Real Madrid vs Barcelona Analysis & Odds
Title Implications in El Clasico
Crucial Match for Barcelona
Midweek, Real Madrid and Barcelona had differing fates in the Champions League. While Barcelona went down to ten men and lost to PSG 6-4 on aggregate, Real Madrid managed to defeat Manchester City in penalties at the Etihad. So, while Barcelona crashed out, Real will take on Bayern Munich in the Semifinal. This weekend, Barça and Real will meet in another edition of El Clasico with La Liga implications. Currently eight points behind Real Madrid with seven games to go, Barcelona need to win to stay in the title race. We’ll take a look at the odds, trends, and team news in our Real Madrid vs Barcelona analysis.
Real Madrid vs Barcelona
Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid, Spain
Day/Time:
Real Madrid vs Barcelona H2H
Real Madrid and Barcelona last met in the Supercopa de España Final in January. Real won 4-1 as Vinicius Junior scored a hat trick. In fact, Real Madrid have won each of their last three games vs. Barcelona, in all competitions. Last October, Jude Bellingham scored twice in the second half as Real completed a 2-1 comeback in La Liga. The La Liga betting odds listed Real Madrid as +175 road underdogs. Our Real Madrid vs Barcelona analysis notes that Barcelona has won two of the last three meetings at the Bernabeu.
Real Madrid Advance to UCL Semifinal
Real Madrid did typical Real Madrid things on Wednesday in the Champions League Quarter-Final at Manchester City. Despite being outshot 33-8 by Man City, Real Madrid managed to force extra time and penalties at the Etihad. It was actually Real who scored first in the match, as Jude Bellingham expertly controlled a long ball which started a move that Rodrygo finished off. Manchester City equalized in the second half through Kevin De Bruyne, sending the fixture into extra time.
After a scoreless 30 minutes, Real Madrid were victorious in penalties as Andriy Lunin saved two Manchester City efforts. However, Vini Jr. went off with a groin injury in the second period of extra time and his status is unclear for El Clasico. Regardless, Real Madrid haven’t lost at home since April 2023. Their last 90 minute loss was back in September, away at Atletico Madrid. Nearly all La Liga predictions have Real holding onto their eight point lead with seven games to play.
A win here would virtually guarantee Los Blancos the title. While Vini could suit up, Thibaut Courtois and David Alaba remain out for Sunday’s hosts. Bettors should note Real Madrid have won their last four home games in La Liga, all while keeping shutouts. Last Saturday, Aurelien Tchouameni scored a screamer as Los Blancos took down Mallorca 1-0 on the road.
Red Card Sinks and Lack of Composure Sinks Barcelona
Barcelona’s Champions League match vs. PSG on Tuesday unraveled when Ronald Araujo picked up a straight red card in the 29th minute. Raphinha had put hosts Barcelona ahead 1-0 on the night and 4-2 on aggregate in the 12th minute. However, Barcelona couldn’t weather the PSG storm down a man. Former Barcelona man Ousmane Dembele scored for PSG just before the half.
In the second period, Vitinha scored for PSG to equalize the aggregate score and Kylian Mbappe scored twice to send Barcelona packing. Barcelona’s lack of composure was palpable and manager Xavi also received a red card on Tuesday. Still, Barcelona have been playing well in La Liga lately. They’re in second place in the La Liga table and on a four game winning streak in the league. Barcelona haven’t conceded a La Liga goal for six games, which has been over two months.
Joao Felix scored the game’s only goal as Barcelona took down Cadiz on the road last weekend. While Real Madrid has been unbeaten at home since last April, Barcelona still hasn’t lost a single road match in La Liga this season. This weekend, only Alex Balde and Gavi are on the injury report and they’re both out for the remainder of the campaign.
Real Madrid vs Barcelona Analysis & Odds
Real Madrid are -120 favorites for the third edition of El Clasico this season. Real Madrid has won the other two but this is the first one at the Santiago Bernabeu this season. In the La Liga reverse fixture, Barcelona led for over an hour but a brilliant individual performance from Bellingham powered Real to a win.
Our Real Madrid vs Barcelona analysis notes that at least three goals have been scored in the last seven La Liga fixtures between the two sides. Here, over three goals display -120 odds. Meanwhile, Barcelona are +275 underdogs and a draw sits at +280.
Barcelona’s defense has been excellent lately in La Liga but their clean sheet streak could absolutely come to an end here. Bettors should keep tabs on Vini’s status for Real Madrid, though, as their attack isn’t the same without him. Barcelona +0.5 shows -110 odds as they attempt to remain unbeaten this season on the road.
For La Liga picks, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
