Guardians vs Blue Jays Series Odds: AL Wild Card Battle

The Toronto Blue Jays are in the thick of the wild card race in the American League. Next up for the club is a three-game series with the Cleveland Guardians at Rogers Centre.

Toronto is -1.5 on the run line (+136) and -155 to win outright in Friday’s series opener, with Cleveland priced +130. The projected total is 8.5, with the Over juiced to -102. Who has the edge? Read on as we break down the matchup in our Guardians vs Blue Jays series odds preview.

Jays Pecking Away at Playoff Race

The Toronto Blue Jays are on the outside looking in of the American League playoff race. But they’re not far off. Only 1.5 games currently separate the Blue Jays (70-58) from the final AL wild card spot. As such, oddsmakers are pricing them -180 to make the postseason.

It helps that the schedule breaks in their favor. The Blue Jays’ next 15 games are against teams under .500. That, of course, includes the Guardians, whom the Blue Jays split a four-game series with earlier this month.They don’t face another club with a winning record until Sept. 11 against the Texas Rangers.

The Blue Jays have dropped two straight and are just 5-7 over their last 12 games. Despite that, their lineup remains fairly productive. They’re tied for eighth in Major League Baseball with a .257 batting average and are 16th in runs scored. Designated hitter Brandon Belt has been especially hot of late, going 6-of-19 with four home runs over the last seven days. Contrast that with first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has a .696 OPS with just one home run in August.

Feeble Offense Holding Back Cleveland

Despite an underwhelming 60-68 record, the Cleveland Guardians remain just 6.0 games out of the AL Central lead. Can they get hot and overtake the first-place Minnesota Twins? Probably not. But the fact that’s even a possibility speaks to the disappointment of the AL Central.

The Guardians have been one of baseball’s worst hitting clubs. They rank 28th in runs scored and have hit only 93 homers, 25 fewer than the next closest MLB team, the Washington Nationals. They were outscored 15-4 over their last two games against the Los Angeles Dodgers and are averaging just 3.6 runs over their last 10 contests.

The absence of first baseman Josh Naylor continues to loom large. Before landing on the 10-day injured list with a strained oblique, Naylor was hitting .306 with 15 homers and 79 RBI. The Guardians are also missing multiple pitchers due to injuries, including ace Shane Bieber (elbow), Cal Quantrill (shoulder) and Triston McKenzie (elbow).

Odds Outlook

Cleveland is 64-64 against the run line but 33-29 on the road. Toronto, meanwhile, is just 59-69 ATS, including 25-34 at home. Notably, the Blue Jays have gone under the projected total 58.2% of the time, more than anyone outside of the Guardians (59.2%). Keep that in mind when assessing the Guardians vs Blue Jays series odds.

Bassitt has been solid in his first year as a Blue Jay, going 12-6 with a 3.92 ERA. He’s tied for third in MLB in both wins and quality starts (16) and is 15th in innings pitched (151.2). According to MLB player stats, the right-hander has gone at least six innings in eight of his last 10 starts. The Guardians will counter with Bibee, who is 9-3 with a 3.01 ERA as a rookie. Bibee threw seven shutout innings in a 1-0 victory over Toronto on Aug. 8, outdueling Kikuchi. He is +1800 to win AL Rookie of the Year, per MLB odds.

Ryu has a 1.89 ERA in four starts (19 innings) since returning Aug. 1 from surgery on his left elbow. He tossed four shutout innings against Cleveland in a 3-1 win on Aug. 7. Ryu will be opposed by another southpaw in Allen, who is 6-6 with a 3.31 ERA. August has easily been his best month on the baseball schedule, with a 1.96 ERA in 23 innings. One knock against Allen has been his control (40 walks in 103.1 innings).

Kikuchi  is 9-4 with a 3.52 ERA. He’s pitched fairly well despite allowing 22 homers in 133 innings. Meanwhile, Syndergaard, acquired last month from the Los Angeles Dodgers, continues to struggle mightily. The former All-Star is 2-6 with a 6.42 ERA. He did, however, beat the Blue Jays on Aug. 10, limiting them to one run over 5.2 frames. That’s important to remember when assessing the Guardians vs Blue Jays series odds.

For MLB betting news, Guardians vs Blue Jays odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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