Mets vs Braves Preview: Does New York Stand A Chance?

Fresh off a series win against the Cardinals, the New York Mets are back in the Wild Card race.

The Mets sold some of their assets at the MLB Trade Deadline, but they’re starting to turn things around. In August, the four significant hitters on the Mets hit at a ridiculous pace. Meanwhile, the starting pitching is healthy and performing at a high level.

New York has plenty of hype heading into its series against the Atlanta Braves. But they’ve consistently struggled to defeat the Braves over the last few years.

Will the Braves ruin all hope that Mets fans have?

Let’s take a look at the Mets vs Braves preview in this NL East showdown.

The Mets Are Back In The Hunt

New York still has to get ahead of the Padres, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Reds, and Cubs. But the Mets have had a red-hot August and will play many of these teams, including the Phillies, in September.

Starting September 5th, the Mets will take on the Nationals for two games, the Diamondbacks for four games, the Reds for three games, the Marlins for six games, and the Phillies for seven games.

If New York can stay within about five games from the Wild Card hunt before September 5th rolls around, the Mets can make the postseason.

No one in New York expects this. But while the Padres bought, the Mets sold at the MLB Trade Deadline. Now both teams have almost identical records. The Mets made the right decision at the deadline. And now they’re allowing other players to showcase their abilities on the baseball diamond, including DJ Stewart, Rafael Ortega, and Danny Mendick.

New York had a lot go wrong for them this season. However, those role players, along with the four essential bats, are performing at a high level, including Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and Jeff McNeil.

Plus, the starting rotation has Joey Lucchesi and Jose Quintana back. Meanwhile, Kodai Senga looks sensational.

Don’t count at the Mets just yet. Today’s MLB standings will be different by October.

Atlanta is the World Series Favorite

The Braves are currently favorites to win the World Series at +330 odds. They’ve already reached the 80-win mark, and we’re not even in September.

Some analysts have even acknowledged the Braves as one of the best teams baseball has ever seen. But Atlanta would have to win the World Series to be considered one of the best teams ever.

Atlanta’s got the NL Home Run leader in Matt Olson and the most-likely MVP in Ronald Acuna Jr. The offense is on pace for a top OPS in the history of baseball.

Meanwhile, Spencer Strider would likely be third in the National League for the NL Cy Young. He’s broke records for strikeouts in a season this year.

Atlanta’s seeing the ball better than the Houston Astros saw it when they cheated with garbage cans.

That’s how good the Braves have been this year.

Atlanta has the power, speed, and pitching to earn another World Series. This would be the second World Series in three seasons if the Braves could pull it all off.

Below is a Mets vs Braves preview for the probable pitchers on the slate.

The Mets will likely give David Peterson another start in Game 1 of the series. Peterson is a left-hander who has allowed a .200 ISO and wOBA of .409 to his last 52 righties. Atlanta’s got a bunch of powerful righties, which could bite Peterson in this game.

The left-hander has walked 21.2% of righties while only earning 19.2% of strikeouts. That’s never a good sign. However, he’s also earned 61% of ground balls and has allowed just 14.6% of fly balls. That has allowed him to escape worse damage.

Conversely, Allan Winans will get the start for the Braves. He last pitched against the Mets and went seven innings, allowing no runs. He struck out nine and allowed just four hits. The Mets have tape on Winans now. Don’t be surprised if New York has more success this time around.

The Braves are at -205, while the Mets are sitting at +170. Meanwhile, the total is 10, with the Over slightly juiced to -112. In this Mets vs Braves preview for the first game, I’d take the Over.

It’ll be Tylor Megill for the Mets’ second game. Megill has watched his last 35 lefties hit a .353 ISO and wOBA of .512. This is likely a good spot for Matt Olson to hit a homer. The left-hander currently leads the NL in home runs this season and would be in a great place against Megill.

Megill has allowed over 33% of line drives and has only induced 40.7% of grounders over the last month. He’s also allowed over 59% of hard contact. The Braves will likely have a field day.

On the other hand, Bryce Elder will get the call for the Braves. Elder has allowed a .182 ISO and wOBA of .364 to his last 52 lefties. But he’s dominated against right-handed hitters. That’s how it’s been for him all year long.

However, New York is starting to get hot against right-handed pitching. Other than Rafael Ortega, the entire projected lineup has slugged an above-average ISO against righties in the last month. They’ve also limited strikeouts to 17.6% in the previous 30 days as a lineup.

I’d take the Over in this game too. Forget about the MLB spreads.

If the Mets want to salvage one game, it’ll likely have to be this one. Jose Quintana’s MLB player stats have been terrific since his return to the mound. Quintana has held his last 129 batters to a .081 ISO and wOBA of .276. He won’t earn a high rate of strikeouts, but he’s kept line drives below 22% and has held teams to a 34.8% hard contact rate.

He’s the one pitcher in this series who can keep the Mets in a game against the Braves.

Meanwhile, Charlie Morton is a veteran righty who hasn’t pitched like one recently for Atlanta. He’s walked 16.2% of his last 117 batters and has watched lefties hit a .415 wOBA. The Mets will work the count against Morton and find ways on base. Earlier this season, New York couldn’t score with runners on base. But that’s changed over the last couple of weeks. The Mets can get this one.

For MLB picks today, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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