Premier League 2023/24 Outright Odds: Man City in Pole Position Once Again
Plus an Overview of Top 4, Top 6 and Relegation
Man City in Pole Position Once Again
Arsenal put up a fight for most of the season, but Manchester City were too much for the Gunners in the end. City won their third consecutive Premier League title in 2022/23. They pulled off a rare treble of the EPL, FA Cup, and Champions League. Pep Guardiola’s side will be right in the mix again next season, not only in domestic competitions but also in European tournaments. But can anyone challenge them? We’ll look at the latest Premier League 2023/24 outright odds, along with odds for the top four, top six, and relegation.
To Win the Premier League 2023/24
To the surprise of absolutely nobody, Manchester City are once again favorites to take home the Premier League title. En route to finishing first in the 2021/22 EPL standings, Erling Haaland broke the record for most goals in a Premier League season. The dynamic duo of Haaland and Kevin de Bruyne will be back in business next season, but De Bruyne is recovering from an injury during the Summer. City are currently -160 favorites to win a fourth straight EPL title.
Arsenal led the Premier League for 248 days during the 2022/23 season but couldn’t pull off the title. They’re linked to players like Declan Rice and Kai Havertz in the transfer window and could be the biggest challengers to City again. They show +700 odds of winning the EPL.
Liverpool were the last team before City to win the Premier League but finished in fifth last season. Jurgen Klopp already sealed World Cup star Alexis MacAllister’s signature, and the Reds display +800 odds to win the EPL. Manchester United finished in third in 2022/23 and also sit at +800 odds. They’ll need to splurge a center forward to challenge for the title.
Some dark horse contenders for the title include Chelsea and Newcastle. Without European competition to contend with, Chelsea can focus fully on the EPL and have already signed Christopher Nkunku from Leipzig. They’re priced at +1200 odds to win the league. Eddie Howe’s Newcastle outperformed expectations and finished fourth in 2022/23, but it may be difficult for them to juggle the UCL and EPL. The Magpies stand at +1400 EPL odds.
Tottenham and Brighton are the only teams that come in at better than +10000 odds. Spurs, who hired Ange Postecoglou as their new head coach, are +4000 longshots to win the EPL. Meanwhile, Roberto de Zerbi’s Brighton show +5000 odds.
To Finish in the Top Four
There’s one team that’s an overwhelming favorite to finish in the top four, and it’s Manchester City. The Cityzens have finished in the top four every season since 2010-11 and are priced at -1200 odds to extend their streak.
Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United are expected to round out the top four. The Gunners come in at -165 top four odds, while Liverpool and United sit at -150 and -140, respectively. Despite finishing 12th in 2021/22, Chelsea are expected to bounce back this season. Todd Boehly has not been shy about spending money, and the Blues stand at +110 odds to make the top four.
Newcastle haven’t put together back-to-back seasons in the top four for twenty years but sit at +120 top-four odds in 2023/24. Tottenham are just one season removed from a top-four finish, but they’re in flux. Still, they have a 25 percent implied chance to make the top four at +300 odds. Last season, Brighton qualified for the Europa League for the first time in their history and sit at +400 odds to make the top four for the first time. They’re set to lose Alexis MacAllister and Moises Caicedo this Summer, though.
Aston Villa and West Ham are dark horse contenders for the top four. The Premier League 2023/24 outright odds price the duo at +1000 and +2000 to make the top four, respectively. Five other teams sit at +5000 odds or better to make the top four. Brentford, who will be without Ivan Toney until January, come in at +4000 odds. Crystal Palace, Everton, Wolverhampton and Fulham sit at +5000 top-four odds.
To Finish in the Top Six
Man City are nearly a lock to finish in the top six, at -10000 odds. Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea and Newcastle all come in at -200 odds or shorter. The Gunners show -450 odds to make the top six, while United and Liverpool both display -350 odds. Manchester United have only finished outside of the top six once in the Premier League era.
The oddsmakers tip Chelsea and Newcastle to round at the top six, at -225 and -200 odds, respectively. The EPL schedule usually produces some shockers, which means the top six could look a lot different than predicted. Brighton made the top six in 2022/23, which nearly no one expected.
Tottenham are priced at even odds to make the top six, while Brighton sit at +160 odds to repeat their feat. Aston Villa, who came in seventh last season, stand at +300 odds to better their position.
West Ham will play in the Europa League this season after winning the Conference League final. They show +600 odds to qualify for the Champions League or Europa League through the EPL this time around.
Brentford finished just three points outside of the top six in 2022/23 and sit at dark horse +1200 odds. Crystal Palace, Everton and Wolves are all at +1600 top four odds, but none currently have a prolific striker. Fulham were 10 points off the top six last season and they and Nottingham Forest display +2000 top six odds this time around.
To Be Relegated
Usually, the top candidates for relegation are newly promoted sides. However, all three newly promoted teams survived the drop in 2022/23 for the first time since the 2011/12 season. Fulham, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest are all back in the league this season, while Leicester City, Leeds United and Southampton went down to the Championship.
This time, the new Premier League boys are Luton Town, Sheffield United and Burnley. The Premier League 2023/24 outright odds give both Luton and SUFC greater than a 50 percent implied chance of going straight back down. Luton are -275 favorites to be relegated, while Sheffield United come in at -175 odds to go down.
Burnley are third on the list, but at longer +160 odds. Bournemouth just fired manager Gary O’Neill and replaced him with Andoni Iraola. The Cherries show +175 odds to finish in the bottom three and were relegation favorites in 2021/22. Still, they managed to finish in 15th.
Nottingham Forest and Everton came dangerously close to relegation last season. Now, they sit at +275 and +300 relegation odds, respectively. Fulham, Wolves, Crystal Palace and Brentford round out the ten most likely teams to be relegated. Fulham managed a top half finish last season but have +330 odds to face the drop this season.
Meanwhile, Wolves just lost key midfielder Ruben Neves to Saudi Arabian side Al Hilal. They now come in at +500 relegation odds. It’s unclear whether Crystal Palace will keep Roy Hodgson as their manager but they stand at +800 odds to go down to the Championship, regardless. Without Ivan Toney for half the season, Brentford could struggle and display +900 odds to be relegated.
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