UEL Quarter-Final: Benfica vs Marseille Odds
Both Sides Looking to Bounce Back
Marseille on Four Game Losing Streak
While last week was brutal for Benfica, they certainly haven’t suffered as much as Marseille has in the last few weeks. Benfica lost the Taca de Portugal Semifinal to Sporting, 4-3 on aggregate last Tuesday, then lost to Sporting 2-1 in the Primeira Liga over the weekend to lose ground in the title race. Still, Benfica’s opponents in the Europa League Quarter-Final, Marseille, have lost four games in a row. OM are at serious risk of missing out on European competition next season entirely. As Marseille tries to qualify for the Champions League through the Europa League route, we’ll check out Thursday’s Benfica vs Marseille odds.
Benfica vs Marseille
Location: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Lisbon, Portugal
Day/Time:
Benfica vs Marseille H2H
This is the first opportunity to bet on the Benfica vs Marseille odds for well over a decade. Benfica and Marseille haven’t played any Europa League fixtures against one another since the 2009-10 Round of 16. There, the sides drew 1-1 in Lisbon and Benfica managed a 2-1 win in France to advance. The only other time these teams have met, in the 1989-90 European Cup Semifinal, Benfica advanced on away goals after a loss and win.
Benfica Tough to Defeat at Home
Benfica won a competitive match in Scotland for the first time since 1960 when they defeated Rangers 1-0 in the second leg of the Europa League Round of 16. Entering the night, the two sides were on level terms, at 2-2, but Rafa Silva’s goal made all of the difference. Angel Di Maria provided the assist for Silva and the Argentine has registered four goal contributions in four UEL games.
Since that win, Benfica eked out 1-0 victories over Casa Pia and Chaves in the Primeira Liga. However, last week’s results vs. Sporting were a bit demoralizing. Benfica failed to win both Lisbon Derbies, the first of which knocked them out of the Taca de Portugal. Then, with Saturday’s 2-1 loss, they went four points behind league leaders Sporting. Benfica can still add European silverware to their trophy case this season but the odds are not exactly in their favor. Benfica currently shows +1600 odds to become Europa League winners but haven’t won a European trophy since 1962.
While the last week has been difficult, Benfica still hasn’t lost a 90-minute home match since early November. Benfica started off the season in the Champions League but finished third in their group behind Real Sociedad and Inter Milan. They managed to defeat Toulouse 2-1 over two legs in the UEL Play-off and beat Rangers 3-2 in the Round of 16. Benfica are unbeaten in their last three European home games.
New Manager Bounce Wears Off for Marseille
Marseille succumbed to a fourth straight defeat when they lost 3-1 to Lille in Ligue 1 last Friday. OM’s defending was horrific and Lille had way too much space to create chances. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scored a fortuitous consolation goal in the match but it’s hard to argue Marseille deserved anything from the game. All four of the defeats on Marseille’s losing streak have been by a two-goal margin.
OM have scored just two goals during that span and they’ve had difficulties creating good chances. Marseille did win their first five games under new coach Jean-Louis Gasset but it appears the new manager bounce has worn off. Despite their recent run of form, Marseille’s Europa League results have been solid this season.
They managed a dominant 4-0 win over Villarreal in the Round of 16 first leg, as Aubameyang scored twice. So, it didn’t matter that OM lost the second 3-1 as the French side still advanced. Marseille also defeated Shakhtar Donetsk 5-3 in the Play-off round, on aggregate. Marseille has averaged 2.4 goals per game in the UEL this season compared to 1.5 per game in Ligue 1.
Bettors should note Marseille’s extensive injury list heading into Thursday’s match. While Chancel Mbemba could return, all of Jonathan Clauss, Ismaila Sarr, Bamo Meite, Amir Murillo, and Valentin Rongier could miss out.
Benfica vs Marseille Analysis & Odds
With news of Marseille banning Benfica fans from the reverse fixture, Benfica has followed suit for this match. This will be a hostile environment for Marseille to play in and they’ve looked out of sorts lately. The Benfica vs Marseille odds do price the hosts as -120 favorites to pile onto OM’s misery. Marseille +0.5 sits at -110 odds as they have a decent shot to end their four-game losing streak.
Either a draw (+290) or win (+295) would be excellent for Marseille heading back to France next week. Benfica should be highly motivated for this one, though, after falling to their Lisbon rivals over the weekend. Marseille have certainly played more freely in the Europa League this season but it’ll be a tall task to keep up their scoring pace in the competition. Regardless, over 2.5 goals are priced at -130 odds for Thursday’s showdown in Lisbon.
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