La Liga 1 Matchday 29 Odds: Tight Relegation Battle in La Liga
Basque Derby the Headliner
Tight Relegation Battle in La Liga
With ten games to go, Barcelona have a 13 point lead over their rivals Real Madrid at the top of the table. While they’re very likely to win the league and Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid are almost shoe-ins for the Champions League, the relegation picture isn’t at all clear. Elche, on 13 points, are almost certain to go down. However, there are seven clubs within five points of each other all fighting to avoid the last two spots of the drop. Barcelona, Real and Atletico will all be facing one of those seven clubs this weekend. Meanwhile, the Basque Derby between Athletic Club and Real Sociedad will take center stage. Let’s take a look at the La Liga Matchday 29 odds as the relegation battle heats up.
Match of the Week
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad
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With both Basque giants picking up wins last weekend, Athletic Club and Real Sociedad head into Saturday’s derby with some momentum. In one of the most historic derbies in world football, Real Sociedad have dominated in recent seasons. Sociedad have lost just one of the last seven meetings between the two sides.
Sociedad currently occupy the fourth and final Champions League place and are just four points ahead of Villarreal. A win would go a long way for them here.
However, Athletic Bilbao are home favorites heading into Saturday. Bilbao, currently in seventh place in the La Liga standings, got a 2-1 win over Getafe last weekend. Brothers Inaki and Nico Williams were on the scoresheet. While Oihan Sancet leads the team, with 8 goals, the Williams brothers have combined for 11 goals this season.
Bilbao come in at +120 ATS and moneyline odds but have won just two of the last five Basque derbies at the San Mames. Defender Oscar de Marcos picked up a fifth yellow card of the season last weekend and will miss this match.
Sociedad, who are +250 underdogs, have won just two of their last seven La Liga matches. Japanese international Takefusa Kubo has been on the scoresheet in their last two matches, though. Sociedad +0.5 displays -140 odds and they have one of the best away records in La Liga, at 8-2-4. The last two head-to-head matchups have finished with four goals and over two goals come in at -120 odds here. Don’t expect either side to play for a draw, in what should be a heated contest, but a deadlock sits at +215 odds.
Other Important Matches
Cadiz vs Real Madrid
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Cadiz picked up an important win on Matchday 28 to distance themselves from the relegation zone a bit. Visitors Cadiz managed to defeat nine-man Real Betis 2-0 and have lost just one of their last six La Liga matches. Still, they’re in 14th place, just four points outside of the relegation zone. Meanwhile, second-placed Real Madrid lost a five-goal thriller vs. Villarreal last weekend. Although Real have dropped two of their last three La Liga matches, they’ve also gotten some important recent wins.
Real Madrid smacked Barcelona 4-0 in the Copa del Rey last week to advance to the final vs. Osasuna. Los Blancos also took down Chelsea 2-0 in the first leg of the Champions League Quarterfinals on Wednesday.
Now, the La Liga Matchday 29 odds price Real Madrid as one-goal favorites for Saturday’s match vs. Cadiz. Both Cadiz and Real enter the match at -110 odds to cover the spread but Real are -180 moneyline favorites. Real’s Karim Benzema has scored four goals in his last three appearances, including a hat-trick vs. Barcelona.
Real have scored 14 goals in their last four matches, in all competitions, so it’s no surprise over 2.5 goals sit at -125 odds. Prior to Cadiz’s win over Betis, they hadn’t won since February. However, they have been reasonably competitive vs. Real Madrid in recent years. Cadiz are 1-2-2 in the last five meetings and display +475 odds to get an important win here.
Two of the last three meetings have finished in draws and another comes in at +315 odds. Cadiz have picked up points in four of their last five games with a win, a loss and three draws.
Notably, only Elche have scored fewer goals than Cadiz this season. The Andalusian side doesn’t seem to have a consistent goal scoring option as no Cadiz player has found the net more than three times this season.
Getafe vs Barcelona
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Like Cadiz, Getafe are hovering around the relegation zone. Although they’ve lost just one of their last five games, 15th-placed Getafe are just three points ahead of the drop. They face an incredibly tough test on Saturday when they host Robert Lewandowski and La Liga leaders Barcelona.
It’d take a miracle for another team to win La Liga at this point, but Barça have concerningly failed to score in their last two matches. Granted, Lewandowski and Marc-Andre ter Stegen do lead some important La Liga stats categories. Lewandowski has scored 17 goals this season, while ter Stegen has kept an incredible 21 clean sheets. Following a 4-0 Copa del Rey embarrassment at the hands of Real Madrid, Barça drew 0-0 vs. Girona on Monday.
Now, Barcelona are one-goal favorites on the road at Getafe. Although Barcelona come in at even ATS odds and -180 moneyline odds, they’ve failed to win their last two road matches at Getafe.
A point is crucial for the hosts and they do come in at -120 odds to cover the spread. Meanwhile, a draw displays +290 odds and Getafe sit at +575 odds to get just their eighth win of the season. All of Andreas Christensen, Pedri, Frenkie de Jong and Ousmane Dembele are working to return from injury for Barcelona. All of them are important players for Xavi and the Barcelona midfield has suffered, in particular, in recent weeks.
Meanwhile, only Mauro Arambarri is on the injured list for Getafe. Notably, Getafe have relied on just one player for a large proportion of their scoring. Turkish forward Enes Unal is third in La Liga, with 13 goals. As Getafe have only scored 27 goals this season, Unal accounts for nearly half of their goals. If Barcelona can shut down Unal, they’ll have a good chance of keeping yet another clean sheet. Under 2.5 goals show -145 odds for Saturday’s match.
Atletico Madrid vs Almeria
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Atletico Madrid are on the longest active winning streak in La Liga, with five straight victories. Last Sunday, first half goals from Nahuel Molina and Mario Hermoso downed ten-man Rayo Vallecano. Where Atleti have really shined is on the defensive end, as they’ve conceded just two goals on their streak. On Sunday, they’ll host an Almeria side that has conceded the second-most goals in the league this season.
Almeria are in 16th place and are just three points ahead of the relegation zone but are unbeaten in their last three games. They defeated Valencia 2-1 on Sunday and managed to eke out a 1-0 win over Barcelona in February.
The La Liga Matchday 29 odds price Atletico Madrid as 1.5-goal favorites at -140 odds to cover. Atletico are also massive moneyline favorites to get their six straight wins, at -450 odds. Without other competitions to contend with, Diego Simeone’s side has looked quite focused in recent weeks.
Third-placed Atletico are just two points behind rivals Real Madrid and will certainly be confident of finishing ahead of them. Almeria, who show just +120 odds to cover the spread, have some key absences in this one.
Defender Sergio Akieme has been out injured for the last few weeks. Chumi is out with a suspension and leading scorer El Bilal Toure is out for the season with a thigh injury.
Almeria did manage a 1-1 draw vs. Atletico Madrid earlier in the season but are +1200 moneyline underdogs here. Meanwhile, another draw shows +550 odds. Almeria have conceded 1.6 goals per game in their last five as both over and under three goals display -110 odds here.
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