UFC Fight Night Prop Betting Tips: Chasing Finishes

Another Saturday means another UFC event filled with spectacular finishes. That’s what the promotion and the fans are hoping for. The online sportsbook’s prop market supports the notion as nine of the 14 fights have props that favor the fight to end in a finish. But as far as UFC Fight Night prop betting tips are concerned, chasing finishes is not always the most lucrative tactic. It is, however, the most fun.

UFC Banking on Another Finish-Filled Event

The UFC’s matchmakers have paired fighters to maximize the potential for a finish – or at least an exciting back-and-forth brawl. “Just Bleed!” is what fans want.

Of the nine fights, the most likely to finish is a bout between Joe Pyfer and Alen Amedovski. The UFC props have a finish line at 5-1 (-500) or an 83.3 percent implied probability. Pyfer is also the event’s biggest favorite (-450) so the promotion is expecting him to destroy Amedovski.

The co-main event between Chidi Njokuani and Gregory Rodrigues shouldn’t reach the scorecards either. The middleweights are hard-hitters and have combined for four knockouts in their five combined UFC victories.  Heavyweights Tanner Boser and Rodrigo Nascimento should also produce a knockout or submission. Both fights are lined at 5-2 (-250) for a finish.

These three fights are just the tip of the iceberg as far as the matchups with potentially combustible results. But things don’t always go as planned and sometimes fights between two heavy-handed strikers can lead to a fight with a low output. Fading the odds is not a crazy UFC Fight Night prop betting tip.

Sandhagen and Song Could be Chaos

For the main event, the betting lines lean slightly on the outcome being a decision (-150), ut it isn’t by much. Cory Sandhagen and Song Yadong have a combined finishing rate of 67 percent in their victories. Even if they have different styles, the two go for the finish. Sandhagen has finishes via a flying knee and a spinning wheel kick while Song has knockouts using his elbows and fists.

The American, Sandhagen, is favored in this five-round fight. He’s had a tougher UFC schedule and Song has not fought five rounds in the UFC. Song may fade down the stretch. However, three of his five finishes have come in the first round. Of the two fighters, he hits hard blow-for-blow but he’s also shorter and more of a stationary boxer.

Sandhagen is dynamic and fluid, he will move around and attack Song from many angles. He can dispatch Song by hitting him with a strike Song won’t see it coming. Alternatively, Sandhagen can drag Song into the championship rounds and test his endurance. Should he start to fade, Sandhagen will pursue a finish.

Women’s Fights Could be Toss-Ups

As far as women’s MMA goes, they are usually tough to predict. The three fights this Saturday are relatively lined closely with two of the three expected to go to a decision. Stay Alert: It won’t be surprising to see the underdog lines cash, which is why playing them could be the sharp UFC Fight Night prop betting tip.

UFC Flyweight fighters Mariya Agapova and Gillian Robertson kick it off for the women. At -225, this fight has a 69.2 percent chance of finishing. All six of Agapova’s fights led to a finish while Robertson has the UFC women’s flyweight record for most finishes (six); however, four of her last five fights went to a decision.

Loma Lookboonmee and Denis Gomes are expected to fight to a decision (-250). The favorite, Lookboonmee has not finished any of her fights in the promotion. But in what could turn out to be a slugfest, a TKO is not a crazy outcome. The same can be said in the fight between Sara McMann and Aspen Ladd. The two have gone to decisions in their recent matches but their resumes are littered with finishes.