Pirates vs Brewers Series Preview: First Place on The Line in NL Central
Pirates Clinging to HalF Game Lead
Who will win the National League Central? Right now, it’s anyone’s guess. The division has been mediocre at best, with four of the five teams sitting at .500 or worse. Right now, Pittsburgh is in first, albeit by just a half-game over Milwaukee.
Can the Pirates stay there? They’ll travel to American Family Field to face the second-place Brewers this weekend for a three-game set. Milwaukee is a -165 moneyline favorite to win the series, with Pittsburgh priced at +135.
Read on for our Pirates vs Brewers series preview.
Pirates vs Brewers 
Day/Time:
Location: American Family Field
Time to Fade Pittsburgh?
Pittsburgh went 20-9 in April but has fallen back to Earth. Just 14-24 since then, the Pirates are clinging to a half-game lead. What’s worse is, they’re coming off a three-game sweep against the Cubs in which they were outscored 28-11.
Oddsmakers have begun to fade Pittsburgh, dropping their chances of winning the division to +550. Those are the same odds shared by St. Louis and Chicago, while Cincinnati is slightly behind at +650.
It’s worth noting that Pittsburgh’s run differential is minus-15, the third-worst in the NL Central. The Pirates are the only division leader with a negative run differential, which obviously doesn’t bode well for their chances of staying in contention. Fortunately for them, the division as a whole has underwhelmed.
Suwinski Heating Up
Pirates outfielder Jack Suwinski has been one of baseball’s hottest hitters of late. Suwinski has homered four times over his last six games and owns a 1.062 OPS in June, providing a serious thump to the middle of Pittsburgh’s lineup.
For the season, Suwinski, 24, leads Pittsburgh with 15 homers and a .894 OPS. His 35 RBI are second behind outfielder Bryan Reynolds, who has 38.
One concern about Suwinski: He has struggled against left-handed pitching, with only nine hits in 47 at-bats (.191 average). All 15 of his homers have come versus right-handers, per MLB stats. Notably, Milwaukee is slated to start one lefty in our Pirates vs Brewers series preview.
Brew Crew Scuffling
Milwaukee is in a major rut right now. Losers of six straight, the Brewers are 34-34 and sitting a half-game behind Pittsburgh. The Brewers were swept at home by the woeful Athletics and followed that up by dropping a pair to the Twins. Despite that, Milwaukee is currently listed as an even-money favorite to win the NL Central.
The Brewers’ poor run differential (minus-25) doesn’t offer much optimism, but they do have some potent bats, including former NL Most Valuable Player Christian Yelich, who has a .791 OPS and 16 stolen bases. First baseman Rowdy Tellez leads the team with 12 home runs.
Right-hander Corbin Burnes — who is not slated to pitch in our Pirates vs Brewers series preview — heads the rotation with a 3.44 ERA and 83 strikeouts in 83.2 innings. Burnes is currently priced at +1800 to win the Cy Young, matching the seventh-shortest odds on the board.
Game 1
Julio Teheran vs Rich Hill
Day/Time:
Teheran has pitched well since signing a one-year deal in May, recording a 1.48 ERA in four starts. In his last outing on the MLB schedule, June 10 against Oakland, Teheran threw a season-high seven innings. He opposes 43-year-old left-hander Rich Hill, who is 6-5 with a 4.23 ERA.
Milwaukee is -1.5 (+160) on the run line and a -112 favorite to win outright, with Pittsburgh priced at +102. The projected total is 9.
Game 2
Wade Miley vs Mitch Keller
Day/Time:
Miley will be coming off the Injured List, having not started since May 16 because of a left lat strain. The 36-year-old southpaw is 3-2 with a 3.67 ERA.
Keller ranks third in baseball in wins (8) and fourth in strikeouts (101).
Game 3
Freddy Peralta vs Luis L. Ortiz
Day/Time:
Peralta’s ERA is 4.73, his highest since 2019 (5.29). Home runs (13 in 70.1 innings) have been an issue. Ortiz has a 4.64 ERA in seven appearances (six starts).
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