MLB Opening Month Betting Review After (Almost) A Month
Where Do Things Stand In Late April?
It’s hard to believe but basically every MLB team is more than 1/10 of the way through its regular season schedule. The 2023 season is in full swing and while it’s still April — and the chilly weather during many of this year’s games so far is clear evidence of that — there’s a big enough sample size of baseball in the books to start taking a look at some betting trends in our MLB opening month betting review.
So, let’s take a walk through the league and see not only which teams have been the best (or worst) on the run-line or which teams have hit the over (or under) the most based on the MLB standings, but also what the major races look like right now.
The Overperformers
In terms of record on (or against) the run line, the best team in MLB this season has unsurprisingly been the Tampa Bay Rays (15-4). Considering that they won their first 13 games and are leading the league in home runs, the Rays have easily beat the spread in the vast majority of their games.
Right behind them, though, are a couple of teams that most people didn’t expect to be particularly good. The Chicago Cubs (12-5), Milwaukee Brewers (13-6) and Arizona Diamondbacks (13-6) have all made bettors a lot of money so far as they have jumped out to great MLB results in the early going. Sure, regression will likely kick in soon — especially for Chicago, which has been absolutely raking — but, for now, all three of those teams are hitting their stride and have been very profitable to bet on.
The Underperformers
On the other end of our MLB opening month betting review as the worst teams against the run line are the Colorado Rockies (4-15) and Kansas City Royals (5-14). Those teams’ struggles were expected but to be that bad against the run line means that ‘they’re both getting blown out’ – is relatively common. And, the worst part for each of them is that there isn’t much reason to expect things to get better.
The High Scorers
The teams that have hit the over the most often are the Boston Red Sox (13-6), Oakland Athletics (12-6-1) and Texas Rangers (12-6). For Boston and Oakland, the main reason has been pitching or, rather, the lack of it. Boston’s rotation has been very bad and Oakland’s has been even worse, with the A’s looking like one of the worst teams in recent baseball history. For Texas, the pitching has actually been decent — adding Jacob deGrom helps — while the offense has produced the second-most runs in the Majors. Look for each of these teams to continue to reliably go over the total.
The Low Scorers
The biggest under teams have been the New York Yankees (6-12 on the over), Miami Marlins (6-12-1) and, shockingly, the Minnesota Twins (6-10-2). The Yankees — behind Cy Young Award front-runner Gerrit Cole — have one of MLB’s deepest pitching staffs and the Marlins have a good rotation coupled with a mediocre lineup.
The Twins have been big on the under in our MLB opening month betting review but not because their strong lineup has performed well. In fact, it’s the opposite: Minnesota has been in the bottom-third in most major offensive categories while the pitching staff has been dominant from top-to-bottom. Minnesota’s rotation is in the top-three in ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9 and H/9 and the bullpen is No. 1 in WHIP, No. 2 in BB/9 and No. 3 in ERA. That’ll play.
The Major Awards
Before the season started, Shohei Ohtani (+220) was the clear front-runner for AL MVP with Aaron Judge (+700) and Mike Trout (+800) comfortably behind them. Thus far, not much has changed generally speaking but Ohtani — with a 152 OPS+ and 0.86 ERA — has become an even bigger favorite, as he’s down to +120 at some books. It’s not like Judge (6 HRs) or Trout (174 OPS+) have been disappointing; it’s just that it’s extremely hard for them to outshine what Ohtani does on a daily basis.
The NL MVP race has been much more interesting. Juan Soto (+550) opened up as a solid favorite but, after a rather pedestrian couple of weeks to begin the year, he’s up to +800 and Ronald Acuña Jr. (+300) is the presumptive favorite thanks in part to a .368 batting average. Trea Turner (+650) is down from +1100 preseason even with the Phillies’ struggles while Turner’s former Dodgers teammate Mookie Betts (+1000) has slipped a bit from +900 preseason because he hasn’t hit for much power yet.
Gerrit Cole has become the frontrunner in the AL Cy Young battle, currently sitting at +600 after beginning the season at +700. Cole has been lights out, winning all four of his starts and leading MLB with 28.1 innings pitched, all while boasting a 0.95 ERA. His odds have essentially swapped with those of Jacob deGrom (currently +700), who was roughed up in his Rangers’ debut but has been sharp since. Dylan Cease (also +700) was the Cy Young runner-up a year ago and has continued to shine, posting a 2.01 ERA in four starts.
The preseason co-favorite Sandy Alcantara (+550) has seen his odds rise from +500 amid an up-and-down March/April but he’s still the favorite. Alcantara has one shutout to go with three so-so starts, resulting in a 5.84 ERA. Corbin Burnes (+700) was also +500 before the year but he too has struggled out of the gates with his strikeout numbers down significantly. Justin Verlander (+600 preseason and +1400 now) has yet to pitch due to injury while his teammate Max Scherzer (steady at +800) has dealt with injury, ineffectiveness and even an ejection due to a foreign substance check. Spencer Strider (down to +800 from +900) is leading the Majors in strikeouts as he looks to follow up on a great rookie campaign.
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