NFL Week 13: Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys Free Pick
Cowboys 32-22-1 on Thanksgiving Day, Turkey Revenge Spot Against Washington
The Washington Commanders (4-7) head to Arlington, Texas to face the Dallas Cowboys (7-3 ), to take on the ‘Boys for the 11th time on Thanksgiving Day. Overall Dallas has had the best of Washington with a 2-8 record on turkey day, but the last time they played in 2020, it was the Commanders who shredded Dallas 41-16. Current NFL odds this week show the Cowboys as an 11-point favorite with a total of 49. Kick-off is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET / 1:30 p.m. PT and can be seen on CBS.
Commanders vs Cowboys 
Day/Time:
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Streaming: CBS
Washington Looks to Take Command Early
The one aspect that Washington must avoid Thursday, is to play from behind. A field goal is one thing but a couple of quick Cowboy scores early is quite another. The Commanders are 4-3 ATS when playing a Thursday game in November, 3-2 ATS against the Cowboys.
One of the reasons why Washington is drowning in the deep end this NFL season is because of a lack of running game to start. Washington is 26th in the NFL with just 95.7 yards on the ground. With six games left, Brian Robinson is their leading rusher with just 558 yards. It’s not like they can’t run the ball but they get behind early and seem to lean on the passing game, making it important to not play catch-up.
Their NFL offensive ranking has them at 12th in the NFL in total offense, but much of that is because they throw the ball over 40 times a game. Once they become balanced, there are some pieces that can help them win. We continue our Commanders vs Cowboys free pick preview by turning the spotlight over to America’s Team.
Dallas Defense Continues To Get Better
The Cowboys’ defense doesn’t have any cute nicknames like “Doomsday” yet, but if they continue to give up barely 250 yards per game, someone should come up with something catchy.
Right now you could make an argument for two Cowboy players being the defensive player of the year between LB Micah Parsons and CB DaRon Bland. Parsons has just 20 tackles this season, but 10 of them are sacks. Bland has six picks in 10 games, 4 of which were returned for scores.
Their presence is a major reason why the Cowboys have allowed 4.9 yards per play (3rd) and just 157 passing yards per game (2nd). Dallas is on track to produce the third straight winning season for bettors with a 31-16 ATS record in that span (+12.57 units).
As a favorite, the Cowboys have covered 25 of their last 35 pro football games, and 14 of 20 at home. Despite their straight-up record on Thanksgiving, Dallas has failed to cover four straight games and 10-13 ATS when playing on a Thursday in November. We conclude our Commanders vs Cowboys free pick preview with a look at injuries and betting numbers.
Injuries and Numbers To Take Into Account
For Washington, LB De’Jon Harris is listed as questionable as he deals with a quad injury. Emmanuel Forbes is questionable while he nurses an elbow injury.
For Dallas, CeeDee Lamb is battling an ankle injury and is listed as questionable. S Jayron Kearse and RB Rico Dowdle are also questionable. Of course, Dallas will be without the services of often-injured LB Leighton Vander Esch, who is out for the season.
As an 11-point underdog, Washington is 2-1 ATS and 5-2 ATS as a dog of 10.5 points to 11.5 points. In their history, when the Commanders received 10 or more points, the franchise has covered 13 of their last 20 games, and 10 of 16 on the road.
Dallas is just 1-4 ATS when favored by exactly 11 points, 2-6 ATS when favored by -10.5 to 11.5, and 1-12 ATS when favored by 10 or more (10-8 at home). We conclude our Commanders vs Cowboys free pick preview with our official recommendation.
Washington To Skin The Books
We see that 56% of the money is coming in on Washington, but 60% of the tickets are on the Cowboys. It looks like this is going to be a pros vs. joes holiday, but we think the sharps have it right. It’s likely Washington will not make the postseason, making this their biggest game to date.
It’s a chance to go up against one the best in the conference, an NFL team that still has a loss to the Arizona Cardinals on their resume’. There have been four times since 2007 when Dallas has been a double-digit favorite against Washington, failing to cover three times.
Look for Washington to morph into a balanced offense against a Dallas team that may be looking ahead to a stretch of games that feature Seattle, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Miami, and Detroit. Take the Commanders +11 as our NFL pick of the week, and have a very Happy Thanksgiving.
For NFL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
