Serie A Matchday 37 Odds, Preview: Juventus Deducted 10 Points
Inter Look to Seal UCL Berth After Coppa Italia Win
Juventus Deducted 10 Points
A month after their 15-point deduction was appealed, Juventus got deducted 10 points by the Italian Football Federation. Overnight, This sudden deduction caused Juve to plummet from second to seventh place in the standings, significantly altering the landscape of the race for European tournaments, including the prestigious Champions League. Lazio have already sealed a UCL berth, while Inter Milan and AC Milan round out the top four. If Coppa Italia winners enter can manage a draw or win vs. Atalanta on Saturday, they’ll seal a UCL spot. We’ll also examine the relegation race and some important Serie A Matchday 37 Odds.
Games of the Week
Fiorentina vs. AS Roma
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Fiorentina got an early lead in Wednesday’s Coppa Italia final vs. Inter Milan. However, two Lautaro Martinez goals sank the Viola. Fiorentina can only reach next season’s Europa League through June’s UEFA Europa Conference League final.
On Saturday, Fiorentina take on sixth-placed AS Roma, who haven’t won any of their last five Serie A matches. Jose Mourinho’s Roma are also in a European final, as they take on Sevilla in the Europa League final next Wednesday.
For Saturday’s match, hosts Fiorentina are +155 moneyline favorites in a pick’em. The Viola come in at -120 odds to cover, and AS Roma pk sits at even odds. AS Roma aren’t necessarily expected to break their five-game winless run and are +175 underdogs for the match.
Roma still have an outside shot of making the Champions League through the league but almost certainly need to win both of their remaining matches. Roma midfielder Bryan Cristante is first in the Serie A stats, with 106 tackles, but forward Paulo Dybala is questionable.
Dybala scored twice as Roma defeated Fiorentina earlier in the season. Roma have also won five of their last six games vs. Fiorentina. A draw shows +240 odds for this match, but it wouldn’t be an excellent result for Roma. The Giallorossi are just one point ahead of Juventus heading into this one. Roma have averaged just 0.8 goals per game in their last Serie A games, and under 2.5 goals come in at -140 odds for the match.
Inter Milan vs. Atalanta
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Inter Milan won their second trophy of the season as they beat Fiorentina 2-1 in the Coppa Italia final. The Nerazzurri can complete a treble by defeating Manchester City in June’s Champions League final. Inter can also seal UCL qualification by drawing with or beating Atalanta on Saturday when they meet in Serie A.
Atalanta have lost two of their last three matches but are just three points behind fourth-placed AC Milan with two games remaining.
The Serie A Matchday 37 Odds lists Inter Milan as -120 ATS and moneyline favorites. Lautaro Martinez has been on fire lately, with a double in the Coppa Italia final. He’s found the net eight times in his last eight games for Inter.
Inter have already beaten Atalanta twice this season, once in the Coppa Italia quarterfinal and once in Serie A. The Nerazzurri are also unbeaten in their last nine games vs. Atalanta. Five have finished in draws, and another comes in at +280 odds.
Atalanta are +½-goal underdogs and priced at even odds to cover the spread. Atalanta’s last win over Inter at the San Siro came in 2014. They’re +315 underdogs here but did manage to beat Verona 3-1 last weekend. Both teams have scored many goals lately as over 2.5 goals display -135 odds.
Juventus vs. AC Milan
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It looked like Juventus may be in the clear when they successfully appealed a 15-point deduction for false accounting in April. However, they discovered they’d be deducted ten points by the Italian Football Federation shortly before Monday’s match at Empoli.
Juve dropped from second place to seventh with the deduction and fell 4-1 to Empoli in one of the more shocking recent Serie A scores. It’s doubtful that Juventus will qualify for next season’s Champions League. They’re five points behind fourth-place AC Milan with two games to go.
If Juve can win over the Rossoneri on Sunday, there’s a slim chance they can defy the odds and finish in the top four.
They can’t afford to lose here with Atalanta also hot on AC Milan’s heels, they can’t afford to lose here. However, Juventus are favorites in this pick’em. La Vecchia Signora show -140 odds to cover, while AC Milan pk stands at +120 odds. After crashing out of the Champions League to rivals Inter Milan last week, AC Milan got a 5-1 win over Sampdoria.
The five-goal outburst seemed to come out of nowhere, as Milan tallied just five goals in their five previous games. Olivier Giroud scored a hat trick in the match, but it’s still Rafael Leao, who’s Milan’s leading scorer for the season. AC Milan also got a 2-0 win in the reverse fixture but are +205 underdogs.
Massimiliano Allegri’s Juve are +130 home favorites but are winless in their last four matches vs. AC Milan. In those four matches, Juve have tallied just one goal. 13-3-2, they do have the league’s joint-best home record in 2022-23 at though.
A draw would be enough for AC Milan to remain in fourth place, no matter Atalanta’s result vs. Inter. A deadlock displays +250 odds here in what’s expected to be a low-scoring contest. Under 2½ goals show -125 odds for Sunday’s match.
Relegation Fight
Sampdoria and Cremonese are certainly going down to Serie B. Meanwhile, three teams are fighting tooth and nail for survival. Hellas Verona currently occupy 18th place, the last relegation spot but are just one point behind Spezia. Meanwhile, 16th-placed Lecce are just two points ahead of Spezia. Unlike most other leagues, if two of these teams end up level on points the first tiebreaker is head-to-head points. Spezia hold a tiebreaker over Verona, Verona have beaten Lecce twice this season, and Spezia and Lecce drew twice.
This weekend, Hellas Verona take on an Empoli side that just beat Juventus 4-1. The Serie A Matchday 37 Odds price Verona as -145 ATS and moneyline favorites for the match, though. Hellas have lost their last two matches and been outscored 11-3 over their last five games.
A draw wouldn’t be enough to take them outside the relegation zone, but one sits at +290 odds. Empoli +½ displays +125 odds as the visitors are on a four-match unbeaten run. They’ve also won three of their last four but are +410 underdogs.
Spezia have picked up four points in their last two games to escape the relegation zone and host Torino on Saturday. In this pick’em, Spezia come in at -140 odds to cover and +140 odds to win the match. Spezia did win the reverse fixture 1-0 as M’Bala Nzola converted a penalty.
Torino, unbeaten in their last four games, are +205 moneyline favorites. Torino pk also stands at +120 odds for this one.
Lecce can do wonders for their survival chances with a win over Monza on Sunday. It certainly won’t be easy, though, as Monza are unbeaten in their last eight games. During that stretch, they’ve beaten both Inter Milan and champions Napoli.
In this pick’em, Monza pk sits at -115 odds and Lecce pk comes in at -105. Lecce’s road matches have been relatively low scoring this season, averaging just two goals per game. Still, over two goals show -135 odds for the match. The three-way moneyline is Monza +170, Lecce +175, Draw +220.
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