Napoli, Lazio, Inter, AC Milan Seal UCL Spots
Serie A’s four Champions League participants for the 2023-24 season have been determined ahead of the season’s final day. Lazio, Inter Milan, and AC Milan will join champions Napoli in Europe’s elite club competition. Atalanta, Roma, and Juventus will also play in European competitions. If Roma win Wednesday’s Europa League final vs. Sevilla, they’ll be the fifth Serie A team in the UCL. The last day will determine who seals Europa League berths and which team represents Serie A in the European Tournaments Conference League. At the same time, one of Verona and Spezia will go down to Serie B. We’ll look at the Serie A Matchday 38 odds from a determinative final day.
Games of the Week
Atalanta enter the final Matchday in fifth place in the Serie A standings. If that holds, they’ll secure a place in the 2023-24 Europa League after missing out on European competition entirely this season. They’ve lost three of their last four matches heading into Sunday’s game vs. Monza but may need a win here.
In the reverse fixture, La Dea did pick up a 2-0 win over Monza, but that was back in September. Since starting the Serie A season 0-5, Monza have impressively gone 14-10-8. Meanwhile, Atalanta started the season 7-3-0 but have compiled just an 11-4-12 record since.
Here, the odds price Atalanta as one-goal favorites. They display -115 odds to cover the spread and -185 odds to get a win at the Gewiss Stadium. Their home record has been disappointing this season, at 9-3-6. Ademola Lookman is one of the top five goal scorers in the league this season, though, with 13 goals. Before Monza’s 1-0 loss to Lecce last weekend, they were on an eight-game unbeaten run.
Monza can’t finish in a European place or be relegated, so they’re just playing for their first-ever top-half Serie A finish on Sunday.
Visitors, Monza show -105 odds to cover the one-goal spread and win or draw the match. They’re also +445 underdogs in their second-ever Serie A match vs. Atalanta. While Atalanta have failed to score in two of their last four games, Monza have scored in eight of their previous nine.
Over three goals come in at -115 odds here, as only Napoli and Inter have scored more goals than Atalanta this season. A draw stands at +355 odds here, but Atalanta will only be thinking about getting all three points.
Udinese spent time in the Serie A top four this season but have been highly disappointing since 2023 started. They’ve won just five of their last 29 Serie A matches and are on a three-game losing streak heading into the final day.
The decision which handed Juventus a 10-point ban was demoralizing for the club, and they’ve also lost their last two games. At the very least, Juventus will be playing in European competition next season. Sixth-placed Roma hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Juventus, so La Vecchia Signora need a win to have any hope of qualifying for the Europa League.
The Serie A Matchday 38 odds price Juventus as -115 ATS and moneyline odds for this match. Angel di Maria, Leandro Paredes, and Adrien Rabiot will reportedly all be leaving the club at the end of the season, and this could be their last match with Juve.
Meanwhile, two Udinese defenders, Jaka Bijol and Marvin Zeegelaar, are suspended for this match as a few key players are injured. Forwards Isaac Success and Gerard Deulofeu are not expected to play on Sunday. Udinese +½ displays -105 odds, and the home team also show +305 odds to win the match.
A draw sits at +260 odds. Given their points deduction, it would mean that Juventus finish the season in seventh place in Serie AJuventus finish the season in seventh place in Serie A, given their points deduction. Juve won the reverse fixture vs. Udinese 1-0 and are unbeaten in the last five meetings of this fixture.
Although Juventus have conceded five goals in their last two matches, they still have the third-best defensive record in the league. Under 2.5 goals sit at -115 odds as Udinese have failed to score twice in their last three matches.
AC Milan were the biggest beneficiary of Juventus’ 10-point deduction. The Rossoneri sealed Champions League qualification by beating Juve 1-0 last weekend as Olivier Giroud scored the game’s only goal. Their opponents on Sunday, Verona, are fighting for their Serie A lives, on the other hand.
Verona will go down to Serie B if they lose on Sunday, as Spezia hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over them. A draw or win could ensure survival, depending on Spezia’s result at Roma.
The problem for Verona is that they’ve struggled mightily vs. the Rossoneri in recent years. Milan are unbeaten in their last eight matches vs. Hellas Verona and have won the previous four.
The Serie A odds also price Milan as -135 ATS and moneyline favorites in their season finale. With the news of Milan’s UCL qualification, talisman Rafael Leao signed a new contract with the team, which is huge going forward. If Verona are relegated, many of their best players could move elsewhere.
So, the +355 underdogs will go all out to get their first win over Milan at the San Siro in the 21st century. Verona +.5 sits at +115 odds for Sunday’s match, and they have drawn four of their last seven road games at Milan.
If Hellas get another draw, which displays +280 odds, they’ll stay in Serie A if Spezia lose to Roma. Hellas have scored more Serie A goals than only last-placed Sampdoria this season, and leading scorer Simone Verdi has just five goals. With no particular impetus for Milan and Verona’s struggles to score, it’s no surprise that under 2.5 goals sit at -115 odds.
Before taking on Spezia on Sunday, AS Roma contest the Europa League final on Wednesday vs. Sevilla. Expect Jose Mourinho’s Roma to go all out on Wednesday as a win is their only route into the 2023-24 Champions League. This match’s outlook significantly depends on Wednesday’s result.
If Roma win, their stars can rest vs. Spezia, who are fighting off relegation. Should Roma lose to Sevilla, who have won all six of their previous Europa League final appearance, Sunday’s game takes on a much greater importance.
Just one point ahead of seventh-placed Juventus, Roma may need to win vs. Spezia to seal a place in the Europa League. Currently, Roma are even money ATS and moneyline favorites for Sunday’s match. In five previous Serie A meetings, Roma are 4-1-0 vs.
Spezia and have shut out Spezia in the last three matches. Spezia are level on points with 18th-placed Verona but hold the tiebreaker. So, as long as Spezia win or get the same result as Verona on Sunday, they’ll stay in Serie A. However, Spezia have failed to score in three of their last four matches.
Spezia +½ comes in at -120 Serie A Matchday 38 odds but they’re winless in their last ten matches on the road. They have compiled just a 2-5-11 record away from home this season but could absolutely use a result here. A win will remove all doubt and keep them in Serie A for at least another year.
Spezia sit at +265 moneyline odds in this one and a draw displays +250 odds. Although Roma are favorites, they haven’t won any of their last Serie A matches. Both teams have averaged under a goal per game in their last five matches and under 2.5 goals are priced at -125 odds.
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