held Miami to just 244 total yards. It was the first time the Dolphins have been held to under 300 yards or 20 points all season.
Miami is averaging 34.3 points per game against teams allowing 25, although the Dolphins’ scoring is a little skewed by the 70 points scored against Denver. The Dolphins are rushing for 162.3 yards per game and 6.3 yards per carry. The passing game has been solid, with Miami averaging 300 yards per game and 9.1 yards per pass. This puts the Dolphins No. 1 among NFL stat leaders in yards per pass.
Defensively, Miami isn’t anything to get excited about. The Dolphins are allowing 26.7 points to teams scoring 20.7 points. Miami is decent against the run, allowing 3.9 yards per carry. But the pass defense is a little subpar. The Dolphins are allowing 70% completions and 6.8 yards per pass attempt to teams gaining 6.3 yards per pass.
What to Expect
The Patriots are going to have to throw the ball. New England passed for 200 yards when the teams met in Week 2, which Miami won 24-17 as 2.5-point road favorites. The Patriots rushed for 88 yards, while the Dolphins rushed for 145 yards and threw for 244, their second-lowest total of the season.
The Patriots don’t run the ball well enough to try and rush the football 40 times. They’ll need to make some big plays through the air if they want to keep the game close. After their first win of the season, the Pats lost to Dallas 38-3.
Likewise, the Dolphins bounced back in style after their first loss of the season, defeating the New York Giants 31-16 as 12.5-point favorites. The Dolphins are 3-0 against the spread at home this season, so a return to Miami is a good thing.
Who to Bet On?
The Patriots vs Dolphins betting odds of Miami -9.5 might be a shade low. The Dolphins have been extremely tough at home this year and are 13-7 ATS over the past three years. The Dolphins have scored at least 31 points in each of their three home games this season.
The Patriots vs Dolphins betting odds of 46 on the total is a pretty solid number. It’s roughly the same total as there was in Week 2, and that one landed under the total of 46.5. But the Dolphins are a different team at home and are averaging 47.7 points in their three home games. The over 46 is the way to play this one.