Serie A Matchday 32 Odds & Preview: Juve Point Deduction
Napoli Can Seal Title on Matchday 32
Juve Point Deduction Temporarily Overturned
Last week, the Italian Olympic Committee court overturned Juventus’ 15-point deduction for allegedly breaking financial rules. The Italian FA appeals court will make a final decision soon, but Juve are back in the top four for now. With Juventus back near the top of the table, the race for the Champions League has gotten even tighter. Third-placed Juventus and seventh-placed Atalanta are just seven points apart with seven matches to play. Meanwhile, Napoli are closing in on their first Scudetto for 33 years. If Napoli defeat Salernitana this weekend and Lazio lose or draw at Inter, the Partenopei will clinch the Serie A title. We’ll take a look at the Serie A Matchday 32 odds in what could prove to be a critical weekend.
Games of the Week
Roma vs AC Milan
Date, time:
While Roma dropped out of the top four with a 3-1 loss to Atalanta on Monday, AC Milan re-entered the Champions League places. Rafael Leao, last season’s Serie A Player of the Year, scored a double in a 2-0 win over Lecce. Stopping Leao will be high on Jose Mourinho’s list of priorities come this weekend.
Roma are itching to break a six-game winless streak vs. AC Milan. With the two teams level on points, whichever team wins this important match will be higher in the Serie A standings.
The latest odds list this one as a pick’em. When these two teams met back in January, it finished in a 2-2 draw. Roma were down 2-0 with just minutes to play but mounted an impressive comeback at the San Siro. Milan had won the three previous meetings and both teams have scored in the last five matches of the series.
Unsurprisingly, over two goals come in at -120 odds for Saturday’s match. At the same time, Roma pk sits at -115 and AC Milan pk at -105. The moneylines are tight for the match, as anything could happen.
Roma are slight +175 favorites, while Milan show +185 odds and a draw is priced at +200. Milan are 6-5-5 away from home this season but have won just three of their nine Serie A road matches in 2023.
Milan did manage to pick up a 1-1 draw at Napoli last week, which was enough to see the Rossoneri through to the Champions League Semifinal.
AC Milan could also benefit from some defensive injuries for Roma. Chris Smalling will be out for the next few weeks and Diego Llorente is doubtful. Olivier Giroud missed Milan’s match vs. Lecce over the weekend as well and is day-to-day. If he can’t suit up, Ante Rebic could get another start up top. Regardless, this is a critical match for both teams in their UCL pursuit.
Inter Milan vs Lazio
Date, time:
Inter Milan vs. Lazio is another match with big implications for the Serie A table. Lazio enter Matchday 32 in second place, on 61 points, but they fell 1-0 to Torino on Saturday. Inter are seven points behind Lazio, in sixth, and got a 3-0 win at Empoli on Sunday.
Romelu Lukaku found his form and scored a brace. The Nerazzurri also advanced to the Champions League semifinal last week, where they’ll take on rivals AC Milan.
Inter drew 3-3 with Benfica last week and advance with a 5-3 aggregate win. With six goals in their last two matches, Inter are favored over visitors Lazio on Sunday.
The Serie A Matchday 32 odds price Inter as 0.5-goal favorites at -125 ATS and moneyline odds. Simone Inzaghi’s side certainly can’t afford to lose as they’re already two points outside of the top four.
Prior to Lazio’s loss last weekend, the Biancocelesti were on an eight-game unbeaten run in Serie A. With striker Ciro Immobile back from injuries he sustained in a car crash, Lazio +0.5 shows +105 odds.
Lazio have a clean injury report for the time being but are still +365 underdogs here. Before this match, Inter take on Juventus on Wednesday in a match which will decide who advances to the Coppa Italia final.
With that in mind, bettors should monitor any new injuries that could arise on Wednesday. Milan Skriniar will definitely be out for Inter on Sunday, though, as he had a recent spine surgery.
