Little Line Movement in College Football This Week

There wasn’t quite as much line movement during the week for college football games this week as there has been. At this point of the season, oddsmakers, along with bettors, have a decent grasp on most of the NCAAF teams. The college football odds for this week did show more movement in totals than on sides. That makes sense, as weather forecasts and injuries aren’t always known at the beginning of the week. We’ll take a look at some of the college football Week 11 early lines and see where they’ve moved to.

The college football Week 11 early lines came out with South Alabama -11 and the line has climbed to 13.5. Arkansas State (5-4) could be a little better than its stats suggest. The Red Wolves opened the season being outscored 110-3 by Oklahoma and Memphis before winning five of their last seven. Arkansas State still has a negative point differential and has some less-than-stellar stats to go with that.

South Alabama (4-5) remains a mystery this season. This is a team that absolutely thumped Oklahoma State 33-7 and then turned around and lost to Louisiana a couple of weeks ago. The Jaguars are no lock to appear in a bowl game, needing to win two of its final three. But, the line move makes some sense. The Sagarin ratings have South Alabama 11.2 points better on a neutral field, so will tag along and take the Jags -13.5.

The No. 22 Iowa Hawkeyes host Rutgers on Saturday in a game that has seen the total drop one point. That wouldn’t typically be worth of mention. But when the college football Week 11 early lines came out with a total of 29 and it dropped, it is significant. It’s the lowest college football total at least since 1999. There have been more than 1,000 games with higher first-half totals in just the last four years. And still the number dropped.

Rutgers isn’t bad offensively, scoring 26.8 points against teams allowing 23.7 points. Defensively, the Scarlet Knights hold teams to 17.9 points. Iowa is scoring just 18.4 points per game and holding foes to 13.7 points. Iowa’s last six totals have been in the 30s and the Hawkeyes are 1-5, going over against State.

If you’re going to use the under 28 in your picks and parlays, you’ll be cheering for the punters and Iowa does have a good one in Tory Taylor, who is averaging 47.8 yards per punt. Rutgers’ Flynn Appleby is averaging just 40.7 yards per punt. Both punters are from Australia.

The No. 6 Oregon Ducks host the USC Trojans at Autzen Stadium Saturday night and the points are expected to come fast and furious. The total on the game opened at 73.5 and has climbed to 77. The move isn’t totally unexpected, coming on the heels of Washington’s 52-42 win over USC and Oregon’s 62-point outburst against California. Southern Cal is averaging 45.5 points, but allowing 34.5. Oregon is averaging 47.4 points and allowing 16.

The Trojans like to run the ball, but the Ducks defend the run pretty well, allowing 3.3 yards per carry. USC runs nearly 30 times a game and averaging 5.4 yards per carry, so USC will need to move the ball on the ground to keep it close. The Ducks also run quite a bit and do it better. Oregon is averaging 207.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per carry. The Trojans don’t defend the run very well, so there could be some big gains on the ground.

As good as both teams run the ball, they’re even better passing with Caleb Williams and Bo Nix. The Trojans throw for 326.7 yards per game and the Ducks are averaging 332.4.

But the total is the highest one seen in college football this season. The over/under in the Washington vs USC game was 76.5. It’s a tough call, but would lean to the under and hope the Oregon defense can make a statement.

The No. 18 Utah Utes are the latest team to try and knock the No. 5 Washington Huskies (9-0) from the ranks of the unbeaten. But the Huskies are favored by 8.5 points. The total has moved from 53.5 points to 49.5, which is a decent move against a team that just scored 52 points and allowed 42. The Huskies are -350 on the moneyline, which is close to the betting odds calculator showing an 8.5-point favorite at -355.

Utah isn’t a great offensive team, but it likes to run the ball. The Utes run 43.2 times per game and throw 24.6. That could help keep Michael Pennix and the Washington offense off the field. Utah averages more than 34 minutes of possession, which could be a big factor here. Utah’s defense is solid, allowing a high of 35 points to Oregon. Utah allows 15.9 points to teams averaging 29.2 points.

The Huskies can score, averaging 41.7 points per game against teams allowing an average of 29.1 points. But Washington’s defense isn’t all that bad, allowing 23 points per game. UW is better defending the pass, so the Utes are going to test the rush defense often. The line move here makes sense, so take the under 49.5.

For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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