Mets vs Red Sox Betting Preview: New York’s Hopes Diminishing

Both the Boston Red Sox and New York Mets are still clinging to hopes of a busy October, though their current standings are hardly comparable. That’s because few, if anyone, can be compared to the Mets, who have little to show for their record spending spree.

Boston is -1.5 (+164) on the run line and a -114 favorite to win Friday’s series opener at Fenway Park, with New York priced at +104. The projected total is 9.5, with the Over slightly juiced to -110. Read on for our Mets vs Red Sox betting preview.

Sox Sticking Around

The Boston Red Sox are 51-46 yet their path to the playoffs remains murky. The American League East appears out of reach. The division is a buzzsaw, with all five MLB teams sitting over .500. Boston entered Thursday in fourth place, 8.0 games behind both the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles. The wild card seems much more attainable at the moment, with the Toronto Blue Jays clinging to the third and final playoff spot by 2.5 games.

While oddsmakers still aren’t fully bought in on Boston’s staying power — the Red Sox are +250 to make the playoffs, compared to -325 to miss it — the Red Sox have provided reasons for optimism. For starters, they own a plus-35 run differential, indicating they’re a good bet to remain in the mix for the length of the MLB season.

What else is there to like about the Red Sox standings? Their lineup, fueled by two-time All-Star third baseman Rafael Devers and rookie outfielder Masataka Yoshida, has been potent. The Red Sox rank fourth in average, fifth in runs and sixth in OPS. The one downside: Boston’s hit the fifth fewest home runs (105) in the AL.

Yoshida, signed to a five-year, $90 million deal in the offseason, has been a revelation since arriving from Japan. He’s batting .317 with 50 RBI and an .881 OPS. While Texas third baseman Josh Jung is currently a +150 favorite for AL Rookie of the Year, Yoshida is close behind at +200.

Oh the Pain

The New York Mets are unquestionably one of the biggest disappointments in baseball. Despite a record $345 million payroll, the 45-50 Mets began Thursday 7.0 games out of the National League Wild Card. Priced +750 to win the World Series in spring training, making them NL co-favorites with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Mets are now +375 to simply make the playoffs, according to Major League Baseball odds.

Injuries have crept up of late, complicating the Mets’ desperate climb back to contention. Outfielder Starling Marte was placed on the 10-day injured list on Thursday with migraines. Marte had missed three of the previous four games. Marte’s performance has dropped off dramatically after an All-Star first season with New York. He’s batting .254 with five homers, 28 RBI and 24 stolen bases.

That was before the Mets lost outfielder Tommy Pham to an apparent injury in their series finale against the Chicago White Sox. Pham, who recently missed time with groin tightness, was pulled after grounding into a double play to conclude the third inning. Pham is second on the Mets with an .831 OPS. His status is worth monitoring in our Mets vs Red Sox betting preview.

Odds Outlook

The Mets entered Thursday 38-57 against the run line, the second-worst cover rate in MLB behind the Kansas City Royals (35-62). Conversely, the Red Sox are 51-46 ATS, including 23-25 at home.

Notably, the Mets, who are just 39-52-4 against the Over, have scored the fewest first-inning runs (31) of any team. Keep that in mind as you assess the odds in our Mets vs Red Sox betting preview.

Paxton is coming off his worst start of the season. He gave up six runs over three innings in a 10-4 loss to the Chicago Cubs on Saturday. The 34-year-old left-hander has been solid outside of that, turning in a 3.51 ERA and 68 strikeouts in 59 innings after missing all last season due to injury.

His opposition, Senga, made the NL All-Star team as a 30-year-old rookie. Senga is 7-5 with a 3.20 ERA in his first season since arriving from Japan. He owns the fifth-best strikeout rate in baseball (11.5 K/9) but has struggled with his control, having walked 49 in 95.2 innings. Despite his success, the right-hander is a +8000 longshot to win NL Rookie of the Year.

In the upcoming Mets vs Red Sox matchup, Crawford is 4-4 with a 3.74 ERA across 18 appearances (10 starts). The 27-year-old right-hander is coming off one of his best outings, in which he threw six shutout innings with nine strikeouts in an 11-5 victory over the Cubs on Sunday. He owns a 2.87 ERA in July.

The Mets will counter with Scherzer, who has struggled to recapture his Cy Young form. It’s raised questions about whether age is starting to catch up to the right-hander, who turns 39 next week. Scherzer is 8-3 with a 3.99 ERA, but he’s been hurt by the long ball. He’s already allowed 18 homers in 94 innings, five more than all of 2022. Notably, Scherzer threw seven one-hit innings in his last start, a 2-1, 10-inning victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday.

Carrasco is 3-3 with a 5.35 ERA. Like Scherzer, home runs have been an issue (13 allowed in 65.2 innings). Boston, meanwhile, has yet name a starter.

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