AFC Playoff Shift: 2023-24 NFL Season’s New Contenders Emerge
Bills, Bengals, and Chargers are Likely Out; But Who’s In?
AFC Contenders Now Face Steep Postseason Odds
Almost every NFL season, three or four new teams make the playoffs. That means that a handful of contenders will need to get knocked out, and we’re seeing that in the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, and Los Angeles Chargers, three of the top AFC teams based on the Super Bowl odds. The 2023-24 NFL playoff odds now heavily expect all teams to miss the postseason. But if they’re out, then who is in?
What Went Wrong For These Contenders?
For Buffalo and Cincinnati, it can be summarized with one word: NFL injuries. Buffalo was ravaged on defense, namely on the secondary, while Cincinnati had to deal with an injured quarterback. Buffalo and Cincinnati opened with 2023-24 NFL Playoff odds at -250 and -300, respectively. Now, their lines have widened to +475 and +2000. The implied probabilities indicate a 17.5% and 4.8% chance they make it.
While these teams still have enough talent to find a way back to the postseason, they have two of the most challenging remaining schedules. The Bengals’ remaining six games are against teams currently in a playoff spot, including Kansas City and Jacksonville. Meanwhile, three of Buffalo’s last five games are against teams with an 8-3 record.
The Bills also just fired Ken Dorsey, their old offensive coordinator. While Josh Allen continues to put up All-Pro stats, Buffalo is 6-6 and 4-8-0 against the NFL point spreads (ATS). The Bengals are no better at 4-6-1 ATS.
As for the Chargers, they don’t have injuries to make excuses for. Quarterback Justin Herbert is also playing at a Pro Bowl level. But a defense ranked 24th in scoring and last in total yards is to be blamed. It is amazing that Brandon Staley still has a job with the Chargers, now facing a three-game losing streak and a 4-7 record.
Who’s In? It’s a Rat Race For Five Other Teams
Baltimore, Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Miami will all likely make the postseason. Unless you’re “whaling,” there is no point betting on their lines. And while they hold down the top four spots in the AFC, three wild card spots are up for grabs on the NFL standings. Five teams, in particular, have the shortest odds (with implied probabilities):
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4): -230 (69.7%)
Cleveland Browns (7-4): OTB
Houston Texans (6-5): -115 (53.5%)
Indianapolis Colts (6-5): +100 (50%)
Denver Broncos (6-5): +120 (45.5%)
Pittsburgh and Denver have the easiest remaining NCAAF schedule on paper. But they’re also the two teams in the hunt with negative point differentials. In a way, they’re the opposite of Buffalo, as they find ways to win close games: a combined 11-3 record in one-score outcomes.
The Steelers still have to face Indianapolis and Denver meets Houston, two surprising AFC South outfits. Who’d have thought that we’d have three AFC South teams but only one AFC East team in the playoff race? That’s why the NFL is unpredictable.
Three of Houston’s remaining six games are against teams on this list: Cleveland, Denver, and Indianapolis. Its Week 18 match against Indianapolis could determine who gets into the playoffs.
The Browns are also a curious case here, hence why their 2023-24 NFL Playoff odds are off the board. The team has also been riddled with injuries and is without its quarterback, star running back, and best cornerback. Kevin Stefanski could just win his second Coach of the Year award if he can get this team to the postseason despite this adversity.
The NFC South Remains a Quandary
Just like last season, the NFC South remains a crapshoot as far as which teams win the division and make the playoffs. Tampa Bay won last season with an 8-9 record. Now, the Falcons are in a precarious “lead” with a 5-6 record and a tiebreaker over New Orleans. Tampa Bay, despite having lost six of its last seven games, is still in the running (4-7). Carolina is the only team we can confidently fork at 1-10.
None of the trio of Atlanta, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay give us much faith. They’ll all be bunched together in the lower half of the NFL power rankings. But here are their records and odds if you’d like to roll the dice:
Atlanta Falcons (5-6): -120 (54.5%)
New Orleans Saints (5-6): -115 (53.5%)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7): +300 (25%)
Of this trio, New Orleans has the hardest schedule as it still has to face Detroit. Atlanta has the most favorable matchups as Indianapolis is the only winning team it has to play.
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