NFL Teams Record Odds: A Tier System of All 32 Teams for 2023
Early Predictions for Winning and Losing Teams
Over Half the League Favored to Have Winning Records
If the NFL odds were to be entirely accurate, 18 of the 32 NFL teams will post winning records this 2023. Thanks to the 17-game schedule, a team would need a tie to post an even record. The NFL teams’ record odds is also a good way to measure the rankings of each team heading to the 2023 season. So an early tier list should set apart winners from losers.
The Elite Tier: Double Digits and Then Some
These are the Super Bowl contenders of the NFL or at the least, a team that flirts with the idea. Most of these teams are not only expected to have winning records but to post double-digit wins. Bettors would need to shed serious cheddar loot to get a decent return for these teams:
- Kansas City Chiefs -1000
- Philadelphia Eagles -750
- Cincinnati Bengal -550
- Buffalo Bills -500
- San Francisco 49ers -450
- Baltimore Ravens -300
The Chiefs are going to post a winning record or it may be a sign of the Apocalypse. Even if Patrick Mahomes went down with an injury, Andy Reid will find a way to get this team nine wins. Philadelphia has a harder schedule this season but the team is mostly intact.
Cincinnati, Buffalo, and San Francisco are all well-coached outfits with elite quarterbacks in the AFC pair’s case. Buffalo does have a the third-most difficult schedule, however. Meanwhile, the 49ers need to stay healthy as it has been ravaged by injuries in 2018 and 2020.
Speaking of injuries, the Ravens appear shaky here. Lamar Jackson has played just 12 games in each of the last two seasons. Baltimore has a high ceiling but also a low floor as far as the NFL teams’ record odds.
Upper Class Tier: Could Join the Elite But…
These teams just missed out on being part of the elite tier. Namely. because they may have a few flaws or their schedule is a bit harder. Still, with short odds, these teams should finish with nine wins or more. But it won’t be as surprising if a few fall short:
- Dallas Cowboys -300
- Los Angeles Chargers -300
- Jacksonville Jaguars -250
- New Orleans Saints -225
- Detroit Lions -200
Dallas and the Chargers have the same odds as Baltimore, but they each have 9.5-win totals versus Baltimore’s 10. The Cowboys posted 12 wins in each of their last two seasons and this uber-talented got better with big acquisitions. The Chargers tend to be snakebitten but do have a new play caller to improve the offense.
Jacksonville and Detroit are upstart teams while the Saints added Derek Carr to bolster its weakest position. All three play relatively easy schedules, especially the Saints who have the easiest based on strength of schedule. Detroit went 8-2 in its final 10 games in 2022 including going 5-0 against its division.
Plebeian Tier: Average Teams That Straddle the Fence
Now these “average” teams in the NFL could have plenty of variables and are close to the 50/50 or 60/40 range in terms of odds. On one hand, some could be one of the best at beating NFL spreads like the Lions last season. Or they could be really bad like Indianapolis:
- Miami Dolphins -175
- Minnesota Vikings -175
- New York Jets -165
- Las Vegas Raiders -165
- Cleveland Browns -140
- Pittsburgh Steelers -125
- Seattle Seahawks -125
- Denver Broncos -115
Of the most notable teams here, Denver is at a pick’em because this team defines “boom or bust”. It was horrible in 2022 but has Sean Payton as the new coach.
The Dolphins and Vikings were both playoff teams last year. But Miami has the second-hardest schedule and will twice face the Jets, a team that acquired four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers. The Vikings are also expected to regress as it finished with a negative point differential despite going 13-4 last season.
Low Class Tier: Suspect Teams Have Plenty to Prove
Not much separates the teams here from the “plebian tier”. In fact, several of these teams may be more valuable from a betting standpoint. But too many of them have glaring weaknesses that may scare off bettors.
- Atlanta Falcons +115
- Chicago Bears +160
- Green Bay Packers +160
- Carolina Panthers +175
- New England Patriots +190
- New York Giants +190
- Tennessee Titans +200
A pair of NFC South teams in Atlanta and Carolina could be worth betting. The Falcons added a topnotch rookie running back and either could be the NFL rushing leaders. Carolina has quarterback messiah Bryce Young and a new better head coach. They play in the NFC South with the Saints and have winnable schedules.
Chicago is another popular underdog team. Justin Fields looks like a future star at QB and the team did a lot to build around him. It helps that the Bears play the 28th-ranked schedule.
Poverty Tier: ‘Nuff Said
These teams are widely expected to not only have losing records but be in the running for the USC star Caleb Williams, the consensus top pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. If any of these teams post a winning record, a Nostradamus could make good coin betting these NFL teams’ record odds:
- Los Angeles Rams +250
- Indianapolis Colts +250
- Washington Commanders +275
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +300
- Houston Texans +325
- Arizona Cardinals +1000
