NFL Week 6 Odds: Looking For Value in Totals
Unders Still Maintain Healthy Lead This Season
Five weeks of the 2023 NFL season are in the books. Some trends have developed during the new season. But one of the most evident ones is the tendency of games to fall under the total. So far this season, totals are 34-44, and games with a total of 46 or higher are 8-13 (38.1%). Several over/unders look promising against the NFL Week 6 odds.
Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons
Day/Time:
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Line: Atlanta -2.5 (-115)
Total: 42.5
Streaming: CBS
The Washington Commanders visit the Atlanta Falcons for an early game on Sunday, where the NFL point spreads have the Falcons -2.5 (-115), and the total is 42.5. The Commanders have gone 3-2 in totals so far this season, while the Falcons are 1-4. The Sagarin NFL power rankings have Atlanta No. 21 and Washington is down to No. 30.
Washington’s early season struggles are pretty easy to pinpoint. A defense that’s allowing 32.0 points per game isn’t going to cut it in the NFL. The Commanders aren’t allowing a ton of yards, but they’re certainly allowing plenty of points. An offense that is -5 in turnovers already this season doesn’t make things any easier for the defense. Washington is allowing 133.6 yards and 4.8 yards per carry on the ground. The Commanders are allowing a lower percentage of completed passes than opponents average, but allowing more yards than teams average when they do complete passes.
The Commanders are averaging 21.8 points per game. But their opponents have allowed 26.3 points per game. Washington averages 91.0 yards per game on the ground, but 4.5 yards per carry. The Commanders have hesitated to stick with the ground game, although it works well. Washington is averaging 232.8 passing yards per game.
The Falcons are averaging 16.6 points per game against teams that allow 22.6 points. The Falcons run the ball reasonably well, gaining 121.6 yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry. Atlanta’s passing game isn’t too impressive, with the Falcons electing to throw high-percentage shorter passes.
The Falcons have played pretty well on defense, allowing 19.2 points per game. Atlanta allows 3.8 yards per carry, which is what their opponents average offensively, and are a little better than average against the pass.
Betting the Game
The Commanders are coming off a Thursday game and have a few extra days to prepare for this one. Washington also falls into a decent over system that has gone 15-4 since the start of the 2001 season and involves underdogs who lost the previous Thursday as a home favorite. Since 2015, teams falling into this pattern have posted an 8-1 mark in totals. Will follow the system and take the over 42.5 in this one.
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
Day/Time:
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Line: Detroit -3.5 (Even)
Total: 43.5
Streaming: Live Sports Stream
The NFL Week 6 odds show the Detroit Lions as 3.5-point road favorites at even money with a total of 43.5. Those taking Tampa Bay +3.5 will be asked to lay -120. The current NFL scores show Detroit is averaging 29.6 points per game behind an offense that is gaining 141.0 yards on the ground and 243.7 yards through the air. The Lions’ opponents are allowing 21.9 points per game, so it’s not as though Detroit has played a collection of weak NFL teams. Detroit’s 384.4 yards of total offense are nearly 60 more than its opponents allow on the season.
Defensively, the Lions have been a little better than average, allowing 21.4 points per game to teams averaging 22.2 points. Detroit has been solid against the run, allowing 68.4 yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry. Detroit is pretty much an average defense against the pass, but do see nearly twice as many passing attempts as they do running plays.
The Buccaneers are averaging 21 points per game to teams allowing 23, so they’ve scored at a slightly lower clip than expected. Tampa Bay’s running game hasn’t done a whole lot, averaging just 87 yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry. That type of effort won’t cut it against Detroit’s run defense. The Bucs are pretty average in the passing department. But they’ll have to pick it up a little bit here.
Defensively, Tampa Bay has played well, allowing just 17 points per game. The Buccaneers have been good at forcing turnovers, although that’s something that can’t be counted on consistently. Tampa Bay has been a little better than average against the run and the pass. But the Bucs have done a good job of allowing yards, but not points. Teams are averaging one point for every 18.7 yards gained against Tampa Bay’s defense.
Betting the Game
With Detroit doing a good job of stopping the run, the Bucs are likely to throw the ball more than usual here. With the NFL Week 6 odds on the total at 43.5, that puts a bit of value on the over, which is the way to play this game.
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