Volkanovski vs Topuria Expert Pick: Bet Against This UFC 298 Hype Train
The Champ Can Be Had For Such a Good Line
Hype Machine is Tightening the UFC 298 Odds
UFC 298 comes hot with serious hype on the challenger, Ilia Topuria, to dethrone Alexander Volkanovski. Most action has come in for the slight underdog. But we are not buying it and our Volkanovski vs Topuria expert pick stays with “The Great”. This is just a question of when to play his line as there is action on both ends though anything below -130 is a can’t-miss line.
UFC 298
Day/Time:
Matchup: Alexander Volkanovski (26-3-0) vs Ilia Topuria (14-0-0)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Streaming: Pay-per-view
Action is Back and Forth But Mainly on Volkanovski
The early Volkanovski vs Topuria betting lines were set at -175 for the champion and +130 for the challenger. Topuria backers have missed the boat on that line as he is now down to even odds (+100). But Volkanovski bettors can watch the line movement like a hawk as he went to as high as -115 but is now down to -130.
As for the total, it is set at 3.5 rounds with the ‘over’ juiced at -130. Folks quickly bet the ‘over’ and it went down to -155. But that pushed others to bet the ‘under’ at odds of +105 where it now sits at even odds (+100), which are eerily identical to the moneyline odds.
Volkanovski is Great Until Further Notice
Call it “fatigue” or recency bias. But we are not seeing it in Volkanovski, who is undefeated at 145 pounds. His only two losses have come against the 155-pound champion, Islam Makhachev with one being on super short notice. His unflattering UFC results have led to many assuming he is on the downswing of his career.
Some have gone as far as to compare this Volkanovski-Topuria fight to the Jose Aldo-Conor McGregor rivalry nearly nine years ago. Bettors steamed McGregor’s line, the hotshot challenger, to a favorite against Jose Aldo and he knocked him out in record time.
But that matchup favored McGregor who slowly whittled away at Aldo partially thanks to the UFC’s support. Volkanovski is unmoved by any trash talk from Topuria.
Any rumors of him being depressed or unmotivated may not be applicable here. On top of that, Volkanovski has fought significantly better competition and has an undeniable wrestling edge. Volkanovski is still a solid UFC bet.
Don’t Go Broke on Topuria
Fans would love to see Topuria do to Volkanovski what McGregor did to Aldo. We’ll give him props for going for broke here as he even produced an autobiographical film while declaring himself the UFC champion.
He has millions of followers on social media and is uber-popular in Spanish-speaking circles. But don’t conflate hype with abilities.
Topuria is no bum and he is undefeated for a reason. He packs powerful boxing with top-tier jiu-jitsu. The way he beat Josh Emmett, a prolific wrestle-boxer, has many bettors in awe. But this next UFC fight is a big step up in competition for him. Other than Emmett, Topuria has fought fighters who are not top-15 or have exploitable flaws.
Volkanovski is as complete of a UFC fighter as Topuria is going to fight. And this is a five-round title fight with Topuria putting the pressure on himself thanks to his relentless self-marketing.
He also has to address Volk’s wrestling, a reach disadvantage, and questions about his cardiovascular endurance. He’ll need to ace all these to become the UFC’s next big superstar.
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