The Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints will square off Sunday (1 p.m. ET) at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Much of the betting money has been trending toward the Colts, who have gone from 5.5-point underdogs to even money on the NFL point spread. The total has also moved a bit, increasing from 40 to 43.5 (-110 Over, -110 Under).
Which football team has the edge? Read on as we dive into the odds in our Saints vs Colts betting matchup preview.
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium; Indianapolis
The New Orleans Saints are 1-4 against the spread in their last five football games and 1-5-1 on the season. The total has gone Under in 12 of the Saints’ last 13 games. The Indianapolis Colts are 4-3 ATS, including 4-2 over their last six games. The total has gone Over in seven of the Colts’ previous nine games. That’s important to remember when assessing the odds in our Saints vs Colts betting matchup.
Minshew Show Continues
With rookie first-rounder Anthony Richardson (shoulder) sidelined on the NFL injury report for the remainder of the season, Gardner Minshew is cemented as Indianapolis’ starting quarterback. After throwing three interceptions against Jacksonville in Week 6, Minshew bounced back with a solid performance (15 of 23, 305 yards, four total TD) versus Cleveland. Still, it wasn’t enough to save the Colts from a second straight loss, 39-38.
While the Colts covered the 3.5-point spread, they dropped to 3-4 on the season per NFL scores. They’re now third in the AFC South, two games behind Jacksonville.
Defense has been a concern for Indianapolis. The Colts have allowed 30-plus points in back-to-back games and rank 22nd in total defense (351.3 yards allowed per game). Even if that improves, the Colts still have glaring deficiencies on the other side of the ball.
Zack Moss, the NFL’s second-leading rusher with 523 yards (4.6 yards per carry), didn’t practice Wednesday with elbow and hip injuries and is questionable for Sunday. Jonathan Taylor will likely get a bigger workload if he can’t go. Taylor, a former All-Pro, ran for 75 yards in the loss to Cleveland, his most since returning Oct. 8 from a lengthy contract holdout.
Notably, the Colts are now a +1200 longshot to win the AFC South and +450 to make the playoffs.
Saints Trending Down
The New Orleans Saints are coming off a 31-24 defeat to the Jaguars on Oct. 19, their second straight loss and fourth in the last five games. It was also the Saints’ second straight loss when favored, this time by 2.5 points.
The Saints are now 3-4 but still trail the first-place Falcons by only a game in the NFC South. As such, they’re +200 to win the division and -115 to make the NFL playoffs.
Can they cash in on those odds? That’ll likely depend on the growth of their offense, which has largely underwhelmed behind quarterback Derek Carr. The four-time Pro Bowler, signed to a blockbuster four-year deal in March, has only six touchdown passes in his first seven games with New Orleans. Although the Saints rank near the middle of the pack in yardage (326.0 per game), they’re averaging just 19.0 points.
Complicating matters, New Orleans is now dealing with issues surrounding leading receiver Chris Olave. Olave, who’s caught a team-high 39 passes for 471 yards, was arrested Monday for speeding and reckless driving. Despite that, head coach Dennis Allen insinuated that Olave will likely play Week 8.
The Saints have been far superior on the other side of the ball, ranking fourth in the NFL in total defense. They’re allowing only 285.7 yards and 18.1 points per game. But they gave up a season-high in points to Jacksonville. Keep that in mind when analyzing the Saints vs Colts betting matchup odds.
Handicapping the Game
The Colts may be flawed, but they’ve been competitive despite Richardson’s injury. The running game is strong, ranked ninth in the NFL (124 yards per game). On top of that, they have one of the better backups in the NFL in Minshew. Although their ceiling is still limited, the Colts can generate consistent offense. Look no further than last week, when they hung 38 points on the NFL’s No. 1 defense, albeit in a losing effort.
They still have enough talent to outlast the Saints, who clearly are scuffling with Carr. Last week was just the second time this NFL season the Saints scored more than 20 points.