Nicolau To Seize the Occasion vs Perez
Nicolau vs Perez Betting Lines
The UFC Fight Night main event features Matheus Nicolau vs Alex Perez at UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Nicolau vs Perez betting lines have Nicolau at -190 to get back into flyweight title contender following a loss to Brandon Royval.
For Perez, it’s a chance to end a three-fight losing streak, and desperate fighters often make for good matchups.
Two Year Wait for Nicolau
31-year-old Nicolau hasn’t won in the UFC since 2022, when knocking out Matthew Schnell, but he has fought only once since.
Like many UFC fighters, he has suffered plenty of canceled fights between then and now. However, he could get back to his best on Saturday against Perez.
His most recent fight came in 2023 when lasting just over two minutes against a rampaging Royval, who landed 13 significant strikes in the opening two minutes compared to just two from Nicolau.
He was thoroughly beaten, but the Brazilian is a top-five UFC flyweight, and if he defeats Perez convincingly, a title shot could be on the cards later this year.
Alexandre Pantoja is among the list of UFC current champions, and if Nicolau shows some improvement, he can be on that level.
Nicolau vs Perez betting lines are giving him plenty of respect at -190. They expect him to bounce back to his best, and although Perez is 24-8, the class edge is with the favorite.
The five-round fight plays into his strengths, and we expect money to come for him throughout the week. He has the better record, and younger fighters have a much better record, despite being only one year younger than Perez.
Perez Could Let Out His Frustrations
We talked about how many cancelled fights Nicolau has had, but Perez is in a similar boat.
The 32-year-old American hasn’t won in the UFC since 2020, and four years is a long time to wait.
Since then, he has lost to Deiveson Figueiredo, Pantoja, and Muhammad Mokaev. These are three tough fighters, but he’s had a plethora of cancelled and rescheduled fights, which adds to his frustrations.
It will either work for or against him, and as Nicolau vs Perez betting lines suggest, it could work against him in Las Vegas.
Perez has had the benefit of fighting in 2024. It wasn’t a bad performance against 12-0 Mokaev, who landed 47 significant strikes to Perez’ 30. However, Perez was taken down three times on 20 attempts.
He did well to avoid most of the takedown attempts, but he wasn’t able to let his hands go. He should get a chance to throw against Nicolau, so the UFC betting odds of +160 could be worth entertaining.
“It’s a good fight,” Perez said. “We want to keep it on the feet; he’s not big on taking people down and doing jiujitsu, so I like that. I like to punch people in the face, so that’s always a good thing.
“Two of the best guys in the division, so people can expect a good fight and 25-minute war.”
Despite his UFC schedule being all over the place, Perez now needs to settle down and become relevant in the flyweight division. He’s a top 10 fighter, but he’s on the outside looking in.
Nicolau with Points Victory
We expect the main event to go the distance, and if it does, Nicolau is likely to get the decision.
Alex Perez will be shooting for a knockout, but if that doesn’t come, Nicolau should be good enough to win rounds and come out ahead on the judges’ scorecards.
We’re happy with the -190 price for Nicolau to win, and coupled with over 4.5 rounds at +110, it makes for a nice payday.
Class is with Nicolau, and he only needs to weather the early Perez storm to survive and improve his record to 20-4-1.
For UFC betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