One of the Nerazzurri’s key defenders is out and this has been a high scoring fixture recently. Both teams have scored in the last six meetings but under 2.5 goals display -125 odds here. Lazio’s Ivan Provedel has kept a Serie A-leading 18 shutouts this season but Lazio last shut out Inter in 2019.
The Biancocelesti did win the reverse fixture 3-1, though. Lastly, a draw shows +265 odds for one of the games of the week.
Other Important Matches
Napoli vs Salernitana
Date, time:
Napoli put in a disappointing performance last week vs. AC Milan in the Champions League. With a 1-1 draw, they lost 2-1 on aggregate and are out of the competition. However, the Partenopei bounced back with a dramatic 1-0 win at Juventus and are now within sight of the Serie A title.
Juventus had a couple of goals ruled back by VAR but there was no need for a check on Giacomo Raspadori’s stoppage time volley.
Napoli have a solid shot to seal the Serie A title this weekend. Unfortunately, they can’t officially win the Scudetto until Sunday, when Lazio head to Inter.
The Serie A odds list Napoli as two-goal favorites for this match vs. fellow Campania side Salernitana. Since Salernitana earned promotion to Serie A in 2021, Napoli are 3-0 vs. their neighbors. Salernitana have made serious strides towards staying in Serie A in recent weeks. Incredibly, they’re on the longest active unbeaten run in the league, at eight matches. They broke a six-game draw streak on Saturday by smashing Sassuolo, 3-0. However, Salernitana haven’t won on the road since January.
Napoli -2 shows +120 odds here, while Salernitana -2 is listed at -140. Hosts Napoli are -435 moneyline favorites and Salernitana are +1200 underdogs. A draw also displays +550 odds for Saturday’s match, despite how frequently Salernitana have done so recently. Recently, Salernitana have picked up a point vs. both Milan clubs.
While Mario Rui and Matteo Politano look set to miss this one for Napoli, Salernitana have a couple players who are questionable. Defender Lorenzo Pirola scored vs. Sassuolo before being subbed off due to an injury. He and Federico Fazio are the two injured members of the Salernitana back line.
If Pirola misses time, Napoli could absolutely capitalize. They defeated Salernitana 2-0 in the reverse fixture and under three goals sit at -120 odds here as well. This has the potential to be one of the greatest weekends in Napoli history, so this one is well-worth paying attention to.
Bologna vs Juventus
Date, time:
Juventus felt hard-done by the referee’s decision to call back Angel di Maria’s goal vs. Napoli last weekend due to a foul in the build up. La Vecchia Signora later fell to Napoli, 1-0, as Giacomo Raspadori scored a volley.
Despite three consecutive Serie A losses, Juventus are in a solid position. Following the appeal of their 15-point deduction, third-placed Juve have a three-point cushion over fifth-placed Roma. On Sunday, Juventus will head to Bologna for an important Serie A match.
Juve are unbeaten in their last 22 matches vs. Bologna and the Serie A Matchday 32 odds price Juventus as 0.5-goal favorites. Massimiliano Allegri’s side sit at +120 ATS and moneyline odds, which corresponds to less than a 50 percent implied chance of victory.
That is curious, given Juventus have won 13 of their last 14 matches vs. Bologna. Juventus do take on Inter Milan on Wednesday, which could mean some tired legs come Sunday. BFC have been solid this season but unremarkable. They’re currently in eighth place and lost to relegation candidates Verona last Friday. They do have recent wins over both Atalanta and Inter Milan, though.
Bologna, on a five-game scoring streak, come in at -140 odds to cover the spread here. BFC joint-leading scorer Marko Arnautovic has missed the last few matches and Bologna sit at +240 moneyline odds. Midfielder Andrea Cambiaso has also missed a lot of time lately and is questionable for this one.
Bettors can find a draw at +230 odds as Juve look to avoid a fourth-straight league defeat. Only one of Juve’s last nine matches, in all competitions, has finished with three or more goals. However, over two goals display -135 odds here.
Follow us on Twitter
