Dolphins vs Commanders Free Pick: A Crazy Bet Against the Grain
No, We Are Not Touting the Obvious Here
The Public is Heavy Against Washington
For obvious reasons, no one is betting on the Washington Commanders against the Miami Dolphins even at +9.5. Washington is a dumpster fire with coaches getting canned and a 1-5 record in its last six NFL games. The Dolphins are a superpower on offense and typically run over bum teams. So this should be a Dolphins blowout, right? We’re betting against that with our Dolphins vs Commanders free pick. And here’s why.
Dolphins vs Commanders 
Day/Time:
Location: FedEx Field, Landover, MD
Records: Dolphins (8-3)/Commanders (4-8)
Streaming: FOX
Dolphins and ‘Over’ Get the Love
Roughly over 70% and 90% of tickets and money are going to the Miami Dolphins on this matchup per the NFL odds this week. Miami is an obvious NFL pick given that all eight of this team’s wins have come against teams with losing records and most of it have come by double figures.
The total has also moved from its lookahead line of 48.5 points to 50 points with the ‘over’ being juiced. Totals have gone over in five of Miami’s seven wins against the spread (ATS). As for Washington, the total has trended the same way in five of its eight games as an underdog.
Can Dolphins Run Away Despite Turnovers?
What most fans know: the Dolphins lead the NFL in total yards (430.4 per game) and have the second-most points (30.8). What most fans don’t know: the Dolphins are -5 in turnover differential. In fact, Miami has played five games where it lost the turnover battle. It still went 4-1 in these games. But when you’re expecting Miami to win by 10+ points on the NFL scores and odds, it’s scary.
The Dolphins have turned the ball over multiple times in six games. And this isn’t as big of an issue when you consider that Miami’s 15.2% turnover rate is still the sixth-best ratio in the league.
Still, giving opponents extra possessions is a red flag, especially when its defense is ranked 23rd in scoring (22.8 points) and 28th in red zone scoring percentage (64.7%). This could be a recipe for a bad beat.
Miami is going against Washington, which gets the bulk of its points at home in the fourth quarter; eight of its 18.6 points. Unless Miami can go up 20+ points by the fourth quarter, something that has only happened against Denver, this is a shaky bet.
Nowhere To Go But Up For Woeful Washington ‘D’
It’s hard to imagine how Washington’s already terrible defense can get worse. This NFL team is last in scoring (29.2) and is not great at forcing turnovers: just one in its last four games. On top of that, the Commanders are -9 in turnover differential and are just 1-4 at home (0-4-1 ATS). It seems too easy to fade it as a Dolphins vs Commanders free pick.
But there are a few key stats that help in Washington potentially covering here. The first is its ability to stop teams in the red zone. Washington allows a 55.6% red zone conversion rate, which is not elite, but not as miserable as a 32nd-ranked defense would suggest.
Next, the Commanders do decently against the run. Washington has allowed a team to rush for 120+ yards only four times. It held Philadelphia to a total of 153 in its two NFL games. The Eagles average 145.9 if we exclude these games. And this is not a bad stat considering Washington tends to face a deficit.
Washington does have an atrocious passing defense. It has given up the most passing touchdowns (28) and the second-most net yards per passing attempt (6.9). But as long as this team can reduce Miami’s potent rushing attack, even if just a fraction, it can hold the Dolphins to within 10 points.
Commanders Stay Steady at Home
It’s all doom and gloom in Landover right now. But since Ron Rivera took over head coaching duties in Washington, the Commanders are an even 8-8-3 ATS as a home underdog (since 2020). The total has also gone under 68.4% of the time in these situations (6-13-0).
And the Pick is…
The direction of our Dolphins vs Commanders free pick is south – the total to go under 50 points. This edges Washington +9.5 by a hair as the Commanders do give up a whopping 11.2 points in the fourth quarter. But given Washington’s “okay” rushing defense, and Miami’s turnover issues, we like the Commanders to keep the scoring low enough. Bet: Dolphins, Commanders Under 50 (-110).
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