Padres vs Brewers Preview: Milwaukee’s Bats Beginning to Heat Up

Looking to maintain their grip atop the National League Central, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the San Diego Padres this weekend for a three-game series at American Family Field.

San Diego is currently a slight underdog for Friday’s opener, at -100 to win outright, with Milwaukee coming in at -110 as the favorite. The projected total is 8.0 flat to both sides. Read on as we break down both Major League Baseball clubs in our Padres vs Brewers preview.

Brewers on a Roll

The Milwaukee Brewers are still clinging to first place in the National League Central, though the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds remain on their heels at 3.5 games back in the 2023 MLB standings. The Brewers have played better of late, with five straight wins since getting swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Oddsmakers are confident they’ll hold onto first, pricing them -260 to win the division. It is easy to see why. The lineup is heating up at the right time. Milwaukee’s averaged 7.2 runs over its current win streak. Shortstop Willy Adames has been particularly hot, going 10-for-26 with three home runs and nine RBI over the last seven days. Catcher William Contreras (6-for-19) and outfielder Christian Yelich (7-of-26) have also stepped up during that stretch.

Can Milwaukee’s lineup maintain that pace? The Brewers rank 21st in runs, 22nd in home runs, and 28th in batting average. Milwaukee should be in good shape to capture its second division title in three seasons if it can.

Padres Falling Flat

At this point, nothing is saving the San Diego Padres from going down as a major flop. The Padres are 61-67, a whopping 17.0 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West and 6.0 games out of the wild card, with four teams still between them and the final spot. They’re a +800 long shot to make the playoffs, which seems a bit overzealous given the hill they must climb.

San Diego’s lineup remains a disappointment. Despite a who’s who of former All-Stars, the Padres rank 15th in runs and 25th in batting average. Wholesale changes could be in store this offseason, but the Padres are left playing out the string for now. It’s certainly not what was expected when ownership raised payroll to $252 million this offseason, No. 3 in baseball behind the Mets ($343 million) and Yankees ($279 million).

To make matters worse, reliever Robert Suarez, one of San Diego’s big offseason acquisitions (five years, $46 million), was ejected from Wednesday’s 4-0 win over the Miami Marlins for having sticky stuff on his left wrist and arm. Suarez, who’s posted a 4.73 ERA since returning from the MLB injured list, is facing a 10-game suspension for the violation. Keep that in mind when reviewing our Padres vs Brewers preview.

Odds Outlook

Milwaukee has been one of the least profitable teams for bettors, with a 58-69 record against the run line, including just 25-37 at American Family Field. The Brewers’ 40.3% cover rate at home is the second-worst in MLB behind the Philadelphia Phillies (36.1%). San Diego hasn’t fared much better at ATS, going 29-31 on the road and 62-66 overall. The Padres have also gone under the projected total 57.5% of the time, while the Brewers are at 54.1%. That’s important to remember when assessing the MLB odds in our Padres vs Brewers preview.

After missing more than three months with a shoulder injury, Woodruff, a two-time All-Star, has made three starts in August. He’s allowed eight runs (five home runs) in 16.2 innings this month but has a 2.89 ERA on the season. Woodruff opposes Darvish, who is 8-9 with a 4.35 ERA. He faced the Brewers on April 12, allowing one run over seven innings while striking out a season-high 12 in a 1-0 loss.

Freddy Peralta has been terrific this month, going 4-0 with a 1.82 ERA in four starts. He’s posted double-digit strikeouts in three of his last five starts and has 168 strikeouts on the season, the 10th-most in MLB. He is 10-8 with a 3.97 ERA overall. The Padres will counter with Avila, who has pitched primarily out of the bullpen. Avila’s registered a 1.50 ERA in five appearances this month, none lasting more than 4.2 innings.

According to MLB player stats, Houser is 5-4 with a 4.28 ERA. Wacha, meanwhile, is 10-2 with a 2.63 ERA. Since returning from the IL, Wacha has allowed only one run in 10.1 innings this month while striking out 12.

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