Carroll’s Slow Start, Pitching Injuries Concerning for D’Backs

Arizona has been slow to recapture its form from last October, but a big opportunity awaits this week. The Diamondbacks open a three-game series on Monday (9:40 p.m. ET) at home against the World Series favorite Los Angeles Dodgers.

Los Angeles is a -1.5 favorite (+110) on the run line and -135 on the moneyline for Monday’s opener, with Arizona +1.5 (-130) on the spread and +114 to win outright. Meanwhile, the projected total is 10 with a slight edge to the Over at -115. The Dodgers are also -165 favorites to win the series, compared to +130 for the Diamondbacks.

What should bettors expect? Read on as we break down both MLB teams and assess the odds in our Dodgers vs D’Backs preview. 

Dodgers vs D’Backs Betting Trends

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 14-16 against the run line, including 5-5 over their last 10 games. A majority of Los Angeles’ games have trended toward the Over, as the Dodgers are 17-12-1 against the Over/Under for a cover rate of 58.6%. Only Baltimore (64%) and Milwaukee (63%) have hit the Over at a higher rate this season.

Meanwhile, the Arizona Diamondbacks are 14-15 ATS, including 4-6 over their last 10 games. As for the Over/Under, the Diamondbacks are 12-16-1.

That’s important to remember when assessing the odds in our Dodgers vs D’Backs preview. 

As Good as Advertised

As expected, the Dodgers are off to a strong start, with a National League West-leading 18-12 record. Their six-game winning streak was snapped in a 3-1 loss to Toronto on Sunday.

Los Angeles has been potent offensively, averaging an MLB-best 5.2 runs per game with a .274 batting average. Mookie Betts (6 HR, 23 RBI, 1.137 OPS) has had a big hand in that, as has Shohei Ohtani (7 HR, 18 RBI, 1.038 OPS). Both figure to be in the conversation for NL MVP, along with Freddie Freeman and possibly Will Smith.

Thanks to that, Los Angeles has gone Over the total in 17 of its first 30 games. Its 58.6% cover rate is on par with the best in MLB, tied with Tampa Bay. Be sure to keep that in mind when analyzing the odds in our Dodgers vs D’Backs preview. 

No surprise, oddsmakers remain bullish on the Dodgers. Projected for 100.5 wins, the Dodgers remain favored to win not only the NL (+180) but also the World Series (+350). Atlanta has the second-shortest championship odds at +380.

Much of that will depend on whether the Dodgers can get healthy. Multiple starters remain on the mend, including three-time MLB Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw (shoulder), Walker Buehler (elbow) and Dustin May (elbow).

Injuries Mounting for D’Backs

Contrary to the Dodgers, Arizona has struggled to match big expectations. The Diamondbacks are just 13-16 on the heels of last season’s World Series appearance. They went 4-6 on their recent 10-game homestand, which concluded Sunday with a 3-2 victory over Seattle.

Arizona’s most significant issue is the plight of Corbin Carroll. The reigning NL Rookie of the Year is off to a terribly slow start, batting just .189 with one homer and five RBI. He has also struck out in 21 of his first 106 at-bats. Odds are, Carroll will eventually heat up. But his early season struggles are a big reason why the Diamondbacks have yet to catch fire.

Arizona also continues to deal with concerns from a pitching standpoint. Ace right-hander Zac Gallen left his start on Friday against Seattle with right hamstring tightness, leaving his next appearance in doubt. Gallen — who finished third in the NL Cy Young voting last season — has a 3.38 ERA over his first six starts.

The Diamondbacks are already without starters Eduardo Rodriguez (lat strain), Merrill Kelly (shoulder), and Ryne Nelson (elbow), as well as reliever Paul Sewald (oblique). They can ill afford to lose another pitcher injury, especially their No. 1 starter.

In light of the injuries, Arizona’s odds of winning another pennant have dropped to +2200. The Diamondbacks are also just +4500 to win the World Series, leaving them on par with Detroit, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, and Milwaukee.

Series Probables

Paxton is 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA in his first four appearances as a Dodger. The veteran left-hander is coming off extra rest, having last appeared on Tuesday in a 4-1 win over Washington. Paxton went 4.2 innings, allowing five hits but just one run.

The Diamondbacks will counter with Henry, who has a 5.55 ERA in five appearances. The southpaw is coming off perhaps his best start, having limited St. Louis to one run over six innings in a 14-1 win on Tuesday.

Keep that in mind when assessing the MLB pitching matchups today. 

Knack is slated to make his Major League debut after being recalled from Triple-A Oklahoma City. Knack made the Dodgers’ Opening Day roster for the two-game series in South Korea but did not appear in a game and was sent back to the minors. Since being demoted, the 26-year-old righty had a 4.02 ERA across 15.2 innings.

He will square off with Montgomery, who has settled in nicely with Arizona. The veteran southpaw has allowed four runs across 13 innings over his first two appearances. He signed a one-year, $25 million deal with the Diamondbacks late in spring training.

Yamamoto threw six shutout innings in his last start, striking out seven in a 2-1 victory over Washington on Thursday. The prized hurler from Japan now has 30 strikeouts over his first 22 innings and is 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA. Should he maintain that production, Yamamoto will be a serious contender for NL Rookie of the Year.

The injury-depleted Diamondbacks have yet to name a starter opposite him. That’s important to keep an eye on, as it could affect the odds and our free MLB picks. 

Dodgers vs D’Backs Lines

For MLB score prediction, betting analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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