Roma vs AC Milan Odds, Preview

Roma Protecting One Goal Lead

All-Italian Quarter-Final Wraps Up

The first legs of the Europa League Quarter-Final brought some surprises. Atalanta destroyed Liverpool 3-0 and Roma took down AC Milan 1-0 in Milan. While Atalanta should hold their lead over Liverpool through the second leg, anything can happen on Thursday when Roma host AC Milan. The only certainty is that an Italian team will be going through to the Semifinal. As the Giallorossi protect their one goal lead at the Stadio Olimpico, we’ll cover the Roma vs AC Milan odds.

Roma vs AC Milan

Date, time:
Location: Stadio Olimpico, Rome, Italy

Roma vs AC Milan Head-to-Head

Last Thursday, Roma broke a nine game winless streak vs. AC Milan. In their first win at the San Siro vs. AC Milan since 2017, Gianluca Mancini scored the game’s only goal. The Roma vs AC Milan odds listed the visitors as +360 pregame underdogs. Milan outshot Roma 25-10 but some hard nosed defending from the Giallorossi led to a clean sheet.

In fact, Roma’s 1-0 victory marked their first clean sheet vs. AC Milan in the last 14 games. Milan have still won five of the previous eight matches and haven’t lost to Roma at the Stadio Olimpico since 2019. Last Thursday was the first meeting between the two sides in UEFA competition.

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Roma Without N’Dicka, Cristante

There were scary scenes at the Bluenergy Stadium on Sunday as Roma defender Evan N’Dicka collapsed in the second half of the Giallorossi’s match at Udinese. N’Dicka was stretchered off the field and gave a thumbs-up as he left, but the match was suspended until further notice. N’Dicka appears to have suffered pulmonary trauma, as initial tests were inconclusive. The match was level at one before the Ivory Coast defender collapsed in the 78th minute. Romelu Lukaku had equalized for Roma on a powerful header from a Bryan Cristante cross.

Over the last three months, Roma have built a new identity under Daniele De Rossi. They’re playing with confidence and last week they broke a nine game winless streak vs. AC Milan. The Giallorossi have lost just one home match since De Rossi took over, which was in Serie A to Inter Milan. Under Jose Mourinho, Roma finished in second place in the Group G Europa League standings and De Rossi helped them advance past Feyenoord and Brighton.

Roma have made European finals in each of the last two seasons and have lost just one European match at home in their last 24. Including Sunday’s abandoned match, Roma have conceded just one goal in their last five games. Scoring has been a bit of an issue, though, as they haven’t scored two goals in a game in any of their previous six. While N’Dicka won’t play on Thursday, Sardar Azmoun is also injured, and Cristante is out due to a suspension.

AC Milan Winless in Last Two

Following the midweek loss to Roma, AC Milan’s Serie A match on Sunday at Sassuolo got off to a horrific start. Andrea Pinamonti scored for Sassuolo just four minutes in, and Armand Lauriente doubled the hosts’ lead six minutes later. Playing catch up, Rafael Leao got a goal back for Milan midway through the half. Lauriente scored again early in the second half, but goals from Luka Jovic and substitute Noah Okafor allowed the Rossoneri to come away with a point in a 3-3 draw.

AC Milan were among the favorites to win the Europa League heading into the first leg. Now, with a one-goal deficit, they have +1100 odds of winning the Europa League Final. Leao sparked Milan’s comeback on Sunday and he’ll once again be key come Thursday. The Portuguese winger has scored in three of his last four matches and is a dynamic player.

Fikayo Tomori was out for last week’s match vs. Roma due to a suspension but he’s back for this one. Fellow defender Pierre Kalulu is out injured and Simon Kjaer is likely to be out as well,  so Stefano Pioli needs Tomori badly for this one. Meanwhile, goalkeeper Mike Maignan missed the match at Sassuolo but should be available here. Midfielder Tomasso Pobega has also missed quite a bit of time lately and remains out.

Roma vs AC Milan Match Analysis & Odds

Last week, Roma did well to end AC Milan’s seven game winning streak and this will be a huge test for the Giallorossi. Despite playing on the road, it is AC Milan who are favorites for this one. The Europa League odds price the Rossoneri as +140 favorites and Milan pk comes in at -135 odds. Roma know they just need a draw (+240) to book their place in the Europa League Semifinal for a second straight season.

The Roma vs AC Milan odds also list the Giallorossi as +190 moneyline underdogs. While Pioli didn’t trot out AC Milan’s strongest lineup over the weekend, that absolutely won’t be the case on Thursday. Olivier Giroud and Christian Pulisic should slot back in and they’ll look to be more clinical this time around. Giroud had a chance to level the score late on in the first leg but hit the woodwork. Bettors can also consider Roma pk at +105 odds and they’ve lost just two of their 22 home matches this season, in all competitions.

AC Milan are one of the only two clubs to defeat Roma at the Stadio Olimpico in 2023-24 but that match was back in September. Under 2.5 goals are listed at -115 odds for this one as Roma have been superb defensively as of late. Expect to see the Mancini-Chris Smalling pairing in the center of defense for Roma once again.


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