Back the Bills To Exploit Injury-Riddled Dolphins
The Buffalo Bills visit the Miami Dolphins in the final game of the 2023 NFL season with the AFC East title at stake. The surging Bills are favored by a field goal as the Dolphins, the home team, have suffered critical injuries. The Bills have gutted out close victories lately, but this NFL team is in better shape than Miami. As such, our Bills vs Dolphins free pick feels a tad obvious.
Records: Bills (10-6)/Dolphins (11-5)
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Streaming: Watch Live Sports
Bettors Backing Buffalo
The early results show around two-thirds of the public betting on the Bills on the NFL odds. Buffalo remains a three-point favorite, but this could move to 3.5 if they keep getting money. It may be harder to gain support for Miami, given some of its injuries. Buffalo has also owned Miami since Josh Allen became quarterback.
The Allen-led Bills are 10-2 against the Dolphins. He’s put up lofty NFL QB stats against Miami: 41 total touchdowns against seven interceptions. Buffalo has scored 30+ points in nine of its last 11 games, and the totals have gone over seven out of the last 10 times. It is set at 50.5 here.
Bills are Rolling Despite Allen’s Passing Issues
Buffalo is riding high and may be the most dangerous team heading the postseason. But not everything is “gravy” with this team and it begins with its quarterback: Allen. The former MVP runner-up has been inefficient since the bye, throwing three touchdowns versus three picks and completing just 55.6% of his throws. Still, Buffalo is 4-0 during this span.
The Bills are finding ways to win amidst its issues. Allen has scored with his legs: six rushing TDs, while the defense has forced vital turnovers. Buffalo has won the turnover battle in three of the last four games. So they are still not covering spreads, especially lofty one – just 2-2 ATS (against the spread) since the bye. But we’re only working with a field goal here.
Buffalo used to be notorious for losing close games. But three of its last four victories have come by six points or fewer. And with Allen completing 15 or fewer passes in the previous three games, the Bills are less likely to run up NFL scores.
Still, the Miami defense got obliterated by Baltimore and lost one of its best players. So, a vintage blowout win by Buffalo would be a welcome return to form. Either way, they are the right side in this Bills vs Dolphins free pick.
Miami is Limping To The Playoffs
The Dolphins got emasculated with a 56-19 thrashing against Baltimore. Not only was this a humiliating loss to Baltimore, but they also lost star linebacker Bradley Chubb for the season. On top of that, cornerback Xavien Howard left the game with an NFL injury.
“One of my least favorite things in the sport and from my role is seeing a competitor go down and then have to get a cart,” Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel said. “So it’s always pretty emotional, just in general, but we don’t have reallyt the information to know exactly what it is yet.”
That’s just the defense. On offense, running back Raheem Mostert, wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, and guard Robert Hunt are also dealing with injuries. And with the playoffs quickly approaching, the Dolphins may not have enough time or energy to adapt. Miami has not had a break since seven weeks ago.
And the team needs to beat Buffalo to clinch the division and gain home-turf advantage in the NFL playoff picture. Miami’s odds do not look so good. Miami is just 1-4 ATS as an underdog this season. And that cover came against the Chargers, who are 5-11 and just fired their coach. Now is not a good time to be a Dolphins backer.
Going Against January Trends
The total has gone over in four of Buffalo’s last five NFL games played in January while Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five games this month. But given the situations these teams find themselves in, it’s time to bet against these trends as the Bills should win in a low-scoring game.
And the Pick is…
The late bye and coaching change are just what Buffalo needed. The result is a gutsier and shrewder team that can find ways to win without having to depend too heavily on its superstar quarterback. And it meets the Miami Dolphins, which is getting hit by adversity at a deflating time. It’s all about timing in the NFL. And our Bills vs Dolphins free pick say it’s Buffalo’s time. Bet: Buffalo Bills -3