2023-24 NBA Western Conference Odds Preview: Nuggets Still Golden?
Denver at the Top With Legitimate Contenders Not Far Behind
Nuggets Lead Conference Odds But Not By Much
Unlike the Eastern Conference, the NBA’s Western Conference is where it can get wild. Based on the Western Conference odds, we have at least four NBA teams NBA teams who you could group on the same tier as far as being the most likely to win. The defending champions, the Denver Nuggets, sit at the top. But their stay there could be shaky, given how the top contenders look.
Denver’s Path Back to the NBA Finals is Tougher, On Paper
The Nuggets have the shortest odds (+250) to win the West and return to the Finals per the NBA Western Conference odds. But it’s not by much, as you have a trio out of the Pacific Division: Phoenix at +300 and the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State at +650 each. These three were all in the NBA Finals in recent seasons.
Despite being ahead, Denver’s path back could be more challenging once it reaches the playoffs. The top three runners-up all bolstered their ranks while the Nuggets lost Bruce Brown and Jeff Green, two key NBA players in their title run. Other than that, at -500, Denver should have no problems winning the Northwest Division as it accumulates around 53.5 wins as the sportsbook has it.
Nikola Jokic is once again in the running to win the MVP. He has the shortest odds at +250, and maybe some analyst won’t have to race-bait to lose him his rightful award. The two-time winner had a historically dominant playoff run as he led the entire postseason in scoring, rebounding, and assists. Even with the Pacific’s arms race, going against this Serbian Superman will be tough.
The Battle of the Pacific: Three For the Money
The Suns would be considered NBA favorites by many thanks to acquiring All-Star Bradley Beal. This gives the team an All-Star trio of Beal, Devin Booker, and Kevin Durant. They are instead saddled with the shortest odds to win the Pacific Division at +175.
But as intimidating as the Suns are on paper, they have many questions about their depth and defense (or lack thereof). That’s something the Lakers and Warriors are better at. And with longer odds for both conference and division, either are better bets than the Suns.
The Lakers could be resurgent once again. This team shot up the NBA West standings after trading Russell Westbrook just before the All-Star break. The Lakers went 18-8 and headed to the playoffs with an 110.8 defensive rating. Both were top-three marks in the league.
Being swept by Denver only prompted the team to upgrade in the offseason. The Lakers re-signed its younger cast while adding more young players like Gabe Vincent from Miami and former lottery pick Cam Reddish.
Conversely, the WarriorsWarriors, on the other hand, got older by trading for former Suns point guard Chris Paul. The future Hall of Famer is 38 and may have lost a step. But he could be an upgrade over Jordan Poole, and teams typically go over their regular-season win totals (47.5 for GS) when he joins.
Which Dark Horses or Wild Cards Could Crash the Odds?
When the 2022-23 NBA season started, the Nuggets were fifth in the NBA Western Conference odds at +725. That means there is more than a chance for the likes of the Clippers (10-1), Grizzlies, and Mavericks (both at 12-1). A lot of things will just have to go their way.
For the Clippers, this franchise remains cursed. But maybe that’s to be expected as its star duo of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George can’t stay healthy. The last time they played together in the NBA playoffs was back in the bubble. If this team somehow gets both to show up in the postseason, the Clippers might do some damage.
Memphis’s and Dallas’s hopes are tied to two mercurial guards: Ja Morant and Kyrie Irving, respectively. The former is serving a 25-game suspension thanks to his compulsion to act like he’s in a gangsta rap video. While the latter has not met a team, he has not wanted to cause headaches.
Still, Memphis has the fourth-most wins in the NBA since 2021, and Dallas was in the Western Conference Finals just two playoffs ago. On top of that, Luka Doncic is just behind Nikola Jokic in MVP odds (+600) in the conference. Both are tied at +160 to win the Southwest Division in the division odds.
New Orleans, New Contender?
But as we touted New York over in the East, we’ll tout New Orleans here at 22-1 to win the West (tied with Sacramento) and +225 to win the Southwest. Of course, this all hinges on star forward Zion Williamson’s availability. The former first-overall pick has played a total of 114 NBA games since he was drafted in 2019. That is an average of 28.5 games a season.
Still, New Orleans is not unlike Memphis: a young and hungry team that had the third-best defensive rating in 2023 after the All-Star break. With Williamson, the team’s offense also reaches new heights. It averages 116.7 points per game with him and 111.5 without him.
But, like the Clippers, it’s hard to put a lot of faith in a player known for missing games. So, it may be best to wait for New Orleans’s outright odds to lengthen. It was at 60-1 before the playoffs last basketball season. That might be worth a dart throw should he return for the playoffs.
The Kings of the Young Contenders?
Kings fans may feel slighted that they’re just an afterthought here. But despite being last season’s surprise team, Sacramento might be hard-pressed to repeat the feat. The Kings ended a 17-year playoff drought and won 48 games, much more than the preseason’s 34.5 NBA prediction.
Sacramento did it with the top offense in the NBA, scoring over 120 points a game. The Kings also benefited from having one of the healthiest lineups. Their top six players all played at least 73 games. What are the odds of this team staying as intact as this for 2023-24? Enough for the Kings to make the playoffs again at -230.
But to win anything in the postseason is a long shot. We’d rather punt on Oklahoma City or Minnesota at 35-1. They finished 10th and eighth in the West last season, respectively. The odds have each favored to make the playoffs at around the -135 to -150 range.
Rockets, not Spurs, Could Best of the Worst
Last and potentially least are the quartet of Portland, Houston, Utah, and San Antonio. All are tied at 150-1 to win the conference. They have no shot. All have long odds to make the playoffs, with the shortest line being at +250 for Utah, who finished 12th with 38 wins last season. Of these four, the Rockets, not the Spurs, have the most potential.
Houston spent a lot on guards Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks. The bet is that their veteran savvy and fighting spirit will rub off on a team that has won just a quarter of its games (59-177) since 2020. The Rockets are +600 to make the playoffs and +450 to get to the Play-In Tournament. The latter is worth a bet.
San Antonio with Victor Wembanyama, the prophesied Messiah, is +850 to make the playoffs and +650 to get to the Play-In Tournament. Yeah, no thanks.
For NBA betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
