Super Bowl LVIII Betting: Betting Against The Public
74% of The Money is On KC Along With 70% of The Tickets
The NFL Super Bowl Fan Fest will take over the Mandalay Convention Center until Saturday and then the stage is set for the biggest game to ever take place in the City of Las Vegas. We could write a very thick book about the history that has led this jewel in the desert from being the perceived enemy of the NFL because of their hypocritical stance on wagering to practically being bedfellows in a matter of years.
That’s for another time but today we’re going to take a break from Super Bowl bets to focus on the success rate of the betting public during the NFL regular season, followed by a look at the success of bettors success rate when it comes to the postseason and Super Bowl.
Betting Public Regular Season Results
We could write a very long essay breaking down the successes and failures of the betting public throughout the season, so let’s start it off with simple results. After pouring over this year’s NFL scores we’ve found that favorites were the winners overall with a record of 139-124 (52.85%) good for a small profit of 1.68 units. It was the first time since the 2017-18 season that the favorites won more than they lost.
Coming into the year, favorites were just 586-696-28 (45.71%). A note to take into next year, in the 21 years of data that we’re pulling from, favorites have never had back-to-back seasons of finishing in the black. The difference between home and road teams covering came down to one game with road teams coming out of this season with a 130-129–9 record. It was the sixth straight where road NFL teams finished above .500 ATS, giving bettors 9.00 units of profit (793-731-36) since 2018-19.
That brings us to how well bettors did against the number in 2023-24. The result was pretty good for the public against the NFL pointspread. When teams received 50.1% or more of the betting dollars, the record was 134-118 (53.18%) +3.43 units. It was the first season since 2019-20 that bettors got the best of the books.
It was the third most profitable year since we started keeping track in 2016-17. Since 2019, the betting public is just 622-642 (49.21%).
Books Get Postseason Revenge
Bookmakers gave the betting public a false sense of success during the NFL regular season, but then sent them back to reality with a resounding defeat of the public with seven of the 11 playoff games this season going the way of the books.
The reason for this was the unpredictability of the majority of games. Of the six postseason games where one team received between 50.1 and 59.9% of the dollars wagered, five went the way of the books. 60-60.9 was 2-2, still a profit for the books.
Just one game went the way of the player when receiving more than 70% of the money and that was when the Green Bay Packers covered as a 7-point dog against the Dallas Cowboys in their opening 48-32 win. Sportsbooks winning in the postseason isn’t a new concept that’s where they do their best work with 47 of the last 79 playoff games (60%) falling in favor of the books.
We know how the public has done in the regular season and postseason, but let’s break it down further with a specific focus on Super Bowl bets.
Super Bowl Bettors Have An Edge…Barely
Over the last seven Super Bowls, the team receiving the higher percentage of money wagered is 4-3 ATS, but that gap has been closed after the public took a nosedive on the last two Super Bowls after winning four straight.
Teams gaining more than 70% of the money are 1-1 ATS but last time the public was so decided on who they thought would cover, the Los Angeles Rams took down the Cincinnati Bengals, 23-20, with 74% of the money coming in on the Rams at a 4.5-point favorite.
As mentioned earlier, the Chiefs are receiving 74% of the money. That does it for our historical look at Super Bowl bets, we know most of you know who you’re going to put your money behind, so back to studying your Super Bowl prop betting sheet.
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