Bills vs Patriots Head to Head: Buffalo Near Double-Digit Favorite Over Rival
New England among NFL's least profitable teams at 1-5 ATS
The Buffalo Bills will look to add to the New England Patriots‘ woes when the AFC rivals meet Sunday (1 p.m. ET) at Gillette Stadium.
After opening at -6.5, the Bills are now 8.5-point favorites (-110) and -405 on the moneyline. Conversely, the Patriots are +8.5 (-110) on the NFL spread and +325 to pull off the upset. Meanwhile, the projected total has dropped from 43.5 to 41 (-110 Over, -110 Under).
Can the Bills take care of business? Read on as we break down both teams and dive into the Bills vs Patriots head to head odds in our NFL game preview.
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots 
Day/Time:
Location: Gillette Stadium; Foxborough, Mass.
Streaming: CBS
Bills vs Patriots Betting Trends
The Buffalo Bills are 3-3 against the spread this season. The total has gone Under in five of the Bills’ last seven games. Notably, Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against New England. The New England Patriots, meanwhile, are 1-5 ATS this year and 1-9 over their last 10 games. The total has gone Under in their previous five games. That’s important to remember when assessing the Bills vs Patriots head to head odds.
Allen Fueling Bills
The Buffalo Bills were the NFL’s biggest favorite in Week 6, yet they merely squeaked by the New York Giants 14-9. The Giants, a whopping 15-point underdog, were stopped on Buffalo’s 1-yard line on the final play of the game. Buffalo improved to 4-2 overall but dropped to 3-3 against the spread.
The Bills remain among the Super Bowl favorites, as they were in the preseason. They’re +900 to win Super Bowl LVIII, fourth on the board behind the San Francisco 49ers (+425), Kansas City Chiefs (+500) and Philadelphia Eagles (+750). Keep in mind, that Buffalo owns the best point differential (plus-84) in the AFC.
Whether the Bills can cash in on those odds will largely depend on Josh Allen. The two-time Pro Bowl quarterback is now +700 on the NFL MVP odds board, trailing only Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, +400 co-favorites. Allen leads the league with a 71.7% completion rate and is third with 13 touchdown passes. The Bills rank near the top of the NFL in several offensive categories, including fifth in yards per game (374.8) and third in points per game (28.8).
Although Allen hurt his shoulder against New York, he’s not believed to be dealing with a serious injury. Nevertheless, his status is worth monitoring when analyzing the Bills vs Patriots head to head odds.
Notably, the Bills are also +140 to win the AFC East and +450 to win the conference.
Punchless Patriots Reeling
How much worse can it get for the New England Patriots? New England is now in last place in the AFC East after losing 21-17 to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 6. A 3-point underdog, the Patriots fell behind 13-3 at halftime and failed to cover the spread for the fifth time this season. Their 16.7% cover rate is the second-worst in the NFL this year.
New England’s most significant issue continues to be the underperformance of Mac Jones. The former first-rounder has thrown seven interceptions in six games, creating more questions about his future at quarterback for New England. The Patriots have been woeful offensively under his watch, ranking 31st in the NFL in scoring (12 points per game) and 27th in yards per game (282.7).
Without a proven alternative to Jones — undrafted rookie Malik Cunningham is currently the backup — it’s hard to see the Patriots’ fortunes improving anytime soon on the NFL season schedule. Projected for 7.5 regular-season wins, New England is already a +10000 longshot to win the AFC East and +2000 to make the playoffs.
It also doesn’t help that New England has lost its top two playmakers on defense — linebacker Matthew Judon and rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez — to significant injuries. This is a situation to avoid.
Handicapping the Game
This is a large number for a divisional rivalry. That said, it’s hard to have any trust in New England at the moment. With Jones struggling, the Patriots seem to be headed for a top 10 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, if not top 5.
Assuming Allen is healthy, he shouldn’t have many issues against a banged-up Patriots defense. This is a potential bounce-back spot after his inconsistent showing versus the Giants.
Look for Buffalo to win comfortably on the road, maybe even by double digits.
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